European Market Update: Better European peripheral Bill auctions and ZEW data aids risk appetite (TTN)
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
European Market Update: Better European peripheral Bill auctions and ZEW data aids risk appetite
***Economic Data*** - (PH) Philippines Sept Balance of Payments (BOP): $3.1B v $40M prior - (HU) Hungary Aug Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e - (SP) Spain Aug Industrial Orders Y/Y: 5.4% v 2.0% prior; Service Sector Sales Y/Y: 1.9% v -3.8% prior; Services Employment Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.1% prior - (NE) Netherlands Aug Consumer Spending Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.2% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Current Account: -â‚¬7.5B v -â‚¬4.1B prior; Current Account Net Seasonally Adj: â‚¬10.5 v +â‚¬3.4B prior - (HK) Hong Kong Sept Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.1%e - (GE) Germany Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment: -7.2 v -7.0e; Current Situation: 72.6 v 64.0e - (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Construction Output: M/M: -0.4% v -3.2% prior; Y/Y: -8.5% v -6.9% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment: +1.8 v-2.0e v 4.4 prior
Fixed Income: - (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total â‚¬6.4B in 12-month and 18-month Bills vs â‚¬7.0B indicated - Sold â‚¬4.18B in 12-month Bills; avg yield 1.842% v 1.908% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.1 x v 1.7x prior - Sold â‚¬2.2B in 18-month Bills; avg yield 2.009% v 2.146% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 2.9x prior - (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold â‚¬1.17B in 13-Week Bills v â‚¬900M Indicated; Avg Yield 3.75% v 3.975% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.2x v 6.26x prior - (SA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B in R208 and R203 Bonds - Sold ZAR1.1B in R208 Bonds (2021); avg yield 7.96%; bid to cover 1.57X - Sold ZAR1.0B in R203 Bonds (2017); avg yield 7.57%, bid to cover 1.95X - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF40B vs. HUF40B Targeted in 3-Month Bills; avg yield 5.26% v 5.24% prior - (UK) DMO sold Â£1.25B in 1.25% Indexed-Linked 2032 Gilts; avg yield 0.71%; Bid-to-cover: 1.59x
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - German ZEW data aids risk appetite - European peripheral auctions go off without a hitch - US Tsy Geithner talks down USD-devaluation - World Bank: Experience shows that capital controls are not very effective in limiting level of inflows - Brazil raises IOF tax from 4.0% to 6.0% (2nd rise this month) and then calls for an end to worldwide currency war - South Korea: Currency policy is based on fundamentals as well as supply and demand; Not managing currency for exports - AAPL & IBM profit growth & forecasts fall short of estimates - Barrage of Central bank speak set for later today
Equities: - FTS100 +0.10% at 5477, CAC40 +0.15% at 3840, DAX +0.25% at 6532, Eurostoxx50 +0.26% at 2858
- European stocks were up during the session lifted by banks. Markets are anticipating results from US banks Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Bank of NY due to report during the NY morning. Weaker commodities prices continue to drag miners lower while tech stocks also pressured the markets after Apple's iPads sales were lower than expected and the company guided lower. However, banks' strength has offset the tech's weakness and all European bourses have remained in positive territory. - In individual names, Swedish SKFAB [SKFB.SW] reported better than expected results and gave a positive outlook, forecasting margin and revenue growth. It also announced it acquired US based lubrication systems company Lincoln Industrial. Shares opened up by 10%. - Yara [YAR.NO] beat analysts' estimates noting that fertilizer margins had improved, volumes and deliveries had increased and its plants outside of China were running at a full capacity. The longer term nitrogen fertilizer balance remained healthy and expected a strong increase in wheat profitability due to price increase for wheat. Q4 energy costs are expected to be approximately NOK 500M higher than last year, and first-quarter 2011 energy costs are expected to be NOK 550M higher than a year earlier. Shares were up by 2.5% - Among notable UK names, Xstrata [XTA.UK] reported mixed production results for its Q3. Copper production was up by 10% on a yearly basis but coal and ferrochrome production were down 5% and 7% respectively. Shares went slightly down in the FTSE100. Autonomy [AU.UK] reported improving results on a yearly basis but noted unexpected volatility in customers' purchasing behavior. Also reported that some deals did not close in time but emphasized that there was no softening of the demand. Maintained view to deliver good EPS growth in 2011 with upside to current market consensus.
Speakers: - China Foreign Ministry confirmed that China had taken measures to limit the rare earth industry but did comment neither on specific rare earth mineral quotas nor of exports limits to Japan. - German BGA Trade Association raised their 2010 nominal export +16% from over 10% prior view. This would mark the stronger growth exhibited in a decade for Germany. It noted that currency issues to begin to considerably burden German Exports in USD related areas. It added that uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the Chinese real estate market were risks to the scenario. - Basel Committee reaches agreement on liquidity requirements on banks. The new standards would be subject to observation period and review clause - Russia Fin Min Kudrin commented that Russia to meet its 2010 domestic borrowing plans - Philippines Central Bank commented that it would prudently use enhanced measures to manage inflows and currency volatilities - Greece's budget deficit for 2009 expected to be revised significantly higher to 15.5% of GDP from 12.7% - Greek Press - France senator Gaudin stated that Parliamentary debate over pension reform might last the entire week and noted that a pension vote was expected on Oct 21st - Japan Econ Min Kaieda echoed the Cabinet report and noted that a strong yen and weak shares are downside risks to Japan economy - Philippines Central Bank Dep commented that the country was not contemplating any type of capital controls - Fitch: Performance by major UK banks improved though regulation to weigh on earnings
Currencies: The EUR/USD maintained its current consolidation range with both 1.3850 and 1.4000 levels tested over the last 24 hours. Dealers noted that a potential break of either level could increase the volatility and subject the pair towards a 200pip move. The German ZEW survey came in as expected but 'better' than the whisper number to aid the EUR/USD and this was complemented by decent Spanish and Greek Bill auctions.
Geopolitical/ In the papers: - The Wall Street Journal commented on the ECB foregoing purchases of government bonds for the first time in more than five months. The development occurs amid disagreements among members of the ECB regarding the merits of such bond purchases. The article also mentions the recent comments made by ECB's Weber in which he said that bond purchases should be phased out permanently. - Rolling strikes continue to affect various French industry sectors with the government maintaining its position that the proposed retirement age will not be changed. In particular, concerns over fuel shortages persist with blockades and refinery strikes entering into its eighth day. Continued strike actions at all twelve refineries were confirmed by one of France's largest labor union, CGT. Also various reports state that about 2,400 petrol stations, approximately a fifth, are dry. In response, the government has stated that fuels reserves remain at adequate levels, with shortages not yet at critical levels. Though French president Sarkozy's political party has majority positions in both houses of parliament, vote on pension, originally scheduled for Wednesday, may be extended further to Thursday or even next week in a possible attempt to mitigate the social unrest. - According to the Greek press, the 2009 Greek budget deficit is expected to be revised significantly higher to 15.5% of GDP from the prior 12.7% estimate. The revision follows a review by Eurostat. The deficit for 2010 may be also revised to 8.2%. Please note Eurostat was forced to disclose details related to a report about Greece's statistics issued in Oct of 2009. In the report, Greece claimed in early October that it saw its deficit at â‚¬14.4B (5.99% of GDP). However, by the 21st of that month, Greece had revised the data to a deficit of 12.5% of GDP.
***Looking Ahead *** - (PD) Poland Sept Budget Level (PLN): v -2.0B prior; Budget Level YTD: v 4.0B prior - 7:00 (EU) EU to Outline Options for Reforming Bloc's Budget - 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales - 7:00 (EU) ECB to drain â‚¬63.5B in 7-day term Deposit Tender - 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept Sold Industrial Output M/M: 12.4%e v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: 11.2%e v 13.5% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept Producer Prices M/M: -0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Housing Starts: 580Ke v 598K prior; Building Permits: 575Ke v 571K (revised from 569M) - 8:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet Speaking in Frankfurt - 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales - 9:00 (EU) EU's Barroso Takes Part in Parliament Question Time - 9:00 (EU) ECB's Provopoulos, Kranjec, Belgium's Praet, Chile's Marfan - 9:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v -4 prior - 9:00 (BR) Brazil Sept CAGED Formal Job Creation: 300.0Ke v 299.4K prior - 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to maintain rates at the current 1.00% level - 9:40 (US) Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy - 10:00 (US) Fed's Dudley to Speak at Regional Economic Briefing - 11:00 (EU) ECB's Costa Speaking in Frankfurt - 11:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Economy - 12:50 (US) Fed's Fisher Speaks in New York - 13:20 (US) Kocherlakota Speaks in Fargo, North Dakota - 15:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Tax Collections (BRL) 62.6Be v 62.7B prior - 16:30 (US) EIA Energy Inventories - 16:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Gives Brief Remarks in Fairfax, Virginia - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 17th: No est v -45 prior - 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.5%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.3%e v 13.8% prior - 18:00 (PD) Polish Central Banker Belka, - 18:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Banker Kiraly Speaks
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 26 Feb 2018 A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.