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Friday October 22, 2010 - 15:19:53 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

US Market Update

Dow -15 S&P +1.25 NASDAQ +12
***Economic Data***
- (CA) Canada Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (CA) Canada Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e ; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.5% v -0.1%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (BE) Belgium Oct Business Confidence: -2.8 v -3.8e
- (MX) Mexico Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -$560M v -$911Me
- (MX) Mexico Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.4%e

- US equities are not gaining much momentum this morning as the major stock indices muddle along in thin volume. The latest batch of corporate earnings have been neither very good nor very bad, and traders are eyeing rhetoric emerging from the G20 finance ministers' meeting in South Korea. Note that Treasury Secretary Geithner has outlined a proposal to rebalance global growth by having industrial and developing economies agree on limits for their external imbalances at the main G20 meeting later in November. The response from global finance ministers has been rather tepid. Gold continues its slide, with the yellow metal near the bottom of yesterday's range, at $1,323. Front-month crude is just above $81. Treasury prices are little changed as well. With the
US benchmark 10-year yield back above 2.5%, the 10-2 year spread is bit wider out towards 220 basis points, but the 30-10 spread has narrowed below 140 basis points.

- Verizon had a mixed Q3, and investors have been selling shares of the company since the open, with VZ down 2% at one point. Verizon's earnings were a touch higher than estimates and quarterly metrics for its FiOS service continue to improve incrementally. However, wireless net adds slipped below the 1 million level and churn levels rose, while total quarterly profit was much lower on a y/y basis. Honeywell was a bit ahead of expectations and it increased its FY10 forecast slightly. On the conference call executives were very positive about prospects for the firm's core aerospace services business. American Express's Q3 results beat expectations and rose a whopping 70% over last year's Q3. Executives said AmEx's credit has improved at a quicker pace than that of the rest of the industry. Shares of AXP are down 2%. Results from oil services giant Schlumberger were right in line with the Street. The firm said that better revenue from onshore plays in the
US and Canada are more than offsetting sharp declines from the Gulf of Mexico. SLB is up 5%.

- In tech, Amazon topped earnings targets, although there were definite signs of softness in the firm's margins, while many analysts are focusing on a big y/y climb in expenses. Investors are also questioning why the company does not break out Kindle sales numbers. Sandisk crushed consensus estimates in its quarterly numbers, although it also warned that margins would be tighter in Q4 as pricing has begun to soften.

- EUR/USD remains locked in the overnight established range, although dealers are noting some good interest from Middle Eastern names, helping pull the pair back from a spike down to 1.3700 earlier on. Dealers are drooling in anticipation for any sort of unplanned statement ahead of the G20 finance ministers' meeting to spur volatility. Anything could happen in today's thin liquidity conditions, although the range appears to be locked within a 1.3800-1.4000 corridor. Note that the Canadian retail sales data beat the consensus estimate and helped CAD gain marginally against the greenback.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 ECB's Costa Speaks at conference in Lisbon
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Trade Balance: $915Me v $1.1B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: 9.4%e v 10.1% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 8.8%e v 8.1% prior
- (SK) Weekend G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
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