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Wednesday October 20, 2010 - 03:39:18 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 20-Oct-2010 -0336 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities fell last night following worries over the expected growth of Apple, IBM and BoA. The Dow (10978.62) was down 1.48% and the S&P 500 (1165.90) was down 1.59%. The Dow has seen a very steep fall last evening and may dip further if it is unabe to move above 11000-50 in the coming days.

The Asians are all in Red after the surprise rate hike by China yesterday. The Nikkei (9331.86, down 2.18%) is trading lower following concerns over the Chinese Economy and may test its August lows of 9000 in the coming weeks. The Shanghai (2983.15, down 0.62%) is unable to break above the Resistane at 3000 and may see some correction while below 3000 in the coming weeks. In India, the Sensex (19983.13) and the Nifty (6027.30) closed down about0.8-0.9% in late sell-off yesterday. The Sensex may see some sideways movement between 19500-20500 in the coming days followed by an upmove beyond 20500 in the coming weeks.

COMMODITIES
Crude (79.81) fell sharply yesterday and is now trading below 80. China, which surprised the market with a 25bps interest rate hike (first time since 2007) triggered the fall as the dollar strengthened. However, the Support at 79.50 which we had been mentioning for sometime is holding as of now. A bounce back above 80 might see an upmove once again towards 82-83. On the other hand a strong break below 79.50 might trigger further downmove towards 77-75 in the coming days. The US Crude inventory data is due today.

Gold (1335.60) price tanked yesterday as the dollar strengthened following the surprise interest rate hike by China. Important Support is seen in 1325-20 region which might be tested if it continues to trade below 1350 and this Support region is expected to hold. However, a break below 1320 might increase the chances of further dip towards 1300-1280 in the coming days. We will have to wait and watch.


CURRENCIES
Strong recovery in the Dollar in the US session yesterday as a heavily oversold market decided to take greater heed of Geithner's comment on Monday that the US would not devalue the Dollar. The US Housing Starts came in slightly better than expected at 610K. The historical chart suggests that the US Housing market could be stabilising. Please take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ushsgstarts.shtml

There is some minor consolidative recovery in the non-US currencies today, but the overall stance would be for the Dollar to recoup some more of its earlier losses over this week and the next. The currencies are trading near the following levels:
EURUSD 1.3766, USDJPY 81.41, EURJPY 112.06, USDCHF 0.9671, GBPUSD 1.5713 and AUDUSD 0.9742.

Emerging Market currencies have also weakened. Dollar-Won trades higher near 1129.70/1131.10 while the USDSGD trades higher near 1.3905. The latter has a resistance at 1.3169 for the day. The Braziian Real has weakened sharply to 1.69, compared to 1.6067 a week ago. The market seems to have reacted to both the increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investments as well as Geithner's comments on the Dollar.

Dollar-Rupee had closed at 44.35 yesterday and might rise towards 44.50 and higher towards 44.75 over the rest of this week.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.36% and the 10Y yields were down 2 bps to quote at 2.49%.

DATA TODAY
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 1-0-8...Previous 1-0-8


DATA YESTERDAY
US Sep Housing Starts
...Actual 0.61 Mln...Previous 0.60 Mln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ushsgstarts.shtml

BoC Meeting
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/caboc.shtml


 

 

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