Dow +115 S&P +10.7 NASDAQ +21 ***Economic Data*** - (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 15th: -10.5% v 14.6% prior - (PD) Poland Sept Core Inflation M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 1.2%e - (CA) Canada Aug Wholesale Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.5%e - (MX) Mexico Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.4% v 2.1%e - (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report: Reiterated view that further interest rate hikes would be carefully considered - (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude: +660K v +2.5Me; Gasoline: +1.15M v -1.5Me; Distillate: -2.15B v -1Me; Utilization: 82.5% v 81.9%e
- General risk appetite is back on this morning as investors around the world refocus on expectations for additional quantitative easing from the Fed. Analysts are calling China's surprise rate hike a one-off move to combat inflation and to placate US and European officials ahead of G20, US equities are trading higher on selected US corporate earnings. The Fed releases its beige book report later this afternoon and traders expect a slightly less downbeat outlook than last month's edition. However, no one expects any changes in the general policy prescription, which calls for QE2 sooner or later. Note that Fed Governor Duke warned against reading too much into the comments of individual members in a speech last night. Duke also said that lower rates on excess reserves may be a policy alternative to QE2. The Dollar is getting whacked once again giving back all of yesterday's gains highlighted by another 15 year low in USD/JPY. Commodities are recouping losses not surprisingly with the dollar weakness pushing Dec crude up nearly 2% at $82. Treasury prices are flat to higher erasing some early declines keeping the 10-year yield sub 2.5%.
- Selected bank stocks have been under pressure this morning thanks to ongoing mortgage and MBS issues, plus Morgan Stanley's less-than-stellar Q3 results. Morgan Stanley reported a net loss during the third quarter as revenue fell sharply and earnings were diluted by special one-time charges, although on an operating basis the firm beat expectations. Trading revenue was a shadow of last quarter's and last year's results. Super regionals Wells Fargo and US Bank topped expectations and reported that credit demand is heading in the right direction Like many competitors in the quarter, Wells Fargo's earnings were boosted by a big release of funds set aside to offset credit losses. Shares of MS fell as much as 4% before recovering some losses, while USB and WFC are in the black. Note that shares of BAC are around their lows, down 5% at one point, as fears about MBS buybacks gather strength.
- Yahoo is up around 3.5% after crushing earnings expectations and reporting its first year/year revenue increase in the last two years. Note that the strong EPS result was due to one-time gains from selling assets. On the conference call, Yahoo CEO Bartz refrained from commenting on the various acquisition rumors surrounding the company. Shares of Western Digital have been volatile, up as much as 3% and down as much as 3%, after the firm met expectations in its Q1 but guided well below par for Q2. Biopharma Gilead Sciences is near its highs, up 6% after the firm showed strong growth in sales of its flagship HIV treatment. Boston Scientific is up around 8% after destroying analyst estimates in its Q3 report and Q4 and FY10 guidance.
- Among industrial names, Dow component United Technology and competitor Textron are in the red on mixed third quarter results. Profits were slightly better than expected in the quarter, while revenue was below par. Both firms did increase full-year guidance slightly. With special charges, Textron reported a loss in the quarter. UTX and TXT are down 2% and 4%, respectively, in early trading. Boeing's profits were very strong in the quarter, beating expectations and a big turnaround from last year. The company cited a strong recovery in the commercial airplane market. Shares of BA are up more than 2%. Shares of US Airways and Delta are up more than 5% after strong results.
- With yesterday's dollar strength a memory the EUR/USD is probing 1.40 as the euro gains towards on renewed chatter that the Fed plans to "aggressively increase its bond purchases." In addition, German Chancellor Merkel commented that Germany's 2010 GDP growth could exceed the 3% level. Overall the markets are looking at China interest rate move in a more positive light today, seeing it as a sign of the sustainability of global growth given the anticipated strong domestic data expected out of China on Thursday. Sterling managed to rebound from its soft tone following the revelation of a three-way BoE split at its last MPC meeting. There were no surprises from PM Osborne's spending review speech.
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:45 (US) Fed's Plosser Speaks on "Incentives and Regulation" - 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book - 14:00 (GE) Princeton's Krugman holds lecture at Berlin's Free University - 16:00 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks about U.S. Economic Outlook - (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the SELIC Target unchanged at the 10.75% level - 22:00 (CH) China Q3 Real GDP Y/Y : 9.5%e v 10.3% prior - 22:00 (CH) China Sept Consumer Prices Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.5% prior - 22:00 (CH) China Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 18.5%e v 18.4% prior - 22:00 (CH) China Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 14.0%e v 13.9% prior
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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