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Saturday October 9, 2010 - 01:15:32 GMT
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Weekly Gold Finishes Higher, Daily Looks Toppy

Weekly December Gold closed higher for the week. Even though the market closed up on Friday, the closing price reversal top on Thursday is still in place, indicating a possible short-term top. While a change in trend is not indicated at this time, the closing price reversal top could be indicating the start of a substantial correction.


Upside momentum stopped Thursday during the night session a few hours before the European Central Bank announcement while the acceleration to the downside started right around the time ECB President Trichet started talking.


The current chart pattern suggests the market is due for a correction. Uncertainty over the size of the Fed’s upcoming quantitative easing could make traders worried enough to begin paring long positions. Overbought oscillators and indicators may also trigger the start of decent move to the downside. Ultimately, however, the buyers are going to have to pull their bids in order for this market to break.


Technically, the closing price reversal top could be the start of a 50% correction of the last main range of $1237.90 to $1366.00. The first downside target is $1302.00, followed by $1286.80.  The break could be labored, however, because of three uptrending Gann angles at $1367.30, $1343.70 and $1321.90.  If you miss the short side, don’t worry. Buyers are likely to step in if this market retreats to $1302.00 to $1286.80.


Forex Traders appeared to be saying “now what” based on the way the currency markets traders on Friday after the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Instead of saying “now what”, they should be saying “how much” as in how much will the Fed ante up to stop the U.S. economy from completely derailing?


While today’s employment data didn’t actually surprise anyone, it did show that the jobs outlook is still bleak. Since the U.S. Dollar was driven into the ground this week, it is clear that traders were already pricing this report into the market. The pause in the trend on Thursday and the hesitation moves on Friday could be indicating that traders are now thirsting for more information. This information is how much is the Fed willing to pump into the economy, how they are going to do it and where is the money going to go?


The phrase “shock and awe” hit the markets late this week. Some traders believe the Fed is going to attempt to stimulate the economy in one fell swoop. In other words, if they commit a trillion dollars to quantitative easing, then do it all at one time. Others expect the Fed to tell the market how much they are committing then announce that it will be spread out over a period of time. A third option may be to tell the market the amount then pledge to take a “watch and see” approach as they bleed small amounts of cash into the markets. One thing the Fed doesn’t want to do is short change the economy at this time.


After completing a Fibonacci retracement of the 1.5144 to 1.1876 range at 1.3896 and actually trading through the level, the Euro’s upside momentum has slowed down. On Thursday it came close to posting a closing price reversal top which would have caught the eye of top-pickers, instead the break sort of whimpered indicating the bulls are still in control.


If selling pressure is to begin then there is no better place than between the Fib level at 1.3896 and the psychological 1.4000 level. I said selling pressure because I don’t believe there will be aggressive shorting. I also feel that smart money is already long and isn’t too excited about piling on new positions this deep in the uptrend. This means that big money may decide to pare their positions enough to scare the weaker longs and those late to the party, out of the market.


The funny thing about trends is they seem to be the easiest to trade but with each passing day the trader in the trend has this fear that the trend will end and he will have to give back some of his hard earned profits. Others want to be extremely “disciplined” and ride the trend until it changes. Still others who missed the trend can’t seem to wait to play the reversal. I guess this is what makes the market. 


Remember just a few months ago when analysts were talking about the demise of the Euro. Some traders were saying at that time that institutions and hedge funds were never going to stop pressing this market lower. The downtrend in the Euro at that time was being fueled by an event or a series of events. Those tend to have shorter cycles. Currently the December Euro is being driven by a policy. The current weak Dollar policy instigated by the Fed and blessed by the Treasury could be with us for a long time.


Technically, if 1.4028 is the top of this swing, then aggressive traders can start looking for a 50% retracement of the rally from 1.2644. This makes 1.3336 a potential downside target.



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