Thursday April 14, 2005 - 00:34:18 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 14th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2015 ... 1.2038 ... 1.2074 ... 1.2098
Support....: 1.1985 ... 1.1966 ... 1.1933 ... 1.1896
While 1.2038-60 holds we look for a final dip to the 1.1928-39 area
Support in the 1.1931-53 area held with the recovery stalling within the 1.2060-98 target. This may well have completed the recovery but until 1.1966-85 breaks there is one small risk of a move back above 1.2038 which would allow a second test to the original 1.2074-98 target. Only a clean break here would suggest the uptrend was already resuming but we feel it should hold and cause a further move lower. Any earlier dip to 1.1928-39 would provide a good buying opportunity with stops at 1.1890.
We feel the current range trading is close to completion though we do need to be flexible as the range narrows. Any early rally to 1.2074-98 should not follow-through and would provide a good selling opportunity for losses down to the 1.1935-50 area. However, we may find that the drift lower will continue directly with loss of 1.1985 and 1.1966 causing a small dip to the 1.1928-39 area. However, we feel this should be the limit to the downside. Thus only a break of 1.1896 would imply a spike down to 1.1811-25 before finding a base.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th April 2005
Basically the structure is intact although the Wave a of Triangle Wave d moved up higher than expected to 1.2045. We feel that Wave b has potential to the 1.1931-53 area but from there look for Wave c to rally to the 1.2060-98 target to complete Triangle Wave d. Thus we would then expect one final dip in Wave e before the uptrend resumes above 1.2115 and higher.
14th April 2005
It is possible that the rally to 1.2074 completed Wave d of the triangle though we cannot totally rule out a second attempt higher to the 1.2074-98 area in a further internal ABC pattern higher. However, at some point we expect a move down to the 1.1930-50 area to complete Wave e which should then finish Wave -b- and allow Wave -c- to develop higher. Break above 1.2115 would confirm.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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