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Wednesday June 2, 2004 - 08:05:49 GMT -

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Bull Flag in Pound Dollar

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-2-2004

Bull Flag in Pound Dollar
Dollar Yen Above 200-day EMA

See chart of the day for EURUSD. With oscillators coming off oversold territory, the rally in USDJPY above the swing high / 38.2% retracement of 103.40-114.90 / May 4 high and 200-day EMA at 110.50/60 will give scope for a move towards the 111.10/15 May 28 high and 10-day EMA. Bulls however, will need to generate a sustained rally above 112.15, the May 27 high and 50% retracement of 120.67-103.42 for a chance to retest the 114.85 May 14 top. A failed break of 112.25/35, the 20-day SMA and March 5 & 8 highs will inspire new shorts. Key support is at 109.20, the June 1 low / 50 & 200-day SMA cross and lower Bollinger. A bull flag pattern in the GBPUSD confirms the pair's upward momentum towards the key 1.8500 fibo resistance (61.8% of 1.9140-1.7450). This level may inspire reversal players thanks to the 61.8% fibo from the Feb-May bear wave, but a close above the 1.8603 April 1 high would support the outlook for a renewed bout of strength towards the Feb 18 11yr high at 1.9140. Immediate support is at 1.8295, the May 28 & 31 low and the 50% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Aggressive buy on dip players will find 1.8220, the 10-day EMA and 100-day SMA an attractive entry point. However, more conservative bulls may wait for the more significant support at 1.8100, the May 27 low / 10-day EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Bearish momentum remains the dominant theme in USDCHF with the pair testing the May 28 1.2430 low. Aggressive bears will be looking to sell on a break of this level targeting the 7 year low at 1.2140. Interim support will come in at 1.2390, the Feb 25 low and 76.4% retracement of 1.2141-1.3226. A retracement above 1.2545/55, the March 24 low and 61.8% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 will give bears the chance to sell towards 1.2680/1.2715, the 100-day SMA / Ichimoku cloud resistance and 50% retracement of 1.2140-1.3226.


Comment from 04/23
On 03/18 the EZ currency had a high at 2435 (below the 2480/2500 zone) and found S a couple of days later on the 03/29 Low at 2046 (slightly below our 2100/20 zone). A quick rally occurred the following days. EURUSD is now in a downtrend but now reaching critical S. As a result, reversal players will step in at 1720/50 the 50% Fibo from the Mar03 - Mar 04 bull wave and Low BB. Only serious S below is 1.1400 the 76.2% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Mar 04 bull wave. Bears will add on bounces at 2150/2200 (50 SMA and 38.2% Fibo from the Feb - April bear wave). A break there would open the door to 1.2550/2600 where bears might step in to exploit the 38.2% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave.

On 04/26 the EZ currency had a low at 1759 (slightly above our 1720/50 area) before a rally to the 2182 high on 05/05, 423pts higher. The cross fell once again in the 1700 area (low at 1771 on 05/13, 411pts lower) and rallied to the 2300 high a couple of days ago. Today the EURUSD outlook is certainly positive but the single currency needs to confirm its renewed strength. Multi lows above 2200 are required. For now, aggressive players will play the range. 2130/50 will attract bulls thanks to the 38.2% Fibo from the Feb - Apr bear wave and the 10 SMA while 2320/50 will attract bears thanks to the 100 SMA, High BB and 50% Fibo from the Feb - Apr bear wave. More conservative bulls will wait for 1880/1910 in order to exploit the 76.4% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bull wave. A breakout below would then open the door to 1700/50 (50% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Mar 04 bull wave and Low BB). Finally conservative bears will keep in mind the 61.8% Fibo from the Feb - Apr bear wave at the 2450/2500 level.


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