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Friday October 8, 2010 - 15:02:45 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

US Market Update

Dow +5 S&P -.25 NASDAQ -9
***Economic Data***
- (PO) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: -€1.5B v -€1.2B prior
- (CA) Net Change in Employment: -6.6K v 10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (CL) Chile Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 2.0%e; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: % v 0.6%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Housing Starts: 186K v 179.0Ke v 183.3K prior
- (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -95K v -5Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: 64K v 75Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -6K v +2Ke
- (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.6% v 9.7%e
- (US) Sept Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.2 v 34.2e
- (US) Aug Wholesale Inventories: 0.8% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Bank of Canada Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey: -22.3 v -24.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: 29.00 v 25.00 prior

- Major US stock indices are holding near the unchanged mark after the monthly jobs figures left the Bernanke put firmly entrenched. The dollar lost early gains, short-term Treasury yields hit record lows and US equity futures spiked after a worse than expected US jobs solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve would step in to support the economy. Total nonfarm payrolls declined by 95K handily missing the estimate of -6K and was hammered by cuts at the state level. Private payrolls continued to muddle along in September. The preliminary estimate for September was slightly below consensus at 64K, but the prior two months were revised up by a total of 36K, leaving the level about in line with expectations. The 91K average gain in nonfarm payrolls over the past three months is not sufficient to meet the Fed's goals for the labor market, and will likely leave the balance sheet expansionists on the FOMC anxious to begin a new round of asset purchases. The
US benchmark 10-year yield continues the lowest rate since Jan of 2009 at 2.35%. Gold prices have rebounded $20 from this morning's electronically traded low of $1325.

- Agriculture related names gapped up on the
US open after the release of the USDA's world agriculture supply and demand report. Grain futures opened limit up on the CBOT exchange. Deere and Agco are each up 5% or more while fertilizer names are also rallying.

- Alcoa results signaled the official start of Q3 earnings season and were greeted with a JP Morgan upgrade before the open. The company raised its 2010 forecast for global usage of aluminum by one percentage point to 13% y/y helping drive gains in metals and mining stocks across the board.

- Headline roulette saw the FX markets in a volatile mode due to plethora of speakers and a key
US employment report. The USD strengthened into payrolls aided by comments from Fed's Bullard and German Gov't spokesperson. Bullard noted that the case for further QE was not that obvious while the Germany added that USD might be undervalued due to Fed monetary policy. However a softer US Non-farm payroll report sent the greenback weaker with EUR/USD re-approaching the 1.40 handle. The USD/JPY moved below the 82.00 level with no sign of any BOJ intervention.

- Sentiment quickly reversed after EU's Juncker expressed the Euro was too strong at the current time and the pair dipped towards 1.3850. BOE's Posen added more volatility when he noted that both EU and the US should resist in devaluing currencies and dealers noted that here was a dissenting voice in the relentless rhetoric on the CNY heading into the weekend IMF Fall Summit. The greenback was weaker during the mid-NY morning with EUR/USD at 1.3940, USD/JPY testing 81.80 and GBP/USD inching its way back towards the 1.60 neighborhood

***Looking Ahead***
- 14:25 Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation on Panel in Washington
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- Weekend G7 and IMF meetings in Washington DC

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
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