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Thursday October 14, 2010 - 03:43:15 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 14-Oct-2010 -0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Bull rampage continues as US markets closed the day with a 0.7% gain on S&P 500 and Dow, S&P (1178.10) and Dow (11,096.08). Fed Chief is scheduled to speak today and market is anticipating QE 2 to be unveiled. Dow is expected to gun for the April'10 high of 11,258 and even surpass it, major support for Dow comes is around 10,900.

Asia picked up from where it left yesterday, a second day of buying helping the key regional indices clock 1-2% gains. More money Fed pumps, more its floods the EM equity markets. Banking and resources stocks are leading the rally in Japan, China and Hong Kong, Hangseng 23,666 (up 0.89%), Nikkei 9575 (up 1.82%) and Shanghai 3014 (up 0.46%). Nifty is expected to open higher today after a stellar 2.35% gain yesterday (6233.90). Over the coming sessions we expect Nifty to aim for its 2008 high of 6357, support is at 6140-50.


COMMODITIES
Crude (83.75) has risen above 83 and is keeping up our bullish view intact. The weaker dollar and news on China's increased Crude imports triggered the price rise. A strong break above 84 might see 87-88 in the coming days. Support is seen at 80. IEA has said that China has overtaken the US as the world's largest energy cosumer. The US Crude inventories is due today.

Gold (1376.50) has risen sharply yesterday and is trading strong above 1370. The overall bullish sentiment is intact and strong break above 1380 might trigger further upmove towards 1400-20 in the coming days.


CURRENCIES
Dollar is getting creamed all over again. The Dollar Index is down to 77.003, just a hair's breath away from 76.906, the low seen exactly 1 week ago. Further fall towards 76.00 is likely by next week. But, there could be strong short-covering there. Please keep that in mind. The Sell-Dollar trade currently underway is a very one-sided trade.

The Euro (1.4078) has shot up, mostly in the Asian hours today and might rise further towards 1.4120. Beware profit-taking at higher levels, though. Dollar-Yen (81.30) has also seen a sharp decline and is trading below last week's low of 81.37. The last time the pair had been so low was in 1995 when the all time low of 79.80 was seen.

The Aussie (0.9971) is trading at an all time high and is sure to rise above 1.0000 either today or tomorrow. This is nothing less than historical. The Pound (1.5983) managed to rise strongly yesterday after having dipped in the earlier part of the week. Watch this currency as it is now likely to outperform the Euro over the coming weeks. Dollar-Swiss (0.9525) dived to a low near 0.9485 today, within its prolonged downtrend.

Among the Emerging currencies, the USDSGD (1.2936) has fallen below 1.3000 seeing a low of 1.2890 today and looks scarily bearish on the Monthly charts. However, the risk of near term pullback would be there. The Korean Won trades strong near 1113.10. The Brazilian Real has strengthened further and is trading near 1.6525. The question now is whether it can target the 2008 low near 1.5531.

Dollar-Rupee (44.51) had managed to remain above 44.45 yesterday. Apart from the fear of the RBI weakening the Rupee, you can't beat the fact that the Rupee is actually weakening against most other currencies.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 1 bps each to quote at 0.37% and 2.43%.

South Korea has left its 7-day repurchase rate unchaged at 2.25% on concerns about the weak global demand and storng Korean-Won. The market has expected an increase in rates by 25bps.

DATA TODAY
12:30 GMT US Sep Trade Balance
...Expected $ -43.5 Bln...Previous $ -42.8 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustrbal.shtml

12:30 GMT US Sep Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usppi.shtml

12:30 GMT US Sep Core PPI (YoY)
...Previous 1.3%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usppi.shtml

DATA YESTERDAY
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 53...Previous 62

UK Unemp
...Actual 7.7%...Previous 7.8%

EU Sep IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.1%

 

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