User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday October 29, 2010 - 13:15:17 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics - www.fxa.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Random Thoughts on QE2 and EM Salvation

 The Bill Gross piece (PIMCO) on the end of the 30-year bond market rally is clever and to the point…in his unique style he manages to avoid taking sides in the political economic debate raging into the election…suspect he has learned over the decades about burning bridges…I thank the stars nightly for being self-employed. 

 

But one question that Gross (and Stiglitz in WSJ) alludes to and I think demands more attention is a basic econ theory dilemma…if we assume that monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap (the lesson from Japan and the 1930’s), then, according to Keynes and his many followers in mainstream economics, the only effective policy response is fiscal stimulus.  Where is fiscal stimulus today in the US and elsewhere?  Contracting.  In the US we are on the downhill side of the near $800bln Obama stimulus and facing the possible withdrawal of the Bush tax cuts if Congress fails to extend or make permanent the tax cuts for the middle class and wealthy.  How could a Republican victory in the House not lead to an extension of the tax cuts?  Very easily.  The Republicans will demand that the tax cuts are made permanent, while the Democrats will say only for the middle class and not the wealthy and offer a compromise – all cuts extended temporarily, which the GOP might very easily reject.  I think the Fed is, for the foreseeable future, the only game in town and in time will try to fill the shoes of fiscal policy tied up in gridlock.  However, the econ 101 axiom of monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap makes the Fed’s QE2 departure one giant placebo (potentially).  What QE2 is very likely to do is drive up (risk) asset prices and drive down the dollar…but it is far from clear this ever translates into more consumption and investment from households and firms fearing the inflation dragon.  Frankly the odds of success are very low.  So why would the Fed do this knowing the odds are stacked against it?  Because they are paid to smooth the business cycle and legislated by law to aim for price stability and full employment.  Not doing anything is not an option.  This also begs the question that doing QE2 in super size fashion versus the mini snack portion is far more justified given the poor odds that QE2 (surely QE2-lite) will work (maybe not up front in light of the hullabaloo over QE in the last few weeks). 

 

So if the Fed is at best tap dancing (looking busy to buy time and support asset prices…they discount future eco activity…must mean recovery of stocks are rising…right?) where is the US recovery going to come from?  Emerging markets.  It is a sad day for those longing for a US recovery and full employment when the Fed is tap dancing and a US rebound depends on strong emerging economies flipping a switch from export-led growth to domestic-demand led growth at most or balanced growth at least.  And what is the litmus test for making that transition?  Significant currency appreciation.  That condo in Wasilla with views of Russia must be looking pretty nice if you believe this one. 

 

With all the eggs in the emerging market basket, what is the chance of getting this right?  Well this is a G20 story and last weekend’s G20 meeting was at most a temporary ceasefire in the currency war…Brazil’s Mantega and Meirelles boycotted G20 last week.   Geithner was unable to convince anyone other than Korea to agree to a current account target-based adjustment process overseen by the IMF….ironically his last minute brain storm was an effort to move to a less controversial adjustment agreement than an FX based one.  G20 actually agreed to nothing on emerging countries letting their exchange rates appreciate (narrowed down to ones with large surpluses and actively managed FX regimes…read Asia EM).  So in all its competing interests the future of global economic expansion rests with China and Asia X-Japan getting it and turning to a new orientation of their respective economies…the next growth engine is the Asian consumer.   I’ll take two condos in Wasilla with the Russia view.  Can you see Beijing from Petropavlosk-Kamatchatskiy?  

 

The only thing I see clearly from Essex is years of economic underperformance in the developed world and in time serious moderation in growth in EM.  Or maybe it’s Tokyo that I see from my window.

 

David Gilmore

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105