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Tuesday October 12, 2010 - 15:48:13 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Tuesday, October 12, 2010 11:21:56 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -30 S&P -2 NASDAQ +2.5

***Economic Data***
- (IC) Iceland Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.3% prior
- (SA) South Africa Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -3.6% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 8.6%e v 7.5% prior
- (EU) ECB drained €63.5B in 7-day term Deposit tender vs. €63.5B targeted
- (RU) Russia Aug Trade balance: $8.3B v $9.5Be
- (US) Sept
NFIB Small Business Optimism: 89.0 v 88.8 prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Oct 9th: +0.8% w/w; +2.6% y/y
- (PD) Poland Aug Current Account: -€1.1B v -€1.Be; Trade Balance: -€786M v -€628Me
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 9th: +2.5% y/y; MTD: +0.2% v Sept
- (US) Oct IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.4 v 44.5e prior
- (MX) Mexico Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.2%e

- Investors were skittish heading into the US trading session this morning following confirmatory reports in the Asia session that the PBoC had raised its reserve requirement. The dollar strengthened and investors headed for the relative safety of Treasuries, and both Asian and European equity market dipped lower (although
Shanghai recouped its losses and European bourses have returned to even). Focus is now totally on this afternoon's FOMC minutes release. Crude is headed toward the low end of its range seen over the last week, trading around $81.50, while gold is pivoting around the $1,350 level. US Treasury yields are a touch lower with the 10-year remaining below 2.4% ahead of this afternoon's three year auction.

- Autoparts manufacturer Johnson Controls is off a few percent after providing a first look at its FY11 outlook, which was largely in line with expectations. Industrial and construction supply name Fastenal is down nearly 5% despite meeting expectations in the firm's Q3 report. Global Payments has plunged 10% and remains at its lows after missing earnings expectations slightly in its Q1 report yesterday after the close. Video game reseller Gamestop is down 3% after an article discussing the negative impact of a court ruling from last month made the rounds. A Dallas Morning News article cites a federal appeals court case last month, Vernor vs. Autodesk, that could be applied to Gamestop and other video game resellers.

- Unconfirmed deal chatter moved multiple names in the premarket this morning. Cosmetics name
Avon jumped nearly 10% after a story in the UK's Daily Mail reported that that L'Oreal may be considering acquiring the company for $44/share. A L'Oreal spokesperson refused to comment on the rumor. Shares of AVP are heading straight back towards unchanged. JP Morgan called OfficeMax a potential LBO target, sending shares of OMX up 8%, although the name is only up 5% in mid morning trading. Pfizer said it would acquire King Pharma for $14.25/shr in cash, for a total deal value of $3.65B.

- The greenback gave up some of its earlier gains as the
New York session began, with the CHF pair leading the way. USD/CHF fell over 100 pips from one-week highs to test below the 0.96 level. EUR/USD headed back toward the 1.3830 area after testing 1.3775 earlier. CNBC comments from Pimco's El-Erian, in which he reiterated that he expected the Fed to move forward with QE2 in November, was one catalyst for the dollar weakness. In Europe, investors brushed off peripheral concerns about Ireland while the Greece/Germany 10-year bund spread moved below the 700 bps level for first time in about four months. Note that EUR/CHF reflected the overall soft tone of the euro, with the pair retesting below 1.33.

***Looking Ahead***
- Peru Aug Trade Balance: No est v $459M prior
- 11:45 Fed's Hoenig to Speak at NABE in Denver on U.S. Economy
- 12:20 ECB's Trichet Speaking in New York
- 13:00 US Treasury to sell $ B in 3-Year Notes
- 14:00 Minutes of Sept 21st FOMC Meeting
- 17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 10th: No est v -47 prior
- China Sept Trade Balance: $17.8B v $20.0B prior


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