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Friday October 29, 2010 - 15:37:26 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Friday, October 29, 2010 11:31:17 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -4.3 S&P -0.5 NASDAQ +4.3

***Economic Data***
- (IR) Ireland Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.9% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v 1.1% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: -1.4% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.7% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: -4.8% v 3.9% prior; Y/Y: -2,4% v 0.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.7% v 5.2% prior; M2 Y/Y: 8.9% v 5.3% prior; M1 Y/Y: 19.8% v 12.6% prior
- (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.1%e
- (SA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): +3.6B v -2.3Be
- (SA) South Africa Sept Budget (ZAR): -12.4BB -11.0Be
- (BE) Belgium Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.7% prior
- (US) Q3 Advanced
GDP Q/Q Annualized: 2.0% v 2.0%e; Personal Consumption: 2.6% v 2.5%e
- (US) Q3 Advanced
GDP Price Index: 2.3% v 1.8%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.08% v 1.0%e
- (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.4% v 1.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Primary Budget Balance (BRL): 27.8B v 30.0Be; Nominal Budget Balance: 11.8B v 11.2Be; Net Debt to
GDP Ratio: 41.0% v 41.4% prior
- (BE) Belgium Sept Budget Balance YTD: -€12.5B v -€7.2B prior
- (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.6 v 58.0e
- (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 67.7 v 68.0e
- (US) Oct
NAPM-Milwaukee: 56.0 v 50.0 prior

- With the first look at US Q3
GDP right in line with expectations, market participants believe the data will prompt the Fed to greenlight QE2 next week. Although the headline numbers were relatively strong, some believe the Fed will focus on today's PCE price data, which showed that the annualized growth rate of core decelerated and could very well decelerate further over the course of the quarter. Note that October PCE data is due out on Monday, with estimates calling for flat reading. In other data, the Final University of Michigan confidence data was at November, 2009 levels. US equity indices are crawling sideways, with optimism about more easing tempered by weak quarterly results from individual firms. Treasury prices remain buoyed by the expectations of a significant QE announcement next week. The 10-year note is up 11 ticks in the cash market pushing the yield down to 2.618%.

- The oil patch is not looking strong this morning. Shares of Chevron are down 2% after the firm missed Wall Street's earnings and revenue targets. The company blamed a strong negative FX impact. It also disclosed that its
US output fell 7% y/y. Dominion Energy is also down 2% after the firm cut its 2010 earnings outlook. Sunoco's quarterly operating profit was half the expected amount. SUN is down 4%.

- Quarterly results from Dow component Merck was right in line with expectations, although the firm's earnings were half the amount seen a year ago. MRK is down nearly 2%. MetLife's quarterly EPS was a bit under par. The company does not typically provide a full year forecasts, although executives suggested that the acquisition of Alico from
AIG would boost FY11 results, perhaps more than the initial estimates offered back in August. Shares of MET fell as much as 3% before the open and have recovered nicely to +1% in early trading. Health insurance name Cigna was right in line with expectations in its Q3 and also raised its 2010 outlook slightly. Shares of CI are in the red.

- Industrial names offered relatively positive results. American Axle crushed both top- and bottom-line estimates and reiterated its strong FY10 guidance. Note that the firm also said that its non-GM sales have nearly doubled.
Forest products name Weyerhaeuser's earnings were more than twice the expected figure, with revenue also ahead of the Street's estimates. However, the firm's outlook for Q4 was less than sunny, with projected sequential declines in most of its businesses.

- In tech, Ingram Micro's quarterly results were mixed. The company also launched a big stock buyback program. Ingram's CEO said that sales in Asia-Pacific hit a historic high while North American sales were at the highest third quarter level in 10 years. IM has been in and out of negative territory. McAfee beat the Street modestly and shares of MFE are unchanged. First Solar beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance, but shares are down nearly 8%. Apparently investors aren't happy with some cautious comments about pricing.

- The greenback saw a good portion of its overnight gains evaporate after GDP data came in right in line as dealers concluded that QE2 measures remain on track. EUR/USD tested above the 1.39 level following the data release but remained in negative territory from its Asian opening levels and in the middle of its weekly 400-pip range.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Lending Rate Unchanged at 3.00% level- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Urban Unemployment Rate: 12.0%e v 12.2% prior
- 14:30 (MX) Mexico Sept YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -140.3B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 8.1% prior
- 21:00 (CH) China Oct PMI Manufacturing
- 22:30 (CH) China Oct HSBC Manufacturing PMI



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