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Friday October 29, 2010 - 10:09:02 GMT
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European Market Update: Peripheral concerns continue to simmer; US GDP seen as clue to Fed's QE2 decision (TTN)

Friday, October 29, 2010 5:57:32 AM

 European Market Update: Peripheral concerns continue to simmer; US GDP seen as clue to Fed's QE2 decision


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves Refi Rate unchanged at 7.75%; (In line with expectations)
- (GE) Germany Sept Retail Sales M/M: -2.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 2.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Q3 House Prices Q/Q: 0.4% v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.8% v 10.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Aug Final Trade Balance: -€19M v -€5M prelim
- (SA) South Africa Sept Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Sept Producer Prices M/M: -0.9% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.9% v 9.1%e
- (NO) Norway Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.7%e
- (SP) Spain Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (SP) Spain Q3 Unemployment Rate: 19.8% v 20.1%e
- (SW) Sweden Aug Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.6% prior
- (TH) Thailand Sept Current Account: $2.8B v $2.4Be; Total Trade Balance: $3.2B v $852M prior; Overall Trade Balance $4.3B v $3.6B prior
- (TH) Thailand Sept Business Sentiment: 50.6 v 50.3 prior
- (IT) Italy Sept PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.1%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: 1.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: £300M v £0.0Me (flat); Net Lending: £0.1B v £1.0Be
- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 47.5K v 46.0Ke

- (UK) Sept Final M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.2% v -0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9% prelim
- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct
CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.1%e
- (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e
- (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.7%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Govt Budget (HKD): -5.0B v -3.9B prior
- (IC) Iceland Sept Final Trade Balance (ISK) 10.6B v 11.2B prior
- (IT) Italy Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v8.3%e
- (GR) Greece Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -6.3% v -3.9% prior
- (SP) Spain Aug Current Account: -€2.9B v -€1.9B prior
- (SZ) Swiss Oct KOF Leading Indicator: 2.17 v 2.16e

- Focus on the first reading of US Q3 GDP today. A weak number will re-ignite the talk on fresh QE2 measures.
- Japan data weak across the board (industrial Production, Household spending and
CPI thus the Nikkei-225 Index lover by 1.5%
- China Central Bank Advisor: CNY currency needs to be more flexible. Appreciation is long term process and defines gradual appreciation between 3-5% annually.
- MSFT beat estimates aided by strong business demand
- European peripherals continue to widen; Greek/German premium back above 800bps
- Greece's Piraeus Bank confirms rights issue for about €800M
- North and South Korea said to exchange gunshots at border

European indexes as of 05:45 FTSE100 at 5654, -0.4% ; CAC40 -0.6% at 3813; DAX -0.3% at 6577; Eurostoxx50 -0.6% at 2,828

- European shares retreated during the session as investors eye US GDP data for the third quarter. Shares tracked losses in the Asian session also because investors are worried ahead of US Fed QE move early next week. Among notable individual names, Total reported its Q3 earnings which slightly beat analysts' estimates due to higher oil prices which had also lifted the results of its peers such as Eni and Shell. Both revenues in the upstream and downstream had increased while hydrocarbon production had increased. Investors also welcomed the change in dividend policy as company will pay a quarterly dividend instead of a semi-annual one, which is in line with its peers. Spanish carrier
Iberia [IBLA.SP] also beat estimates as passengers revenues had increased. Company cited a recovery in business travel on long-distance flights and strict cost control. British Airways [BAY.UK] swung to profit in the first half while revenues met analysts' expectations. Passenger revenues and capacity had increased on a yearly basis. Company noted uncertainty in the market for 2011.
Europe's lender Austrian Erste Bank [EBS.AS] beat market expectations as it reported a 16% increase in profit citing a decline in provisions. Net trading results were also higher on a quarterly basis. However, bad loans continue to be a problem in Spain as evidenced by Banco Popular's [POP.SP]results. Its Q3 net beat estimates but the bad loans ratio had increased.

- EU Summit targeted to ratify planned limited treaty changes by mid-2013 and to take final decision on outline of Euro zone crisis resolution mechanism in December - Draft Document
- German Chancellor Merkel commented that it could b stated that the euro currency would be strengthened by the EU budget rule reform
- China PBoC research bureau Zhang Jianhua commented that US Quantitative easing measures would pressure emerging markets. He noted that emerging markets might face fund inflow and outflow pressures over the next few years. He added that
China did not factor asset prices directly via monetary policy at this time. Instead China preferred a 'tailored' approach to address property and equity prices. He added that China's recent interest rate increase did not target property prices.
China researcher stated that PBoC monetary policy should consider asset prices and consumer prices. China should lower its economic growth rate to help in restructuring
North Korea fires several gunshots in the direction of South Korean military unit according to the South Korean Defense Ministry. The press noted that it was unclear whether if North Korea fired shots intentionally and added that South Korea returned fire
- Hungary Debt Agency Chief Pleschinger commented in a newspaper interview that the country's public debt could begin to decline in 2010 if the HUF currency remained near 270 per euro

- The market sentiment has continued to reflect choppy global growth expectations and the pendulum swung back into risk aversion mode. Disappoint industrial production readings out of both
Japan and South Korea took precedent and reversed the recent batch of encouraging corporate earnings reports and drop in US weekly jobless claims. The peripheral situation continued to moved towards the front burner as the spread between Greek/German 10-year Gov't bond widened to test above 800bps (its widest reading in Oct). Greece's Piraeus Bank confirmed it would launch a rights issue for about €800M. Nonetheless the outcome of incoming US economic data will remain a crucial focus in respect to Fed policy on the need for further QE measures and possibly the USD's year-end fate.
- The USD, CHF and JPY currencies were firmer against the European and commodity-related pairs heading into the NY morning. EUR/USD drifting back down over 120 pips towards the 1.3800 area. The USD/JPY remains within striking distance of fresh 15-year lows while EUR/JPY dropped over 110 pips to test 111.60. EUR/CHF down 60+ pips at 1.3655.
- The beginning of Nov has dealers keenly aware that notable risk events do loom, including the FOMC and mid-term elections in the US next week, and the G20 summit in Korea the week after that. These events will bring respective decisions and perhaps guidance on the key issues of
U.S. quantitative easing, US. fiscal policy, and major economy currency policy

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
- In the Telegraph, according to British building society Nationwide, if the current trends with British house prices continue, they could eventually decline by as much as 1% by the end of the year, a significant difference of 5.9% in 2009. Note the most recent data released on 29th of October by Nationwide placed October house prices down 0.7% month on month.
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard noted that concerns were raised by bondholders following plans by the European Union to force bondholders to share losses from any future bailouts. According to RBS Europe economist Silvio Peruzzo, talk of "haircuts" for bondholders in the current fragile environment could backfire, as the EU debt crisis has not been sorted out.
- It was reported out of the
Czech Republic that the cabinet will speed up legislation, relating to the budget reduction, through the process of legislative emergency. Yesterday lawmakers in the country approved the first budget draft for next year, setting a limit of 135 billion koruna.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (BE) Belgium Sept Budget Balance YTD: -€ v -€7.2B prior
- (BE) Belgium Sept Unemployment Rate: % v 8.7% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: % v 3.9% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.2% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: % v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: % v -0.7% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong M3 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 5.2% prior; M2 Y/Y: % v 5.3% prior; M1 Y/Y: % v 12.6% prior
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: % v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.3% prior
- 8:00 (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.1%e v 8.3% prior
- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.3BeNo est v -4.7B prior
- 8:30 (SA) South Africa Sept Budget (ZAR): -11.0Be v -9.4B prior
- 8:30 (BR) Brazil Primary Budget Balance (BRL): 30.0Be v 5.2B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: 11.2Be v 10.5B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v %41.4 prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Aug Gross Domestic Product M/M: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 2.20% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Advanced GDP QoQ Annualized: 2.0%e v 1.7% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.5%e v 2.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 9:45 (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager: 58.0e v 60.4 prior
- 9:55 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 68.0e v 67.9 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct NAPM-Milwaukee: No est v 50 prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Urban Unemployment Rate: 12.0e v 12.2% prior
- 14:30 (MX) Mexico Sept YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -140.3B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 8.1% prior
- 21:00 (CH) China Oct PMI Manufacturing
- 22:30 (CH) China Oct HSBC Manufacturing PMI



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