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Monday October 18, 2010 - 13:03:25 GMT
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Gold under Pressure as U.S. Dollar Mounts Strong Rally

The stronger U.S. Dollar is putting pressure on December Gold overnight. Long traders began taking profits in gold on Friday following a turnaround in the Greenback, triggered by conservative comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke regarding quantitative easing.


The overnight sell-off has helped form a two-day top in Dec. Gold at $1388.10. The new main range is $1237.90 to $1388.10. This makes $1313.00 to $1295.30 a potential downside target. The swing chart indicates that a break through $1325.80 will turn the main trend down.


December Silver is developing a similar patter, but not as bearish as gold. The short-term range in Silver is 22.35 to 24.95 with a retracement zone at 23.65 to 23.34. The bigger picture suggests a possible break to 21.37 to 20.52 based on a range of 17.79 to 24.95. In addition to the retracement zone targets, a steep uptrending Gann angle at 23.87 is still providing strong support.


Last night, silver broke the Gann angle but stopped short of testing the minor 50% level at 23.65. The actual low was 23.71. After testing this retracement level, the market regained the uptrending angle, reducing some of the developing bearishness.


Look for weakness to develop under 23.87 and a possible acceleration to the downside under 23.65.


The U.S. Dollar confirmed Friday’s closing price reversal bottom with a follow-through rally overnight. The Greenback hit a 10-month low against a basket of currencies on Friday, but rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed uncertainty as to how much monetary easing the Fed would allocate to its quantitative easing program.


Following an almost 5 percent decline in October after investors increased bets the Fed would apply at least $1 trillion of new quantitative easing, traders pared bets on speculation the amount may not be nearly that amount. The overnight trading action suggests that the market may have priced in too much QE into the market.


Adding uncertainty over the Fed’s next move along with short-term oversold conditions, investors face the challenge to either take profits on short positions or put up with a possible choppy trade until the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 2 and 3.


Some traders are also questioning whether Bernanke has the votes to implement a strong enough QE program although it’s been reported that at least 2 Fed members are leaning toward supporting an aggressive QE program.


Bernanke said on Friday that he fears deflation more than inflation. He also suggested that the Fed must do something to stay on course to reach its mandate of 2% inflation. This can only be accomplished through aggressively flooding the market with money.


So while there is a lull in the Dollar’s downtrend and a possible short squeeze taking place, many traders expect this current move in the Dollar to be short-lived. Once the Fed restarts the money printing machine, the Greenback should resume its uptrend. This may mean a 2 week consolidation or short-covering rally until the Fed meeting.


The December Euro closed below 1.40 for the week, taking the air out of some analyst forecasts for a move to 1.45. The outside move closing price reversal top could also be indicative of the start of a substantial correction. Last night’s follow-through break confirmed the reversal top.


This week’s rally through the last swing top at 1.4028 to Friday’s high at 1.4159 appeared labored. At times it seemed traders were tentative about going long at such a lofty level. In addition, much of the move seemed driven by a comment from the ECB’s Axel Weber calling for an end to the central bank’s asset buyback program rather than sound economic reasons.


Although the weakness started early in the U.S. session, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t help matters much when he failed to clarify the Fed’s quantitative easing plan.


Bernanke gave a speech on Friday which failed to give traders the clarity they needed to continue to pressure the Dollar. Some feel that Bernanke may be lacking the consensus he needs to implement the QE program that he feels is necessary to revive the economy.


Technically a break through the last swing bottom at 1.3775 will turn the main trend down on the daily chart. The main trend indicator turned long on September 1. Besides turning the main trend to down, a break through this level may be setting up for a 50% correction of the 1.2587 to 1.4159 range to 1.3373.


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13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

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