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Wednesday October 13, 2010 - 10:20:12 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Fed Aftermath

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Fed Aftermath

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 13-  As expected the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting released Tuesday afternoon in NYC were a significant event.  The Fed has been making it known that this is its preferred method for communicating with the markets. The markets took the notes as a clear signal that additional quantitative ease is in the pipeline for as early as the next Fed meeting on November 3, one day after important mid-term elections in the U.S. which are expected to result in a change in direction in the political leadership in the U.S. On the other hand a hawkish posture by Bundesbank president and rumored eventual Trichet successor Weber has been giving the EUR a lift.

The Nikkei recovered despite the strong JPY today. The Chinese trade surplus unexpectedly contracted although forex reserves increased to USD 2.65 tln, partly on currency revaluation.  It is still unclear how strongly Japan will defend its 82.00 line in the sand for the USDJPY. That level is being tested again today. We would not be surprised to learn that Tokyo ha been working though surrogates. The same goes for the suspicious selling of EURUSD above the 1.4000 line.

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The U.S. will see weekly mortgage statistics, import prices and the API weekly energy inventory estimates. The Treasury will be holding a 10-yr auction.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:55
EUR 1.3982 71 JPY 114.54 71 JPY 129.98 72
GBP 1.5867 71 GBP 88.12 5 CHF 151.85 71
CHF 0.9570 2 CHF 1.3381 71 CHF vs.    
JPY 81.92 9       JPY 85.60 8

The EURUSD is up on the day and the GBPUSD is higher. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders are still watching the European sovereign debt situation. In the GBPmarkets are keeping an eye on a weakening U.K. economy.

The USDCHF is steady and EURCHF is higher. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.

The USDJPY is stable and the EURJPY cross is up. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:55
CAD 1.0064 -40 AUD 0.9879 19 Gold 1358 7.75
CNY 6.6662 -71 NZD 0.7575 26 WTI 82.80 1.03

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are higher vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently has been sending mixed policy signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, the RBA is likely to tighten in November. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are lower. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.46%, +3 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           9:55
NIK 9404 15 DAX 6396 91 DJIA 11020 0
HSI 23458 336 FTSE 5731 69 S&P 1170 0
SSEC 2661 -314 SMI 6448 0 NAS 2418 16
ASX 4620 -78       TSE 12576 -5

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Thu 26 Oct
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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