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Saturday October 9, 2010 - 01:14:50 GMT
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Forex Traders Say “Now What” after Jobs Data Report

Forex Traders appeared to be saying “now what” based on the way the currency markets traders on Friday after the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Instead of saying “now what”, they should be saying “how much” as in how much will the Fed ante up to stop the U.S. economy from completely derailing?


While today’s employment data didn’t actually surprise anyone, it did show that the jobs outlook is still bleak. Since the U.S. Dollar was driven into the ground this week, it is clear that traders were already pricing this report into the market. The pause in the trend on Thursday and the hesitation moves on Friday could be indicating that traders are now thirsting for more information. This information is how much is the Fed willing to pump into the economy, how they are going to do it and where is the money going to go?


The phrase “shock and awe” hit the markets late this week. Some traders believe the Fed is going to attempt to stimulate the economy in one fell swoop. In other words, if they commit a trillion dollars to quantitative easing, then do it all at one time. Others expect the Fed to tell the market how much they are committing then announce that it will be spread out over a period of time. A third option may be to tell the market the amount then pledge to take a “watch and see” approach as they bleed small amounts of cash into the markets. One thing the Fed doesn’t want to do is short change the economy at this time.


After completing a Fibonacci retracement of the 1.5144 to 1.1876 range at 1.3896 and actually trading through the level, the EUR USD’s upside momentum has slowed down. On Thursday it came close to posting a closing price reversal top which would have caught the eye of top-pickers, instead the break sort of whimpered indicating the bulls are still in control.


If selling pressure is to begin then there is no better place than between the Fib level at 1.3896 and the psychological 1.4000 level. I said selling pressure because I don’t believe there will be aggressive shorting. I also feel that smart money is already long and isn’t too excited about piling on new positions this deep in the uptrend. This means that big money may decide to pare their positions enough to scare the weaker longs and those late to the party, out of the market.


The funny thing about trends is they seem to be the easiest to trade but with each passing day the trader in the trend has this fear that the trend will end and he will have to give back some of his hard earned profits. Others want to be extremely “disciplined” and ride the trend until it changes. Still others who missed the trend can’t seem to wait to play the reversal. I guess this is what makes the market. 


Remember just a few months ago when analysts were talking about the demise of the Euro. Some traders were saying at that time that institutions and hedge funds were never going to stop pressing this market lower. The downtrend in the Euro at that time was being fueled by an event or a series of events. Those tend to have shorter cycles. Currently the EUR USD is being driven by a policy. The current weak Dollar policy instigated by the Fed and blessed by the Treasury could be with us for a long time.


Technically, if 1.4028 is the top of this swing, then aggressive traders can start looking for a 50% retracement of the rally from 1.2644. This makes 1.3336 a potential downside target.


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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

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