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Monday October 18, 2010 - 09:43:31 GMT
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European Market Update: Markets maintain corrective tone from recent trends (TTN)

European Market Update: Markets maintain corrective tone from recent trends

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: -5.2% v -3.2% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Sept PPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.0%
- (TU) Turkey Sept Consumer Confidence: 90.4 v 87.4 prior
- (SP) Spain Aug Bad Loan Ratio M/M: 5.62% v 5.47% prior

- All 12 French refineries continue to remain shut as a result of the strikes over pension reform. Calls for wider action later this week
- BHP and Rio Tinto abandons jv venture
- US TIC flow data to showcase China's Treasury holding trend
- US Treasury to postpone the release of its currency report until after the Nov 11th G20 summit

- As of 05:12 Eurostoxx -0.33% at 2832, FTSE100 -0.11% at 5697, CAC40 -0.37% at 3813, DAX -0.06% at 6488

- European shares slipped during the session with investors turning cautious awaiting more corporate numbers as European earnings season has barely started. Markets paused ahead of Citi's earnings during NY morning. Shares also fell as BHP and Rio Tinto officially ended plans for jv. Miners pressured the markets on weaker metal prices. Philips [PHIA.NV] fell about 4% after its Q3 earnings. Despite beating analysts' estimates on net and revenues, the company gave a cautious outlook on its Q4 revenues development citing fragile consumer confidence and uncertain economic climate. In the conference call, CFO noted that many uncertainties remained over US healthcare reform and reiterated the fragility of consumer confidence in
Western Europe and US. Company reiterated its target for a 10% EBITDA margin.
- Swiss transportation provider Kuehne and Nagel [KNIN.SZ] traded slightly lower after its 9-month earnings report. Both net and revenue had risen year over year and company lifted the guidance for airfreight volumes at +24% from 23%. Company expected a 5% negative forex impact on 2010 sales due to strong Swiss franc.
- German name Demag Cranes [D9C.GE] fell approximately 9% following a press report where analysts did not deem the company as a takeover target due to its high share price.
- In
UK, financial name Bluebay Asset Management [BBAY.UK] soared to 30% after announcing that it would be acquired by Royal Bank of Canada. Bluebay's shareholders would receive 485p/shr representing a premium of 29% to Friday's closing, thus valuing the company at £963M. World's second largest brewer by volume, SAB Miller [SAB.UK] provided a trading update noting the trading was in line with expectations. However, there were some concerns over the marginal decline of Latin American volumes. Stock opened down by 0.8%.

- ECB member Nowotny commented in a press interview that the central bank did not have any FX target nor plans to intervene. Euro currency was carrying the main burden of the fall in the USD/CNY pair but saw no immediate impact on
Greece from rise in Euro currency. He did add that the euro currency trend made it harder for Ireland. He sided with ECB chief Trichet that the temporary Gov't bond purchases should continue but the program should not be permanent
- China Central Bank advisor Xia Bin commented that the USD faced a long-term downward pressure. The PBoC to maintain managed float for the yuan currency but added the trading band should be widened
- Euro-Area Finance Ministers begin their
Luxembourg meeting and this brought out a plethora of speakers. The core message being that the EU needed more stringent framework for EU budget rules.
- Former BoE member Blanchflower commented that the
UK economy was in danger of a renewed recession

- The Corrective price action that enveloped the USD post Bernanke on Friday remained in effect on Monday. The USD 'book squaring' sentiment was aided by weekend comments from ECB's Trichet who refuting colleague's Weber call to end gov't bond purchases. Verbal intervention was also a factor. EU's Monetary & Affairs Commissioner Rehn stated that the EU finance ministers would discuss currencies today at EcoFin in Luxemburg. The EUR/USD tested 1.3830 before stabilizing. China PBoC advisor commented that the long-term USD trend remained downwards. The continued rise in the 3-month Euriobor rate also provided some support.
- On technical note dealers noted that the USD ability to recover late last Friday left the potential weekly "evening star" formation on the charts. Dealers were eyeing the potential that a close below 1.3730 area opens the door for a retest of 1.35.
- The European peripheral action did not reflect the USD strength and even tightened a bit against the German 10-year Bund. The 3-month Euribor rate continued its uptrend and hit the 1.00% level for the first time since July of 2009

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
- BBC reported additional insight into the recent terror threats across
Europe. French Interior Minister Hortefeux said that a message received from Saudi intelligence service a few days ago warned of an imminent terrorist attack. Though few details were given by the minister, threats to France, as well as Europe, come from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
- The Wall Street Journal commented on the divide between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. In the article, both the ECB and Fed are confronted with high levels of unemployment and slow growth, however, the ECB seems to be less positive on the impact that additional central bank measures can have on growth.
- According to British press, Ernst & Young's Item Club noted that the
UK recovery is expected to be slow, although a double dip is not expected. The firm sees 2010 GDP growth at 1.4%, 2011 at 2.2%. It also does not expect the Bank of England to make changes to interest rates.
- One of
France's largest unions, General Confederation Labour (CGT), stated that all twelve French refineries continue to remain shut as a result of continued strikes over pension reform. Further union related action called for all union workers to block airports nationwide on the 20th of October.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PD) Poland Sept Budget Level (PLN): No est v -2.0B prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v 4.0B prior
- (PH) Philippines Sept Balance of Payments (BOP): $ v $40M prior
- (IT) Italy Current Account: No est v €535M prior
- 6:00 (PD) Poland sells PLN600M in 52-Week Bills
- 6:00 (NE) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell up to €7.5B in 3-month, 6-month
- 6:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept Avg Gross Wages M/M: 0.3%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.2% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug Int'l Securities Transactions: C$6.0Be v C$5.5B prior
- 9:00 (US) Aug Total Net TIC Flows: no est v $63.7B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $61.2B prior
- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) to sell €8.5B in 13-week, 26-week and 52-Week Bills
- 9:15 (US) Sept Industrial Production: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Capacity Utilization: 74.8%e v 74.7% prior
- 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in main 7-day Refi Tender
- 10:00 (US) Oct NAHB Housing Market Index: 14e v 13 prior
- 10:00 (PO) ECB's Costa Speaks at Bank of Portugal Presentation
- 11:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers Resume Meeting
- 12:55 (US) Fed's Lockhart Gives Speech on Economy
- 13:00 (GE) RWE Think Tank and German Econ Min Bruederle at Energy Roundtable
- (AR) Argentina Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 48.83 prior


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