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Monday October 11, 2010 - 10:38:21 GMT
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FOREX NEWS - Dlr slips on U.S. policy outlook, no G7/IMF accord

6:20am EDT

* Lack of G7/IMF coordination hampers greenback

* Dollar speculative shorts largest since mid-2008

* China temporarily increases deposit reserve ratio

* Dollar hits 15-yr low vs yen but steadies at 82.00 JPY=

(Adds quote, detail)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Monday after world financial leaders failed to reach agreement on currency imbalances, leaving the Federal Reserve set to pursue loose monetary policy to support the ailing U.S. economy.

The IMF's failure to reach an accord on how to tackle the issue at meetings over the weekend seemed to ensure currency tensions would only fester further and left dealers wondering when more governments would take action to shift the burden of the falling dollar. [ID:nN10287368]

"There looks to be no basis for agreement on currency imbalances from the weekend meetings and the U.S. looks set to continue to pursue loose monetary policy going forward," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

The U.S. September employment report exacerbated concerns over its economy on Friday, showing the labour market shrank for the fourth consecutive month. Traders said the next focus would be on Fed minutes on Tuesday for fresh insight into the central bank's thinking on monetary easing measures.

Debate centres on whether the Fed will opt for a drip-feed QE or a "shock and awe announcement", with most investors thinking the trigger will be pulled at its next policy meeting in November.

The dollar's losses were slightly offset by China's decision, according to Reuters sources, to raise temporarily its deposit reserve ratio for six big banks on Monday, which dented risk appetite in early European trade but had no major market impact. [ID:nBJB003961].


The euro and the Australian dollar could prove to be the paths of least resistance to express a longer-term weak U.S. dollar view as Asian reserve managers diversify their foreign exchange reserves, though positioning may be stretched.

Currency speculators boosted bets against the dollar to $30 billion in the latest week, the largest bet against the U.S. currency since mid-2008. [ID:nN08169848] <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Graphic on FX positioning

Graphic on trade-weighted FX moves since 2007 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

"Where EUR/USD is concerned, the fact that we feel the initial, justifiable leg of dollar weakness has already run its course makes us apprehensive about speculative euro buying above $1.40," said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.

At 0940 GMT the euro was at $1.3935 EUR=, close to flat on the day, after earlier climbing to $1.4011, seeking to test last week's $1.4030 high.

Traders saw resistance at $1.4216, a level which acted as support on Dec. 22, when the euro was declining, together with the next key Fibonacci level at $1.4372, the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's fall from November to June.

The Australian dollar was at $0.9835 AUD=D4, down 0.1 percent from late New York trade on Friday, taking a slight hit on the China news but trading not far from a 28-year high hit last week at $0.9918.

The dollar sank to a 15-year low of 81.37 yen JPY= in early Asian trade but recovered to 82.00. Options traders highlighted a large 82.00 expiry for Monday's 1400 GMT cut, potentially restricting further movement on the day, along with the U.S. Columbus Day holiday.

Dollar/yen traded at 82.05, up 0.1 percent, while the dollar was down 0.1 percent against a currency basket .DXY at 77.228, close to a nine-month low of 76.906 hit on Thursday.

The risk of another round of intervention to weaken the yen seemed to have grown after Japan weathered the flurry of weekend G7 and IMF meetings with hardly any criticism of its recent bout of yen sales, but there was no sign of action on Monday.

(Graphics by Scott Barber)

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