European Market Update: Markets await to digested Bernanke's speech for more certain signals on the timing and scope of QE2 (TTN)
Friday, October 15, 2010
European Market Update: Markets await to digested Bernanke's speech for more certain signals on the timing and scope of QE2
***Economic Data*** - (EU) Euro Zone Sept EU-25 New Car Registrations: % v -12.9% prior - (IN) India Sept Wholesale Price Index: 8.6% v 8.5%e - (IN) India Primary Articles WPI Y/Y: 18.5% v 18.5% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 16.4% v 16.2% prior - (CZ) Czech Aug Export Price Index Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.7% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.9% prior - (CZ) Czech Sept PPI (Industrial) M/M: +0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2%e - (FI) Finland Aug Finland Current Account: â‚¬450M v â‚¬400M prior - (TU) Turkey July Unemployment Rate: 10.6% v 10.3%e - (SP) Spain Q3 House Price Index Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v -3.6% prior - (DE) Denmark Sept Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.1% prior - (SW) Sweden Sept Average House Prices (SEK): 1.88M v 2.09M prior - (AS) Austria Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7% prior - (IT) Italy Aug Total Trade Balance: -â‚¬3.3 v +â‚¬1.8B prior; Trade Balance EU: -â‚¬1.1B v +â‚¬1.9B prior - (NO) Norway Sept Trade Balance (NOK): 23.4B v 20.7B prior - (RU) Russia Sept Producer Prices M/M: -1.3% v +1.5%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 10.2%e - (PH) Philippines Aug Overseas Remittances: $1.5B v $1.6B prior - (EU) Euro Zone Aug Trade Balance: -â‚¬4.3B v â‚¬0.0Be (flat); Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: -â‚¬1.2B v -â‚¬0.8Be - (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e - (IT) Italy Sept Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e - (IT) Italy Sept Final CPI (EU Harmonized) M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
Fixed Income: - (IN) India sold total INR110B vs. INR110B targeted in 2015, 2020 and 2027
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - GOOG earnings beat expectations. - Markets eye pivotal speech by Fed's Bernanke later today ( () - Key US data on the docket with Retail Sales and CPI. - China PBoC Zhou: CNY currency adjustments will be within existing bands - China Commerce Ministry: Reiterates that a 3% CNY appreciation would put great pressure on Chinese exports. - Portugal 2011 Budget expected
Equities: - As of 05:40 FTSe100 -0.21% at 5,720, CAC40 +0.4% at 3,832; DAX +0.3% at 6,475; EuroStoxx50 was +0.3% at 2,844
- European shares opened higher but drifted lower and around 8:00 GMT FTSEurofirst 300 turned negative after opening in positive territory. Shares continued to trade flat ahead of Bernanke's speech during NY morning as traders turn cautious and take in profits. Investors will be looking for indications on further QE on the economy as the next FOMC meeting nears. Tech stocks were boosted by Google's earnings which surpassed analysts estimates. Miners pressured the market following the drop in commodity prices. - In individual names Ericsson [ERICB.SW] shares opened down 1.1% after joint-venture Sony-Ericsson reported worse than expected numbers. Q3 revenues were affected by components shortage. French retailer Carrefour [CA.FR] which published figures on Wednesday after EU close, reported revenues in line with estimates but slightly lowered its 2010 outlook due to a charge in Brazil. - Hennes & Mauritz was up slightly in early trade after reporting an increase in same-store sales at 8% which was above estimates of 5.6%. - In M&A news, shares of HSBC [HSBA.UK] were higher during the session as Old Mutual [OML.UK] confirmed the bank had terminated negotiations regarding purchase of Nedbank [NED.SA]
Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo commented that there was no international currency war and added that currency instability in itself was bad for both economic growth and financial markets. Emerging markets, including China, should include more currency flexibility. On budgets he stated that the Spanish govt would gain credibility if its forecast were more conservative ECB's Stark spoke once again (had Asian comments) and reiterated view that Greece austerity measures were on track but needed to remain robust . He reiterated many of the ECB standard views including that its monetary policy was both accommodative and appropriate. ECB will gradually and cautiously withdraw special measures. He reiterated that there were no medium-term risk of either inflation and deflation - ECB's Noyer commented that the low interest rate environment cannot be sustained indefinitely - BOJ Governor Shirakawa stated that the pace of Japan's economic recovery was slowing and must pay attention to downside risks - Japan BoJ Oct Regional Economic Report maintained core assessment but three regions outlooks were lowered - BOJ member Hayakawa pointed out that some Japanese companies were concerned about the soft tone in the Korean Won currency rather than the USD 's recent trend - US Gov't advisor Summers commented in a speech in India that protectionism was a rising threat to world economy and in the end helped no one - (MA) Malaysia announced its 2011 Budget Plan and forecasted its budget deficit to GDP ratio at 5.4% compared to 5.6% in 2010. It saw 2011 federal govt revenue at MYR165.8B versus the MYR162.1B seen this year. On the economic projections it forecasted 2011 GDP growth between +5-6% versus the 7% in 2010. - Portugal PM Socrates commented ahead of the 2011 budget relase for later today: Portugal needs a budget with clear determination to balance public finances and restore market credibility - German govt spokesperson stated that currencies to be discussed at an upcoming German-France-Russia meeting. - Russia Energy Min: To continue to supply gas to Poland after the end of current supply contact on Oct 20th
Currencies: - Position squaring was the sentiment ahead of a key policy speech from Fed Gov Bernanke later today for which clues would be digested for more certain signals on the timing and scope of QE2. In European peripherals price action the Greek/German 10-year government bond yield spread widened by some 30bps to 690bps. The EUR/USD remained subdued but did test back above the 1.41 handle. USD/JPY holding above the 81 handle.
Geopolitical/ In the papers: - According to Spanish press some ten Spanish toll roads were near bankruptcy. The article noted that ten toll roads that are mainly owned by the country's largest construction and infrastructure groups are in such a delicate financial situation that they could seek protection from creditors within the next six months - In the 'Heard on the Street' section of the Wall Street Journal, OPEC was concerned about 'QE2'. In the article, it noted as OPEC decided to leave its production unchanged, there were concerns from members of the cartel, including Venezuela and Iran, that oil should be closer to $100/bbl in order to offset the weaker dollar.
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Sept Real Industrial Production M/M: 0.6%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.7%e v 7.0% prior - (PE) Peru Aug GDP Y/Y: % v 8.5%e v 9.1% prior - (PE) Peru Sept Unemployment Rate: % v 7.4% prior - (IS) Israel Q2 Final GDP Annualized: % v 4.6% prelim - 7:00 (IS) Israel Sept Consumer Prices M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior - 7:30 (CL) Chile Sept Copper Exports: no est v $2.8B prior - 8:00 (IS) Israel Sept Consumer Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.8% prior - 8:15 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Speaks at Boston Fed Conference - 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.5%e v -0.9% prior; New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: -5.0%e v 2.4% prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI NSA: No est v 218.312 - 8:30 (US) Sept Advance Retail Sales: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Oct Empire Manufacturing: 7.0e v4.1 prior - 9:15 (US) Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Atlanta - 9:45 (BE) Belgium July Trade Balance: No est v â‚¬316.8M prior - 9:55 (US) Oct Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 69.2e v 68.2 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Rate at 4.50% level - 10:00 (US) Aug Business Inventories: 0.5%e v 1.0% -prior - 12:30 (US) Former Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks on Economy - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.1% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.1% prior
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