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Monday October 25, 2010 - 12:12:01 GMT
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U.S. Equities Set to Open Higher; Weak Dollar Underpinning Gold

The weaker Greenback is helping to boost U.S. equity prices overnight, leading to the call for a higher opening. There is not much to say technically about the stock indices. The rallies have been labored, leading to periodic weakness, but investors have been waiting to buy the dips.

 

Despite expectations of additional quantitative easing by the Fed, the December Treasury Bonds have been sitting inside of a tight retracement range at 132’11 to 131’20. The market is likely to sit in a narrow range until after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 3. There may be some pressure this week or at the least, rallies could be muted because of additional debt supply concerns.

 

The weaker Dollar is triggering a rally in December Gold. Technically this market is recovering following a test of a 50% level at $1313.00. The current chart pattern suggests a rally to $1351.80 to $1360.40 is likely.

 

The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply lower against all major currencies after the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers over the weekend failed to come up with any plan to shore up the Greenback.

 

The U.S. Dollar’s downtrend is likely to continue after the G-20’s joint committee warned of the need to move toward more “market-determined” currency exchange rates. This basically means no interference from the central banks. This same committee also said that a global economic recovery is underway but uneven. By allowing letting the market determine the Dollar’s value, the G-20 is saying the stronger currencies will prevail.

 

The December Japanese Yen continued its rally, reaching a fresh 15-year high. This pair is rapidly approaching its 1.2500 high hit during the second quarter of 1995.  The rise in the Yen is also putting a hurt on Japanese companies and the economy.

 

The December Euro resumed its rally. Although the daily main trend indicator is still down, upside momentum is building which may mean another test of the last main top at 1.3884.

 

After forming a support base at a major 50% level at 1.5701, the GBP USD is mounting a small rally. Expectations are for this pair to rally back to a downtrending Gann angle at 1.5866. If upside momentum is strong enough, this market may reach a 50% level at 1.5878. This could be another selling opportunity as traders still feel the Bank of England will implement another round of quantitative easing because of the weakening economy.

 

After a strong short-covering rally drove the December Canadian Dollar into a major 50% level, it looks as if this market is set to resume its uptrend. This morning this pair is testing a retracement zone at .9815 to .9860. Once this area is cleared, look for a test of a downtrending Gann angle at .9865.

 

Although the Bank of Canada refrained from hiking its benchmark interest rate earlier in the month while warning of an economic slowdown, the U.S. Dollar is just too weak to ignore, thereby setting up the Canadian Dollar for another test of parity over the short-run.

 

After an early response to the G-20 announcement, traders will be given a chance to react to this morning’s U.S. existing Home Sales. Early guesses are for this report to show a rise of 6.3% to 4.39 million. This is versus last month’s rise of 7.7%. 

 

It’s still too early for traders to shut down in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announcement on November 3.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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