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Tuesday October 12, 2010 - 15:13:26 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Fed Minutes Later

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Fed Minutes Later

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 12- Dealers early Tuesday are setting up for the release of the latest Fed policy board minutes later today. The most recent meeting, which was three weeks ago, is thought likely to provide further insight into the prospects for additional quantitative ease (QE2) at the upcoming FOMC meeting on November 3. The hands of the Fed are tied politically until after mid-term national elections on November 2. While U.S. equity markets were open on Monday, U.S. participation was minimal. 

Japanese markets were closed Monday as well, but put on a full session today. it is still unclear how strongly Japan will defend its 82.00 line in the sand for the USDJPY. That level was tested again today, but was re-established as support. FinMin Noda once again warned that the government was monitoring prices. We would not be surprised to learn that Tokyo ha been working though surrogates. The same goes for the suspicious selling of EURUSD above the 1.4000 line.

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The only remaining major market event scheduled for today is the FOMC minutes..

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:12
EUR 1.3797 -76 JPY 113.23 -69 JPY 129.77 -60
GBP 1.5812 -63 GBP 87.26 -13 CHF 153.53 40
CHF 0.9710 64 CHF 1.3397 15 CHF vs.    
JPY 82.07 -5       JPY 84.52 -61

The EURUSD is down on the day and the GBPUSD is lower. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation. In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on a weakening U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is steadu and EURCHF is unchanged. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is stable and the EURJPY cross is down. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:12
CAD 1.0163 25 AUD 0.9783 -53 Gold 1344 -9.95
CNY 6.6724 35 NZD 0.7491 -28 WTI 81.06 -0.84

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are higher vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is likely to tighten in November. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are lower. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are lower. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.36%, -3 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           9:12
NIK 9389 -200 DAX 6244 -66 DJIA 11010 9
HSI 23122 -86 FTSE 5607 -65 S&P 1165 1
SSEC 2841 34 SMI 6333 0 NAS 2402 0
ASX 4618 -79       TSE 12536 0

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

Forex Trading News

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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01:30 AU- Employment
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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