User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 14, 2005 - 12:59:59 GMT
GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 April 2005)



The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2815 level and appeared set to challenge bids around the $1.2800 figure. Many traders are confounded by the dollar’s strength now as this week’s U.S. trade deficit and retail sales data were not dollar-positive from economic and structural standpoints. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes did little to change the perception the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy at a “measured” pace. Traders are preparing for tomorrow’s February Treasury International Capital data to determine if international portfolio flows covered the U.S. trade deficit two months ago. Most forecasts are expecting to see some US$ 65 billion in foreign capital inflows, down from January’s unusually-high US$ 91.5 billion in inflows, but likely enough to cover the February trade deficit. There are strong rumours in the market that part of the euro’s misfortunes now are linked to famed U.S. investor Warren Buffett’s trades wherein he is said to be closing long euro positions and netting hundreds of millions of dollars in profit. A report issued by the International Monetary Fund last night is also contributing to the dollar’s strength as the IMF is forecasting the U.S. will outperform the eurozone’s and Japan’s economies this year. U.S. interest rates are higher than those in the eurozone and Japan thus the dollar continues to be supported by positive interest rate differentials and cyclical growth differentials. Fed Governor Bernanke is due to speak about the U.S. current account deficit data today and his remarks will closely be monitored. Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall 10,000 to 330,000 while February business inventories were up +0.5%, as expected. In eurozone news, German finance minister Eichel reported high oil prices are a risk for the German and global economies while Bank of France reported Q2 French GDP should grow around 0.5%. In other French news, a new poll is reporting that 55% of French respondents do not favour adoption of an EU constitution. A vote will be taken on 29 May and traders may see the failure to reach a pan-European consensus as a failure to complement Economic and Monetary Union with a political dimension. Other data released today saw EMU-12 Q4 FDP up 0.2% q/q and forecasts for Q1 and Q2 economic growth were left unchanged. Also, Italian March CPI was reported up 0.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y. The European Central Bank released its April monthly bulletin today and predicts “moderate economic growth” will continue but adds “persistently high oil prices in particular pose downside risks to growth.” ECB chief economist Issing last night said the ECB’s current monetary policy is “very accommodating.” Euro bids are seen around the $1.2800 figure and $1.2710 level.

¥

The yen lost significant ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥108.15 level, a short-term technical support level related to the recent ¥108.85 – 107.50 range. Technically, the ¥108.30 level is the pair’s next hurdle and if paid, opens up the ¥109.30/ ¥109.85 levels in what would be a move to multi-month highs. Australasian dealers were only able to take the pair down to the ¥107.25 level before bids surfaced to move the pair firmly above the ¥107.50 level. Data released in Japan overnight saw March bankruptcies off 14.2% y/y while corporate failures were down 18.1% y/y. Capital flows data released overnight saw Japanese investors buy a net ¥1.03 trillion of foreign bonds and stocks in the week ending 9 April, the first full week of Japan’s fiscal year. Foreign investors purchased ¥680.7 billion of JGBs and ¥303.7 billion of Japanese equities last week. All eyes are on Washington, D.C. over the next couple of days as Japanese policymakers have promised an extensive G7 dialogue about oil prices. Most market participants do not expect the G7 to talk about foreign exchange in detail but it is probable the U.S. and Europe will renew their calls for ex-Japan Asia to promote flexible exchange rate regimes. Option traders cite run-offs at ¥108.00, ¥107.80, ¥107.50, and ¥107.00 at the New York cut today. The Nikkei 225 stock index came off 0.64% today to close at ¥11,563.17. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥107.30/ ¥106.90 levels while dollar offers are seen around the ¥108.30 level. The euro was little-changed vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥138.90 level and was supported around the ¥138.35 level. In Chinese news, it was reported that China’s foreign exchange reserves came in at US$ 659.1 billion at the end of March, up around 49.9% y/y. The Chinese media reported China’s GDP expanded around 9% y/y n Q1, compared with a 9.7% growth during the same period last year. The same forecast concluded the “economy continued to develop in the direction guided by the government's macro-control and maintained a stable and fast growth.” Other data released today saw the final March M2 money supply up 14% y/y.




The British pound depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable receded to the US$ 1.8810 level after failing to get above the $1.8950 level during North American dealing. Today’s high represented the 50% retracement level of the move from $1.9235 to $1.8590 and chartists cite the $1.8785 level as the next target to the downside. BCC released a report today that predicts U.K. GDP will come in around 2.5% in 2005, lower than the 2004 growth rate of 3.1% and below Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown’s forecast of 3.0% to 3.5%. The BCC spotlighted the manufacturing and services sectors as potential problem areas for the economy. On the political front, a new poll suggest Prime Minister Blair’s narrow lead over the opposition Conservatives is widening ahead of next month’s general U.K. election. Option traders cite $1.8890 and $1.8950 run-offs at 1400 GMT today. Cable bids offers are seen around the $1.8885 level while cable bids are seen around the $1.8760 level. The euro moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6805 level and was capped around the ₤0.6825 level. Euro bids are seen around the ₤0.6780/ 60 levels while euro offers are cited around the ₤0.6840 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc weakened substantially vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2135 level and remained supported around the CHF 1.1990 level. There was talk overnight of dollar buying by large Swiss name above the CHF 1.2000 figure and the pair is close to testing levels not traded since 10 February. Technically, a move above the CHF 1.2150 level opens up the CHF 1.2120 level and the CHF 1.2350 level. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.1980 level. The euro moved sharply higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5550 level and was supported around the CHF 1.5490 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as sterling tested offers around the CHF 2.2835 level.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105