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Friday October 29, 2010 - 15:37:26 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Friday, October 29, 2010 11:31:17 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -4.3 S&P -0.5 NASDAQ +4.3


***Economic Data***
- (IR) Ireland Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.9% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v 1.1% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: -1.4% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.7% prior
- (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: -4.8% v 3.9% prior; Y/Y: -2,4% v 0.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.7% v 5.2% prior; M2 Y/Y: 8.9% v 5.3% prior; M1 Y/Y: 19.8% v 12.6% prior
- (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.1%e
- (SA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): +3.6B v -2.3Be
- (SA) South Africa Sept Budget (ZAR): -12.4BB -11.0Be
- (BE) Belgium Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.7% prior
- (US) Q3 Advanced
GDP Q/Q Annualized: 2.0% v 2.0%e; Personal Consumption: 2.6% v 2.5%e
- (US) Q3 Advanced
GDP Price Index: 2.3% v 1.8%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.08% v 1.0%e
- (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.4% v 1.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Primary Budget Balance (BRL): 27.8B v 30.0Be; Nominal Budget Balance: 11.8B v 11.2Be; Net Debt to
GDP Ratio: 41.0% v 41.4% prior
- (BE) Belgium Sept Budget Balance YTD: -€12.5B v -€7.2B prior
- (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.6 v 58.0e
- (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 67.7 v 68.0e
- (US) Oct
NAPM-Milwaukee: 56.0 v 50.0 prior

- With the first look at US Q3
GDP right in line with expectations, market participants believe the data will prompt the Fed to greenlight QE2 next week. Although the headline numbers were relatively strong, some believe the Fed will focus on today's PCE price data, which showed that the annualized growth rate of core decelerated and could very well decelerate further over the course of the quarter. Note that October PCE data is due out on Monday, with estimates calling for flat reading. In other data, the Final University of Michigan confidence data was at November, 2009 levels. US equity indices are crawling sideways, with optimism about more easing tempered by weak quarterly results from individual firms. Treasury prices remain buoyed by the expectations of a significant QE announcement next week. The 10-year note is up 11 ticks in the cash market pushing the yield down to 2.618%.

- The oil patch is not looking strong this morning. Shares of Chevron are down 2% after the firm missed Wall Street's earnings and revenue targets. The company blamed a strong negative FX impact. It also disclosed that its
US output fell 7% y/y. Dominion Energy is also down 2% after the firm cut its 2010 earnings outlook. Sunoco's quarterly operating profit was half the expected amount. SUN is down 4%.

- Quarterly results from Dow component Merck was right in line with expectations, although the firm's earnings were half the amount seen a year ago. MRK is down nearly 2%. MetLife's quarterly EPS was a bit under par. The company does not typically provide a full year forecasts, although executives suggested that the acquisition of Alico from
AIG would boost FY11 results, perhaps more than the initial estimates offered back in August. Shares of MET fell as much as 3% before the open and have recovered nicely to +1% in early trading. Health insurance name Cigna was right in line with expectations in its Q3 and also raised its 2010 outlook slightly. Shares of CI are in the red.

- Industrial names offered relatively positive results. American Axle crushed both top- and bottom-line estimates and reiterated its strong FY10 guidance. Note that the firm also said that its non-GM sales have nearly doubled.
Forest products name Weyerhaeuser's earnings were more than twice the expected figure, with revenue also ahead of the Street's estimates. However, the firm's outlook for Q4 was less than sunny, with projected sequential declines in most of its businesses.

- In tech, Ingram Micro's quarterly results were mixed. The company also launched a big stock buyback program. Ingram's CEO said that sales in Asia-Pacific hit a historic high while North American sales were at the highest third quarter level in 10 years. IM has been in and out of negative territory. McAfee beat the Street modestly and shares of MFE are unchanged. First Solar beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance, but shares are down nearly 8%. Apparently investors aren't happy with some cautious comments about pricing.

- The greenback saw a good portion of its overnight gains evaporate after GDP data came in right in line as dealers concluded that QE2 measures remain on track. EUR/USD tested above the 1.39 level following the data release but remained in negative territory from its Asian opening levels and in the middle of its weekly 400-pip range.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Lending Rate Unchanged at 3.00% level- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Urban Unemployment Rate: 12.0%e v 12.2% prior
- 14:30 (MX) Mexico Sept YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -140.3B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 8.1% prior
- 21:00 (CH) China Oct PMI Manufacturing
- 22:30 (CH) China Oct HSBC Manufacturing PMI

 

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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