Friday April 15, 2005 - 01:02:55 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 15th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2166 ... 1.2195 ... 1.2202 ... 1.2231
Support....: 1.2117 ... 1.2099 ... 1.2074 ... 1.2050
While 1.2099-1.2117 supports we look for further gains above 1.2202-20 and to the 1.2250-80 area
It would appear that the 1.1985 low provided the end of the sideways consolidation and does provide a bullish outlook. While the continued bullishness is valid we require the 1.2099-1.2117 area to continue supporting and for gains to move above 1.2166 and then yesterday's 1.2195 high which should then follow-through to the 1.2250-80 area. This should stall gains for a while. Further resistance is found at 1.2325.
With the break above 1.2115 and also 1.2145 we feel the larger uptrend has resumed and thus does not give much hope for a bearish move today. At the most we feel the downside will be restricted by the 1.2099-1.2117 area and only below here would cause a slightly deeper pullback to the 1.2050 area but expect that to hold. Thus a stronger move lower would need a breach of the 1.2040-50 area and would then cause a move back down to 1.1985.
Elliott Wave Comments:
14th April 2005
It is possible that the rally to 1.2074 completed Wave d of the triangle though we cannot totally rule out a second attempt higher to the 1.2074-98 area in a further internal ABC pattern higher. However, at some point we expect a move down to the 1.1930-50 area to complete Wave e which should then finish Wave -b- and allow Wave -c- to develop higher. Break above 1.2115 would confirm.
15th April 2005
Most frustratingly it appears that the 1.1985 low completed Wave e and thus Wave-b- and should now allow the major uptrend to resume. We can now generate potential targets for Wave -c- and thus Wave [iii]. Firstly we see targets for Wave [iii] at 1.2202 (138.2%), 1.2280 (161.8%) and 1.2612 (261.8%). For Wave -c- we can generate targets at 1.2326 (wave equality), 1.2456 (138.2%) and 1.2537 (161.8%). Thus matching these two is a little vague but we tend to feel the 1.2537 - 1.2612 area is most likely.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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