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Monday October 25, 2010 - 03:44:27 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 25-Oct-2010 -0338 GMT


GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities were up in a volatile session last week. The markets were up following better than expected Q3 numbers from sectoral heavyweights which overshadowed the global financial concerns. The Dow (11132.56) was up 0.63% and the S&P 500 (1183.08) was up 0.59%. While above 11000, we see higher chances of a test of Resistance at 11250 on the Dow before a downmove. Though, a break below 11000 may bring it down towards 10700 in the coming weeks.

The Asians are mixed today. The Nikkei (9399.80, down 0.29%) is trading lower on stronger yen and the Shanghai (2981.30, flat) is trading sideways, just below the strong Resistance at 3000. In Australia the S&P/ASX (4717.20, up 1.48%) is up over the possibility of Singapore Exchanges takeover of the ASX. In India, the Sensex (20165.86, up 0.20%) and the Nifty (6066.05) closed marginally higher last week. The Sensex has some Resistance in the region of 20150-200, a strong break above this may take it towards 21000-500 in the coming weeks.

COMMODITIES
Crude (82.26) is continuing to trade volatile. It has been oscillating between 79.50-84.50 all through this month. While above 80 the outlook remains bullish and a strong break above 85 might trigger fresh upmove towards 88-90. Important to note is that a close below 80 has not been seen since Crude broke above 80 on 01-Oct-10 and also a close below 81 was seen only on two trading days since then.

Gold (1337.80) has bounced back from Friday's low of 1316.10. The Support at 1320 is holding and is keeping the overall bullish sentiment intact. Some Resistance is seen at 1350 and a strong break above it might see further upmove towards 1380 in the coming days.


CURRENCIES
Some fresh selling has come into the Dollar after the G-20 meeting. Although the countries pledged against competitive devaluations and might work towards setting targets for current account deficits/ surpluses, the market probably wanted a more immediate and direct action in stopping the slide of the Dollar.

At the moment, the Euro (1.4031), Yen (81.05), Pound (1.5740), Swissy (0.9730) and Aussie (0.9920) have all risen against the Dollar, with the Euro and the Aussie rising the most compared to Friday's closing levels of 1.3950 and 0.9845 respectively.

There is a lot of US data this week, especially on the Housing sector before the much awaited FOMC meeting next week. While the immediate sentiment might be to sell the Dollar, we see chances that the market may want to square up positions this week, not wanting to run event risk next week. As such, wide sideways range trading might prevail this week, especially for the Major currencies. For instance, the Euro might be ranged between 1.41 on the upside and 1.38 on the downside.

Among Emerging currencies, the Korean Won (1115.40) and the Sing Dollar (1.2945) have gained substantially this morning. The Brazilian Real has weakened substantially to 1.7055 on Friday, but might gain a decent bit against the Dollar today. Following the global trends, Dollar-Rupee may well fall towards 44.40 today, after having closed higher at 44.58/60 on Friday.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.35% and the 10Y yields were up 2 bps to quote at 2.55%.

The 5YR US T-Bond yields have fallen dramatically and are near trend Supports. If the Support holds, we may see the US yields move up in the coming weeks/months. In order to see the Trendline Support on the 5YR Yields, please follow the link below:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin92.shtml#sin92

DATA TODAY
AU PPI
...Actual 1.3%...Previous 0.3%

14:00 GMT Sep US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4.29 Mln...Previous 4.13 Mln


FRIDAY'S DATA
Sep GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 105.1...Previous 103.9
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

Sep GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 110.2...Previous 109.8
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

Sep GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 107.8...Previous 106.8
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.9%...Previous 1.7%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml

 

 

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium


GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 16 Apr 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 17 Apr 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 12:30 US- House Starts/Permits
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 18 Apr 2018
AA 01:30 AU- Employment
AA 14:00 CA- BOC Decision
AA 14:30 GB- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Apr 2018
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 14:00 US- Leading Indicators
Fri 20 Apr 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


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