European Market Update: Move by Singapore prompts chatter of possible US/China currency deal in the works (TTN)
Thursday, October 14, 2010
European Market Update: Move by Singapore prompts chatter of possible US/China currency deal in the works
***Economic Data*** - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Oct 8th: $501.1B v $494.4B prior - (FI) Finland Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.2% prior - (FI) Finland Aug Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 5.6% v 4.5% prelim - (JP) Japan Sept Final Machine Tool Orders: 113.6% v 112.9% prelim - (HU) Hungary Aug Final Industrial Output M/M: 2.2% v 2.2% prelim; Y/Y: 14.9% v 14.9% prelim - (SP) Spain Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e - (SP) Spain Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e - (SP) Spain Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e - (NV) Netherlands Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.6% v -0.3%e - (GR) Greece July Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 11.9%e
Fixed Income: - 5:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total â‚¬ in 2015, 2023 and 2037 bonds - Sold â‚¬3.5B in Jun 3.00% 2015 BTPs; avg yield 2.53% v 2.69% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 1.44x prior - Sold â‚¬846M in 4.75% Aug 2023 BTPs; avg yield 3.93% v 4.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.49x v 1.51x prior
- Sold â‚¬1.15B in 4.00% Feb 2037 BTPs; avg yield 4.53% v 4.91% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 1.90x prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF50B in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 5.72% v 5.74%% prior - (UK) DMO sold Â£3.75M in 4.75% 2015 Gilts; avg yield 1.687% v 2.910% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 1.88x prior; Tail 0.4bps
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Singapore central bank widens its currency band. This follows the Russian central bank move on Wednesday. Dealers view this as a barometer of Asian economic growth - China researcher: World must be on guard for the deliberate strategy to devalue USD - Dealer chatter circulating of a possible deal between US and China on the CNY - FX Dealer: Everything trading higher except for "rectangular shaped greenish colored paper"
Equities: FTSE100 -0.10% at 5740, CAC40 +0.24% at 3837, DAX +0.65% at 6476, Eurostoxx50 +0.49% at 2854.
- European shares opened higher for the second day tracking Asian gains and on positive news flow from European corporate earnings. Syngenta [SYNN.SZ], world's largest maker of agricultural chemicals, opened higher by 4% and remained in positive territory following its Q3 sales report. Company beat estimates and maintained its FY guidance of continuing positive volume momentum for second half 2010. - Luxury brand LVMH [MC.FR] also rose after its Q3 sales beat estimates and its like-for-like sales rose 14%. Company said it would pursue targeted expansion in most promising markets Swiss pharmaceutical Roche's sales came almost in line with estimates and company affirmed its 2010 outlook but the market was not satisfied as its shares dropped lower. - Vodafone [VOD.UK] traded higher following upgrade at Nomura and the news that it would launch iPhone in Hungary and Netherlands. - Saint-Gobain [SGO.FR] announced it would begin the process of possible IPO for half of packing operations which is expected to occur in Q2. Shares opened up by 3%. In M&A news, Alfa-Laval [ALFA.SW] refused to raise bid for Munters (MTRS.SW)which remains at SEK75/shr. In Wednesday's session, Nordic Capital prepared to raise bid for Munters to SEK77/shr. Shares of Alfa-Laval were flat.
Speakers: - OPEC President commented just ahead of today's meeting in Vienna that the consensus was to maintain quotas at current levels. He added that oil price between $75 to $85 was not a threat to global economy - China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that China faced large capital inflow stress due to Yuan currency appreciation expectations. The regulator added that it should improve Yuan exchange rate mechanism over the long term and avoid giving "hot money" continuous arbitrage opportunity. It noted that Euro appreciation added $80B to the country's reserves for Q3 - China Ministry of Foreign spokesperson reiterated the country's view that a gradual increase of yuan flexibility was in both the world's and China's interest. China was dedicated to exchange rate mechanism reform but reiterated that yuan appreciation would not solve US trade deficit. - China Commerce Min (MOFCOM): Sharp CNY price swings could impact world markets - ECB's Noyer commented that it must find a currency solutions through cooperation and that the issue must be tackle on multiple fronts. There needs to be fundamental structural correction in the global monetary system and that different FX regimes penalized the whole world. On the theme of global rebalancing he noted that the US savings needed to rise while Chinese consumers must lower their saving and spend more - Japan Fin Min Noda commented that the recent G7 reconfirmed that emerging nations (like China) with trade surplus needed to work to make their currency rates more flexible. He added that it sought to deepen debate on currency cooperation at future G7 and G20 meetings. - BoJ Gov Shirakawa stated that he expected recent BOJ monetary easing to have impact in the long term and noted that it usually took 18 to 24 months for monetary policy to take effect. Company borrowing costs have fallen since BoJs recent easing - Major German Institutes released their bi-annual economic forecasts and raise EU 2010 GDP forecast to 1.6% v 0.9% prior but maintained 2011 GDP view at 1.3. the institutes stated that they believed the ECB would raise interest rates by 25 bps before the end of 2011. It noted that the probability for a new US recession was not negligible and that the Euro zone bailout plan should not be extended ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that it was an Illusion that the current crisis was cyclical and noted that both fiscal and monetary policies might not suffice. He added that wealthier advanced economies were now poorer and this would result in weaker growth in the future - BoE Tucker commented in a newspaper interview that the global economic recovery remained fragile. He added the commercial property market remained a concern in many countries and a threat towards the recovery - Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor commented that any looser monetary policy was difficult to justify - ECB Oct. Monthly Report: Reiterated the Trichet post rate decision press conference comments (as expected). The report noted that interest rates were appropriate, price developments remained moderate with inflationary expectations firmly anchored - (SP) Spanish banks Sept ECB borrowings at â‚¬112B v â‚¬126B m/m
Currencies: - The move ahead of the European morning by Singapore central bank to widen its currency bands et the theme for the session. Dealers noted that the more pressure on Asian and emerging market currencies continued to provide the catalyst of anti-dollar diversification pressures. The greenback exhibited weakness from the onset of the session and the move was complemented by record highs in gold and three decade highs in silver. There was a rumor circulating that a deal between US and China was in the works whereby China would allow the CNY to appreciate at a faster pace with the US taking a less aggressive QE stance. EUR/USD tested above 1.41 while USD/JPY hit fresh 15-year lows below 80.90. USD/CAD tested parity while AUD/USD just missed the milestone by 5 pips
Geopolitical/ In the papers: - The UK Treasury reported changes to its pension system, with an effective to begin in April 2011, which is to raise about Â£4.0 billion annually. The changes are likely to affect around 100,000 pension savers. - In the Financial Times, Martin Wolf noted that in the global currency war, the US will win by either inflating the rest of the world or force the nominal exchange rates against the US dollar
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Sept Real Industrial Production M/M: % v 0.6%e; Y/Y: % v 5.7%e - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: %v -1.2% prior - 6:00 (GE) ECB's Weber Speaks on Fiscal Policy - 6:30 (EU) ECB's Mersch Speaking in London - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Retail Sales M/M: 1.5%e%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 10.0%e%e v 10.9% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$2.3Be v -C$2.7B prior - - 8:30 (US) Aug Trade Balance: -$44.0Be v -$42.8B prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Producer Price Index (M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 445Ke v 445K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.45Me v 4.462M prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural gas Inventories - 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Energy inventories - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank Benchmark Interest rate Decision: Consensus expectations to leave the Benchmark rate unchanged at 7.00% - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-Year Bonds Reopening - 13:00 (EU) EU's Barroso Speaks at Friends of Europe Dinner - 17:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Bloomington, Minnesota - 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Nominal Overnight Rate Target decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.75% from the current 2.50% level
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.