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Wednesday October 13, 2010 - 13:28:48 GMT
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Gold, Silver Appear to Be Waiting for Euro to Breakout to Upside

The weaker U.S. Dollar overnight has put December Gold in a position to rally further following a strong surge overnight to $1362.00. Although the rally stopped short of the recent main top at $1366.00, upside momentum seems to be building. Traders appear to be waiting for the Euro to take out its last main top at 1.4028 before attempting to push this market through the resistance.

 

Bullish December Silver traders also appear tentative near this week’s high at 23.67. Earlier in the week, a breakout above last week’s high at 23.53 failed to draw any buying interest, leading some traders to believe that a short-term top was forming.

 

Despite a slow down in buying interest this morning, buyers continue to support this market at a pace of about 16 cents per day since the major bottom was formed at 17.79. Today, the steep uptrending Gann angle support comes in at 23.39. This price is likely to control the short-term strength and direction of the market. A new main trend bottom has been formed at 22.35. A break through this level will turn the main trend down.

 

The December Euro has been on a tear since early Tuesday afternoon shortly after Federal Reserve policy makers gave further indications that they were ready to implement another round of money-creating stimulus.

 

The rally in the Euro was triggered after the Fed released its September minutes which showed several members wanted to resume buying large amounts of long-term government bonds soon.  Previously the Fed had hinted that this latest round of quantitative analysis would take place before long. Changing the language from “before long” to “soon” indicates that there is a sense of urgency.

 

Technically the Euro has been the main beneficiary since the release of the Fed minutes, outpacing all of the other major currencies to the upside. Overnight this market regained a major .618 retracement level at 1.3896 putting it in a strong position to rally further. 

 

Standing in the way of a test of the recent top at 1.4022 is a long-term downtrending Gann angle from the 1.5144 top at 1.4004. This angle stopped the rally late last week, but that was when conditions were overbought and traders were concerned about the upcoming U.S. employment report. Now that all of those conditions are out of the way, the Euro is likely to attempt to break out above 1.4022 to reaffirm its strong uptrend. If this occurs, then a new main bottom will be created at 1.3775. The main trend will turn down if this bottom is violated.

 

Adding additional support to the strength in the Euro was the news that German Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the European Central Bank’s bond-purchase plan, which bought around 63 billion Euros ($87 billion) of Euro-Zone government bonds on the secondary market since May, “should be phased out permanently”.

 

This statement sums up the current situation between the Dollar and the Euro. The Fed is still considering additional quantitative easing while the ECB is getting ready to exit this strategy.

 

 

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