Sunday October 10, 2010 - 23:28:46 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research- Morning Report (Westpac)
Morning Report Monday 11 October 2010
News and views
A weak US payrolls report cemented expectations for another round of Fed stimulus sending the USD broadly lower on Friday. US payrolls fell 95k in Sep while private payrolls rose 64k, below consensus for 75k gain. Most of the detail was discouraging. EUR was whippy however and struggled to capitalise on the weaker US payrolls report. Surprisingly less dovish comments from Fed voter Bullard ("we could push it off a meeting or two") and Europe's Juncker ("the euro is too strong") held EUR back. EUR initially spiked US1 cent on the US payrolls report to highs of 1.3984 but fell back as low as 1.3834 before settling down in a 1.3910-40 range into the weekend. USD/JPY tumbled to another 15 year low of 81.72, closing for a second day below BoJ intervention levels of mid-September. AUD and NZD had a heavy feel in Europe but turned higher on the US jobs report. From near 0.9720 the AUD rose to 0.9860 where it settled into the close. The NZD rose from near 0.7440 to highs of 0.7562 on the jobs data.
The US Dept of Agriculture slashed their estimates of the US corn crop due to excessive early rains setting agricultural commodities alight - wheat rose 9.1%, soybeans +6.5%, corn +6.0%, coffee +5.0% while sugar jumped 4.6%. US 10yr Treasury yields tumbled to fresh trend lows after the US payrolls report (-8bp to lows of 2.33%) but as equities grinded higher into the close yields rose to be unchanged on the session. The Dow rose 57pts and closed above 11000 for the first time since early May 2010. Gold registered more "modest" gains than we have been accustomed to of late rising "just" $13.20" to close the week at $1340.65.
US non-farm payrolls down 95k in Sep, their fourth consecutive monthly decline. In some of the key detail, the report was very close to our forecast of a 50k private payrolls gain and an 80k fall in temporary Census workers. In the event, private rose 64k and 77k Census workers were laid off - but what we missed was that a further 83k state and local government jobs were axed last month. We suspect this is due to budget constraints forcing administrators to cut back on services and workers. On an ex Census basis, payrolls fell 18k; September is the first month that ex Census payrolls have fallen since January 2010.
Other detail in the report was not spectacular. Sep's weakness relative to Aug was mostly in construction and state/local governments. The separate household survey found 141k new jobs in Sep, down from 290k in Aug but still enough to pull the jobless rate down slightly from above 9.6% to below 9.6% although it was unchanged after rounding. Hours worked were unchanged as were hourly earnings so Sep was a disappointing month from a household income perspective. Also with hours worked in manufacturing down 0.3%, Sep might be the first month since June last year that industrial production posts a decline.
US wholesale inventories up 0.8% in August, on top of an upwardly revised 1.5% jump in July. That's pretty solid, but factory stocks rose only 0.1% so overall August business inventories (due 15/10) should be more subdued.
Fedspeak: More officials have been weighing into the further quantitative easing debate. Today St Louis Fed president Bullard said "the risk of double dip recession has probably receded some...the economy hasn't slowed so much that it's an obvious case to do something... maybe we should push it off a meeting or two and see how the data come in".
Japanese trade balance came in above expectations at JPY1179bn in Aug, though the Aug outcome was a step down from July's JPY1464bn. In Aug, exports fell 6.5% while imports were broadly unchanged. Investment income rose by 20% in Aug after declining by a similar amount in July.
Canada jobs down 7k in Sep, the second monthly job loss in three months although it was due to a 44k drop in part-time jobs with full-time up 38k. Still, it is clear that the jobs trend is slowing, from 76k per month in Q2 to just a 6k average in Q3. Also housing starts fell a further 1.5% in Sep. Plus, two Bank of Canada surveys to report. The business outlook survey showed a rise in future sales from Q2's 25 to 29 in Q3 (but down from 50 in Q4 last year). The senior loan officer survey edged up from -25% to -22% in Q3, which means a slight tightening in credit conditions for the first quarter in seven.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Local markets will open to plenty of comments from the annual IMF and World bank, G20 Deputy Finance Ministers and G7 meetings in Washington over the weekend. There is no pressure for coordination with no formal communiquĂ© on the agenda, guaranteeing a garbled message from policymakers on FX markets. AUD and NZD both closed Friday near session their highs and should remain well supported on the local open. AUD and NZD both remain a strong buy on dips.
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