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Friday October 8, 2010 - 15:02:45 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

US Market Update

Dow +5 S&P -.25 NASDAQ -9
***Economic Data***
- (PO) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: -€1.5B v -€1.2B prior
- (CA) Net Change in Employment: -6.6K v 10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (CL) Chile Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 2.0%e; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: % v 0.6%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Housing Starts: 186K v 179.0Ke v 183.3K prior
- (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -95K v -5Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: 64K v 75Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -6K v +2Ke
- (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.6% v 9.7%e
- (US) Sept Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.2 v 34.2e
- (US) Aug Wholesale Inventories: 0.8% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Bank of Canada Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey: -22.3 v -24.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: 29.00 v 25.00 prior

- Major US stock indices are holding near the unchanged mark after the monthly jobs figures left the Bernanke put firmly entrenched. The dollar lost early gains, short-term Treasury yields hit record lows and US equity futures spiked after a worse than expected US jobs solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve would step in to support the economy. Total nonfarm payrolls declined by 95K handily missing the estimate of -6K and was hammered by cuts at the state level. Private payrolls continued to muddle along in September. The preliminary estimate for September was slightly below consensus at 64K, but the prior two months were revised up by a total of 36K, leaving the level about in line with expectations. The 91K average gain in nonfarm payrolls over the past three months is not sufficient to meet the Fed's goals for the labor market, and will likely leave the balance sheet expansionists on the FOMC anxious to begin a new round of asset purchases. The
US benchmark 10-year yield continues the lowest rate since Jan of 2009 at 2.35%. Gold prices have rebounded $20 from this morning's electronically traded low of $1325.

- Agriculture related names gapped up on the
US open after the release of the USDA's world agriculture supply and demand report. Grain futures opened limit up on the CBOT exchange. Deere and Agco are each up 5% or more while fertilizer names are also rallying.

- Alcoa results signaled the official start of Q3 earnings season and were greeted with a JP Morgan upgrade before the open. The company raised its 2010 forecast for global usage of aluminum by one percentage point to 13% y/y helping drive gains in metals and mining stocks across the board.

- Headline roulette saw the FX markets in a volatile mode due to plethora of speakers and a key
US employment report. The USD strengthened into payrolls aided by comments from Fed's Bullard and German Gov't spokesperson. Bullard noted that the case for further QE was not that obvious while the Germany added that USD might be undervalued due to Fed monetary policy. However a softer US Non-farm payroll report sent the greenback weaker with EUR/USD re-approaching the 1.40 handle. The USD/JPY moved below the 82.00 level with no sign of any BOJ intervention.

- Sentiment quickly reversed after EU's Juncker expressed the Euro was too strong at the current time and the pair dipped towards 1.3850. BOE's Posen added more volatility when he noted that both EU and the US should resist in devaluing currencies and dealers noted that here was a dissenting voice in the relentless rhetoric on the CNY heading into the weekend IMF Fall Summit. The greenback was weaker during the mid-NY morning with EUR/USD at 1.3940, USD/JPY testing 81.80 and GBP/USD inching its way back towards the 1.60 neighborhood

***Looking Ahead***
- 14:25 Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation on Panel in Washington
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- Weekend G7 and IMF meetings in Washington DC


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