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Monday October 11, 2010 - 10:34:46 GMT
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European Market update: China currency firms ahead of semi-annual US Treasury Dept currency report (TTN)

Monday, October 11, 2010 5:46:34 AM

 European Market update: China currency firms ahead of semi-annual US Treasury Dept currency report


***Economic Data***
- China to raise reserve requirement for its six largest banks
- (FR) France Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.6%e
- (FR) France Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Sept CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prior
- (TU) Turkey Aug Current Account (TRY) -3.0B v -2.6Be
- (DE) Denmark Aug Current Account (DKK): 7.5B v 8.5Be; Trade Balance Ex-Shipping: 5.2B v 7.0Be
- (DE) Denmark Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e
- (DE) Denmark Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.6% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 12.8% v 9.6%e; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: 9.5% v 6.4%e
- (NO) Norway Sept CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9%e
- (NO) Norway Sept CPI Underlying M/M: 0.7% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Producer Prices (Incl Oil) M/M: -0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 19.7% v 12.9% prior
- (GR) Greece Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.1 v -8.6% prior

Fixed income:
- (GE) Germany sold €4.5B in 6-Month BuBills; avg yield 0.6140% v 0.4148% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.7x prior

- Weekend IMF produced little more than platitudes regarding the need for greater coordination
- CNY made a new post-reval high against the USD ahead of semi-annual US Treasury Dept currency report due out on Oct 15th
- PBoC research that argues for an annualized limit of 3% be applied to currency appreciation and that China need not worry about U.S. lawmakers
- Reportedly China's PBoC to increase the Reserve Requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps to 17.50% for its six largest banks for a two month period

- As of 05:37 FTSe100 +0.24% at 5671.56, CAC40 +0.35% at 3776.21, DAX +0.24% at 6306.65, EuroStoxx50 +0.20% at 2791.12

- European shares traded higher today following US and Asian gains. Friday's weaker than expected
US jobs data renewed speculations of Fed's QE. Commodities are also continuing to trade higher sustaining resource- related names. Banks are among the gainers.
- In individual names
UK's Ladbrokes [LAD.UK] shares opened 2.5% after reporting a revenue increase of 12% on a yearly basis and an increase of 128% in operating profit. Group noted that the consumer environment was to remain challenging but it expected to meet its full year expectations. Carrier Easyjet [EZJ.UK] opened up by 4.9% after settling the two-year dispute with easyGroup IP Licensing Limited and Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou over the terms and operation of the "easyJet" brand licence. John Woods [WG.UK] climbed 1.4% after its trading update. Company expected higher bidding volumes, which along with recent contract awards, are expected to contribute to an improvement in performance in the second half and into 2011. Electricite de France [EDF.FR] opened down by less than 1% after press reports noting that Constellation Energy had exited negotiations on a $7.5 billion loan guarantee to build a nuclear reactor in Maryland with Electricite de France. German steelmaker Salzgitter [SZG.GE] traded 2.9% higher after CFO told German press that company posted higher revenue in Q3 after raising prices for steel products.

There was a plethora of comments following the weekend IMF meeting.
- EU's Junker commented that need to avert a global currency war and added that the current Euro level did not hurt economic recovery but he did express concerned over its volatility
- ECB's Constancio Not committed to additional stimulus exit measure for Q1 and he also added that the Euro currency volatility was a concern . The ECB member stated that there were no no pre-commitments to unwind special measures in 2011
- ECB's Quaden walked the standard central bank line and noted that domestic price pressures were contained in the EU area and were likely to stay within price stability limits. He added that he did not see any deflationary risks in euro zone
- ECB's Nowotny commented in a press interview that the ECB did not have an exchange rate target but urged the US and China to address imbalances in their own countries. The
US would have to reduce the internal and external deficits China should increase internal consumption.
ECB's Bini-Smaghi: Slowdown in
US economy is not surprising but reiterates that ECB policy remains accommodative.
Germany Finance Ministry stated that it was opposed extending
Greece's repayment schedule. The MOF stated that Greece must establish a track record when it comes to its deficit but did concede the country had implemented budget cuts thus far
- PBoC Advisor Li reiterated his country views that China was willing to accept a gradual yuan currency gain and stressed that outside pressure on China policy was counterproductive
- Iran expects no change in OPEC quota at the scheduled Oct meeting
- Libya Oil Min stated that he sought oil at $100/bbl by of 2010 and that OPEC to maintain production at steady level at Oct meeting in Vienna> Libya sought for OPEC to call for more quota observance and discuss higher commodity prices

Currencies: USD began the European unloved and unwanted following the IMF weekend meeting but greenback did muster up some retracement momentum on unconfirmed reports that China's PBoC would increase the deposit requirement for its six largest bank. Comments from ECB Constancio that the ECB was not committed to exit steps also provided a rational for profiting taking. There were some euro supportive events. ECB's Nowotny did add that the central bank did not have an exchange rate target. Better Italian industrial production data and a narrowing of European peripheral spreads against the 10-year German Bund.
- The USD remained vulnerable to key psychosocial with 1.40 still approachable in the EUR/USD, 1.60 in GBP/USD, the pivotal 82.00 in USD/JPY and parity plays still linger in both USD/CAD and AUD/USD

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
- In the Telegraph, Evans-Pritchard commented on the issue of currency wars in the context of speculation of additional 'QE' from the Fed. He suspects that the Fed might use QE in order to partner with the Treasury in helping to weaken the dollar and thus force other countries to revalue their currencies, though it is too early for the Fed to conduct additional QE because double dip recession risks have eased since the summer. Additionally, the article noted that one risk of additional quantitative easing from the Fed could lead to a sharp rise in commodity prices.
- The IMF capital markets head Jose Vinals said that there are no bubbles in government bond markets. According to the FT Deutschland article, Vinals attributed the low yields for government bonds to low inflation expectations and modest economic growth rates.
- In preparation for massive spending cuts to the government budget, the WSJ previewed
Britain's spending review for the 20th October. According to the preview, this week British officials are expected to engage in negotiations to settle issues that have yet to be resolved in relation to the proposed cuts, including the issue of how large the cuts will be for the defense and welfare budgets. The cuts by the government are expected to be on average about 25% of the budgets of most government departments.

***Looking Ahead ***
- US, Canada gov'ts Holiday
- (RU) Russia Aug Trade Balance: $9.5Be v $11.0B prior
- (IS) Israel Sept Trade Balance: No est v -$677M prior
- (PO) Portugal Aug Construction Works Index: No est v 79.8 prior
- 9:00 (FR) France to Sell total €8.5B in four tranches of Bills
- 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day main refi; 7-day Term Deposit and 1-month tenders
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Gross Fixed Investment: 1.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Final Trade Balance: No est v -$699M prior
- Fed's Dudley to Speak at IIB Event in Washington
- 12:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet Speaking in Washington
- 14:45 US 150) Fed's Yellen Speaks on Fed Challenges in Denver


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