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Tuesday October 26, 2010 - 15:47:07 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

US Market Update

Dow -4 S&P -1 NASDAQ +4

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (IR) Ireland Sept PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5% prior
- (EU) ECB drained €63.5B v €63.5B targeted in 7-day Term Deposit tender
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Oct 23rd: +0.3% w/w; +1.9% y/y
- (BR) Brazil Sept Private Banks Lending (BRL): 932B v 912B prior; Total Outstanding Loans: 1.612T v $1.580T prior
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 23rd: +2.8% y/y;
MTD: +0.3% v Sept
- (US) Aug S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Indes: 148.59 v 148.91 prior; Composite-20 Y/Y: 1.7%e v 2.1%e
- (US) Oct Consumer Confidence: 50.2 v 49.9e
- (US) Aug House Price Index M/M: +0.4% v -0.2%e
- (US) Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5 v 1e

- US equity markets opened lower after a better than expected print in Q3 UK GDP reversed some of the recent QE2 flows driving markets. US and
UK data has exceeded expectations and has some investors rethinking their view ahead of Friday's US advanced GDP number. The Dollar has found some traction while initially commodities traded lower and investors bowed out of the relative safety of government bonds. The 10-year GILT yield has retaken 3%, while the Bund is above 2.5% and the US 10-year yield is above 2.6% for the first time in roughly a month. Earnings reports this morning have been somewhat disappointing with several real stinkers, including disturbing misses and or guidance from the likes of steel names US Steel, Acrelor Mittal and AK Steel. The other US data has been relatively positive, with the October consumer confidence and Aug house price index beating expectations. The October Richmond Fed manufacturing survey was much better than expected, echoing the other October regional Fed manufacturing surveys. Crude is a little higher this morning, approaching nearing $83 despite a firmer Greenback. Gold is more or less flat on the day, at around $1,337.

- Valero is the first major
US energy firm to report Q3 results. Valero crushed revenue targets in its Q3 results, beating estimates by a solid 10%, while earnings were better than expected. Dow component DuPont roundly beat expectations and raised its 2010 guidance slightly. On the conference call, DuPont's CEO offered a sunny view of the firm's Q4. Shares of VLO have been very volatile, opening up 1%, shooting down to -1%, then recovering, before returning back to the flatline. Steel names US Steel and AK Steel both surprised investors with larger-than-expected quarterly losses. US Steel's loss would have been even greater if not for a big $0.96 gain on FX. Both AK and US Steel blamed their terrible quarters on a combination of higher iron ore costs and lower shipments. Neither expects conditions to improve much in Q4. Shares of X are -4% and AKS are -5%.

- Ford continues to recover well from its near-death experience in the financial crisis. In Q3 the firm beat earnings targets and met revenue expectations, on very strong net income growth. The firm said it would be "debt neutral" by the end of the year, ahead of schedule, and said its market share continues to growth in US. Shares of Ford are in the black, but only just. Truck engine maker Cummins was more or less in line with the Street in its Q3 report and raised its full-year ebit forecast slightly. CMI is down 1%. Johnson Controls beat top- and bottom-line estimates in its Q4 report. However, shares of JCI fell 7% before the open and remain not far from their lows after the firm only reiterated its solid FY11 guidance after asserting its backlog for the next three years has grown sharply.

- Major semi name Texas Instruments came in a hair ahead of the consensus in its Q3 report. The firm said that it expects sequentially lower revenue in Q4, reflecting a combination of seasonal patterns, continued soft demand in computing and consumer markets, and slowing growth in the industrial market.
TXN is down one percent. Shares of IBM have jumped after the firm announced a $10B share buyback program. Amgen, Bristol Meyers and Biogen all modestly exceeded estimates in their Q3 reports. Shares of all three pharmas are down around 1% a piece.

- The upside surprise in the UK GDP data aided the greenback during the New York session as dealers rethought the probability any Fed QE2 ahead of US GDP data later this week. The
US 10-year yield climbed higher to approach 2.61%. S&P boosted sterling after the ratings agency removed the threat of any near-term sovereign downgrade of the country's "AAA" rating, revising its UK ratings outlook to stable from negative. GBP/USD approached the 1.59 handle before settling down. EUR/USD tested below the 1.3870 level aided by a reversal by a major bank's technical forecast away from its prior bullish view on the pair. USD/JPY eased away from the 15-year lows seen in the prior session, returning to an hourly pivot point around the 81.50 area. The US consumer confidence data provided additional momentum for further USD gains against the major European and commodity-related pairs.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds
- 12:00 (FR) France Sept Net Change Jobseekers: No est v 15.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.693M
- 12:30 (EU) De Gucht Speaks in Debate on EU-China Relations
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35.0B in 2-year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 25.1% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly EIA Energy Inventories
- 16:30 (US) Fed's Dudley to Speak at University of Rochester


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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