European Market Update: Chinese Trade and FX reserve data reiterates call for CNY currency reform (TTN)
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
European Market Update: Chinese Trade and FX reserve data reiterates call for CNY currency reform
***Economic Data*** - (CH) China Sept New Yuan Loans (CNY) 595.5B v 500.0Be - (CH) China End-Sept FX Reserves: $2.648B v $2.5Be - (CH) China Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 19.0% v 19.2% prior - (FR) France Sept CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e - (FR) France Sept CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e - (SP) Spain Aug House transactions Y/Y: 29.6% v 16.4% prior - (SZ) Swiss Sept Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e - (CZ) Czech Aug Current Account (CZK): -18.1BB v -14.9Be - (SW) Sweden Sept AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7%e - (UK) Sept Jobless Claims Change: 5.3K v 4.5Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% v 4.5%e - (UK) Aug Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e - (UK) Aug ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.8%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 7.4%e - (PO) Portugal Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9% prior - (PO) Portugal Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0% prior - (SA) South Africa Aug Retail Sales Constant M/M: -1.4% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.6%
Fixed income: - (GE) Germany sold â‚¬4.18B in 2.25% Sept 2020 Bund; avg yield 2.29% v 2.39% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.9x prior - (SW) Sweden sold SEK2.5B in 6.75% 2014 Bond; avg yield 1.785% - (UK) DMO sold Â£1.2B in 4.25% 2027 Gilt; avg yield 3.662% v 4.472% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.15x v 2.47 - (RU) Russia sold RUB14.8B in OFZ Bond; avg yield 5.75% - (EU) ECB allotted $560M in its 7-day USD liquidity operation at fixed 1.19%; BOE had Zero in its allotment
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - FOMC minutes add momentum to risk trades. Two- yr highs in copper, with precious metals maintain firm tones.US Gov't 2 & 5 yr yields still near lows. - World welcomes back the Chilean miners as the rescue operation commences - INTC beats and raises its Q4 forecasts. - China Sept trade balance $16.9 vs $18.0Be; FX Reserves at record level - Hungary Central Bank Gov: Even much stronger CHF would cause no problem. - Warren Buffett: Euro faces real challenges ahead - Euro Zone Industrial Production beats expectations
Equities: - As of 05:40am ET EuroStoxx +1.55% at 2818, FTSE100 +1.26% at 5733, CAC40 +1.50% at 3805, DAX +1.48% at 6397
- European shares opened higher today and remained in positive territory boosted by FOMC's minutes which sent a clear signal that a second round of QE may be on the way. Positive sentiment was also aided by Intel's upbeat Q3 earnings. - ASML [ASML.NV] lifted semiconductors after opening up by 2% following earnings which beat analysts' estimates. Company's backlog and booking value had increased over the previous year and its profitability had improved. Company reaffirmed its outlook. - French IT name Atos Origin [ATO.FR] rose 1.5% after reporting better than expected results. Company reiterated its FY10 outlook and expected to return to organic sales growth in 2011. - Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] dropped 3.6% at the open as company announced a Â£3.3B rights issue. Issue was priced at HK$156.82/shr (1,280p/shr), discount of approx 33%. - Burberry [BRBY.UK] opened down 1% after its trading update. Same-store sales were up 9% but revenues were in line with estimates. Company expected for the second half, that wholesale revenue including China would be down by a low single-digit percentage at constant currency. - Solar Millenium [S2M.GE] dropped 14% in early trade after company cut its revenue guidance to â‚¬150M from â‚¬350M and expected a neutral or negative EBIT for the year. Company cited delays in the closing of the financing for the planned US power plants Blythe 1 and 2 in California.
Speakers: - IEA raised its 2010 and 2011 world oil demand by 300K bpd each. The 2010 world oil demand now forecasted to be 86.9M bpd and 2011 world oil demand at to 87.2M bpd. The EIA raises 2010 oil demand growth by 260K bpd to 2.15M bpd. It noted that oil markets to be comfortably supplied during most of 2011. It did add that a strong economic growth and weak USD could boost oil prices but that was viewed as unlikely in the short term. Lastly it cautioned that demand growth over 2M bpd could outrun supply - OECD's Gurria commented that the Euro might be on the high side at the 1.40 level . He added that should insist on no protectionism via currency markets but that currency intervention to reduce extreme volatility was legitimate - Russia Central Bank's Ulyukayev: Budget deficit not to exceed 3.5% of GDP this year; Gold and fx reserves reached $500B. - South Korea Fin Min Yoon commented that the domestic economy continued to face external risks, including slower economy and won volatility. He added that it would to take preemptive measures to deal with inflation. - South Africa Fin Min Gordhan stated that his country remained vulnerable to global economic activity and that global economy to remain fragile for some time. Credit demand reflects accommodative monetary policy. It sought a policy so ZAR currency would cushion the economy but targeted more competitive ZAR over time. South Africa would adjust policy as necessary to maintain macroeconomic stability and feasible growth rate. - Swiss gov stated that the Finance Ministry to prepare draft for 'too-big-to-fail' bill for consultation by the start of next yea - French Union: There may be fuel shortages in the country due to strike in 8-10 days - France Budget Min Baroin reiterated govt not to back down regarding increase in retirement age to 62 - Cyprus and Slovenia Fin Min both stated that they are concerned at the appreciation of the euro currency.
Currencies: The USD maintained its soft tome that was cemented by the combination of the FOMC minutes and ECB Weber comments on Tuesday. The Fed minutes inspired swing back towards QE but dealers are looking forward to Bernanke's speech on Friday for more concrete clues. The USD/CHF exhibited fresh all-times lows in Asia but reversed following the softer import price data out of Switzerland in the session. The better Euro Zone data provided the excuse to retest the 1.40 handle but the level is providing some resistance at this time. OECD's Gurria stated that the euro might be on the high side at the 1.40 level but USD buy stops are said to be building above that level. Chinese data released during the European session reiterates calls for CNY currency reform.
Geopolitical/ In the papers: - Strike actions in France continue to take their toll affecting various industries including French refineries. French union officials reported there may be fuel shortages in the country in eight to ten days due to the strikes. Also Total stated that the strikes will shut at least half of French oil refineries. - France's Budget Minister Baroin continued to defend the government's position on pension reform by reiterating it was not going to back down regarding the increase in retirement age. Note that the raise in both minimum retirement age, and the age to receive full state pension have already been approved. The remaining items of the pension bill are expected to be passed by parliament in few weeks time. - US Economist Paul Krugman commented on the upcoming G20 Meeting stating that he does not expect the yuan currency issues to be resolved there. He further said that China has definite influence over its currency.
***Looking Ahead *** - JP Morgan [JPM] expected to announce Q3 results - 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN3.0B in Fixed Rate Bonds - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 8th: No est v -0.2% prior - 7:00 (SZ) SNB Announces the Results of Federal Bonds Issues - 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept CPI M/M: +0.3%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.0% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug New Housing Price Index M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Import Price Index M/M: -0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.1% prior - 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Tender - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes Reopening - 16:30 (US) API Weekly Energy inventories - 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Trade Balance: $50.0Me v -$82.9M prior
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