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Tuesday October 19, 2010 - 15:48:06 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

US Market Update

Dow -115 S&P -11 NASDAQ -28
***Economic Data***
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Oct 16th: -0.7% w/w; +1.7% y/y
- (PD) Poland Sept Sold Industrial Output M/M: 13.2% v 13.3%e; Y/Y: 11.8% v 11.4%e
- (PD) Poland Sept Producer Prices M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.2%e
- (US) Sept Housing Starts: 610K v 580Ke; Building Permits: 539K v 575Ke
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 16th: +2.6% y/y; MTD: +0.2% v Sept
- (BE) Belgium Oct Consumer Confidence: -2 v -4 prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept CAGED Formal Job Creation: 246.9K v 300.0Ke
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) left its key Overnight Rate unchanged at 1.00%; As expected

- This morning's surprise PBoC rate hike and a brace of disappointing earnings reports are weighing heavily on equity indices and commodities while forcing the Greenback higher.
China raised interest rates for the first time for nearly three years as it continues its exit from support for the economy. In earnings, investors were disappointed with aspects of earnings from Apple, IBM and Bank of America, among others, even as headline numbers met or exceeded expectations. The September housing starts data showed a surprising gain, with strength seen in single home starts, for the strongest report in the series since April. However Sept building permits missed expectations and fell on a m/m basis, with many analysts troubled by the widening spread between the two key forward-looking housing market indicators. The Fed's Evans reiterated his belief there is evidence the US has entered a liquidity trap while both he and New York Fed Governor Dudley reiterated tacit support for further Fed asset purchases. Precious metals have fallen sharply in the wake of the China decision, with December gold trading at $1,340. Oil is right at the bottom of the range seen over the last two weeks, just above $81. US Treasury prices have pared some early losses keeping the benchmark 10-year yield right around 2.5%.

- Apple delivered another quarter of impressive earnings outperformance in its Q4 report. The firm's top and bottom lines predictably exceeded analysts' expectations, and understated EPS guidance for next quarter predictably came in below par. Note that although iPhone shipments may have grown a whopping 91% on a y/y basis, analysts are disappointed that iPad shipments were lower than the Street had expected. After the data, iSuppli forecasted that Apple would ship 43.7M iPads in FY11. IBM came in modestly ahead of Q3 estimates and raised its 2011 outlook. There were a few troubling lines in its report, however, with signed service contracts down on a y/y and q/q basis and outsourcing revenues down sharply over year-ago levels. The company blamed some late signings, but investors were spooked nonetheless. AAPL is down 2%, while
IBM is down more than 3%.

- Third-quarter numbers from Goldman Sachs were solid, although the picture was more mixed with Bank of America. Both Goldman's earnings and revenue beat the Street, although the firm's trading revenue fell on a q/q and y/y basis for a second quarter in a row. BoA posted a $10.4B write-down tied to new financial regulations in Q3, leading to another quarter of losses. On an operating basis, the bank earned $0.27/shr, well ahead of expectations, while revenue was in line. According to CEO Moynihan, BoA made money every trading day in trading operations and saw further stabilization in its loan book and in loan quality across the board. After falling as much as 2% in early trading,
BAC is back in the black, while shares of GS are up more than 2.5%, leading the banks higher in mid morning trade. In other financial sector earnings, both Bank of New York and Zions Bancorp met expectations, in part on much lower loss provisions.

- Dow components Coca Cola and Johnson & Johnson both disclosed relatively staid Q3 results, with quarterly performance in line with analysts' estimates. Defense major Lockheed Martin missed revenue targets and cut its 2010 outlook due to the sale of certain units. KO is flat, while shares of
JNJ are down 1.5%. United Health, the first major managed care name to report, did very well, crushing EPS targets, beating on revenue and raising its 2010 outlook. Nevertheless, UNH is down 2.5%.

- Central bank actions are weighing heavily on global markets during the
New York session. The rate move by China's central bank pulled the carpet out from under the appetite for risk. The rate hike comes ahead of China's September GDP and inflation reports (due on Wednesday), although the move was initially viewed as a gesture ahead of this weekend's G20 finance ministers' meeting. Commodity-related and emerging markets were initially the most affected by the rate move. The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged (as expected) but lowered its 2010 and 2011 growth forecasts. The BoC now expects the economic recovery to be more gradual than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report. In the US, Fed members were vocal in renewed calls for possible QE2, helping to smooth the bullish tone of the greenback.

- With investors fleeing risk, the dollar strengthened against major pairs. EUR/USD tested below the 1.38 handle while GBP/USD tested below 1.57 (aided by a weak CBI industrial data). The environment seemed ripe for possible BoJ currency intervention as the USD/JPY nudged up to approach the 82 level, but no signs of action were even remotely seen.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Costa Speaking in Frankfurt
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Economy
- 12:50 (US) Fed's Fisher Speaks in New York
- 13:20 (US) Kocherlakota Speaks in Fargo, North Dakota
- 15:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Tax Collections (BRL) 62.6Be v 62.7B prior
- 16:30 (US) EIA Energy Inventories
- 16:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Gives Brief Remarks in Fairfax, Virginia
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 17th: No est v -45 prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.5%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.3%e v 13.8% prior
- 18:00 (PD) Polish Central Banker Belka,
- 18:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Banker Kiraly Speaks

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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