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Friday October 22, 2010 - 03:54:36 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 22-Oct-2010 -0348 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities were up in a volatile session as the Q3 earning reports overshadowed the US economic worries yesterday. The Dow (11146.57) was up 0.35% and the S&P 500 (1180.26) was up 0.18%. The Dow may spend some time in the region of 11000-250 in the coming days, before a break on the either side.

The Asians are trading in Green today. The Nikkei (9410.71, up 0.37%) is higher following good earnings from shipping industry and exporters, and the Shanghai (2991.13, up 0.25%) is unable to break above the Resistane at 3000 and may see some correction while below 3000 in the coming weeks. In India, the Sensex (20260.58) and the Nifty (6101.50) closed about 2% higher following favourable response to the Coal India IPO coupled with strength in global equities yesterday. The Sensex may move up towards 21000-500 in the coming weeks.

COMMODITIES
Crude (81.02) is trading volatile over the last few days and fell sharply yesterday following the stronger dollar. However, the Support in 80.00-79.50 is still holding and it has bounced back from its low of 80.09. As mentioned earlier, while above 80 the broader outlook is bullish and a strong break above 85 might trigger fresh upmove towards 88-90.

Gold (1322.30) fell sharply yesterday from the high of 1347.60 following the better than expected US jobs report and is now trading near its important Support at 1320. A strong break below 1320 might increase the chances of further dip towards 1300-1280 in the coming days. However the broader picture continues to remain bullish.


CURRENCIES
Dollar has recovered overnight. The Euro (1.3921) has come off from yesterday's high of 1.4050 and might test its 1.3820-00 Support region if a break below 1.3900 is seen today. Resistance is seen at 1.4000. Dollar-Yen (81.19) continuing to trade sideways between 81.00-82.00 within its overall downtrend. A strong break below 81.00 might see 80.50-30 on the downside. The Euro-Yen (113.10) is oscillating between its Support at 112.70 and Resistance at 114.00. The immediate outlook is mixed and a breakout on either side of 112.70-114.00 would determine the further direction of move.

Dollar-Swiss tested the Resistance at 0.97 this morning and has come down. The pair has been moving in a range of 0.9600-700 since yesterday and has been unable to break above the Resistance at 0.97 or break below the Support at 0.96. Aussie may see some more fall after an initial rally towards 0.9850 today. Cable has not been able to break below the Support at 1.57 and may see some sideways movement before we se it move strongly on the either side.

In Asia the Korean-Won is trading near 1132 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3016. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower yesterday at 44.2950-3050. Immediate Support is seen at 44.20 and if it holds we might see a rise towards 44.40-50 today.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.35% and the 10Y yields were up 5 bps to quote at 2.53%.

DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q1 '10
...Previous EUR -24.4 bln

09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Previous EUR 10.9 bln

09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
...Previous -1.1%

08:00 GMT Sep GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 102.9...Previous 103.9
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

08:00 GMT Sep GER IFO Business Situations
..Expected 110.0...Previous 109.7
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

08:00 GMT Sep GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 106.5...Previous 106.8
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Expected 1.6%...Previous 1.6%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
Sep US Philifed Index
...Actual 1.0...Previous -0.7

 

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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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