Dollar disappears! Every self-important guru worth his salt knows that.
this headline from the Bloomberg.com website today:
Dollar Once Slaughter Comes"
disagree gold will be left standing when paper currencies finally take
celestial dirt nap.But the headline
begs the question: just when will said top-dog paper currency take that
We know of
one guru who actually believes, or I should said believes it enough to
the consistent garbage he funnels onto people who know no better or want
believe such tripe, the US dollar will virtually disappear by 2012.Another major newsletter guru is much more
bullish, he too touts the dollar will indeed disappear, but not until
get into college -- no clue as to age of kids or whether they wish to
college so that forecast still a bit vague.
the favorite fiat of the major newsletter gurus for the replacement to
dollar emanates from seemingly everyoneâ€™s hegemonic hermit kingdom --
yuan.If you want to read some excellent
reasons why China is a VERY long way from making this happen, we
piece by Mr. Michael Pettis -- don't take our word for
it.And please donâ€™t take the words of our
illustrious guru "friends."
type of talk -- the yuan taking the place of the dollar is part and
parcel to the
huge negative sentiment towards the buck right now.No surprise really.When
helicopters are on a mission to air drop as many pallets of greenbacks
as they can, it can shake oneâ€™s confidence in the future of the
currency.But as we all know, maximum bearishness is
usually a great time to buy an asset, not sell it.
will be quite happy to exit global rebalancing fully intact; worrying
currency hegemony is likely not on the agenda.Heck, they
have rare earth materials to stockpile and are still too busy trying to
words from their official language, which might lead to more
as: democracy, Chart 08, and riots.It
would be a perfect job for Winston Smith, a clerk in the Records
the Ministry of Truth, as described in Orwellâ€™s classic 1984. Winston
very good, and he didn't even have the top Western internet software to
with in his days.
two items above if true, doesn't mean the dollar jumps for joy in a
trend.But it does mean this: the dollar
will more than likely remain at the center of global finance during our
lifetimes and will move up or down during that time as it always has,
the buying and selling by real people reacting on the truth or falsehood
their expectations as the light of real events plays out.
effort to share my guru tendencies with you, and not having the benefit
of the "kids going to college someday forecast," as three of my four
kids are done
college and the last crumb cruncher is already matriculating.Plus,
I think it highly unlikely even Uncle
Sam, imbued in his infinite wisdom and resources, has enough left over
works to go door to door collecting all those greenbacks in time to make
disappear by 2012.So I did the next
best thing and developed an equation.Now I can say, "on the other
hand," just like real economists do.
?(GC)? + QE2?=+
GC = Global Cooperation
QE = Quantitative Easing
EM = Emerging Markets
The dollar goes lower if global cooperation on the currency front
any better, or much worse, and if QE2 is more than or equal to what is
expected, and EM markets continue to grow without concern of bubble
dollar goes higher if:
?(GC)?or? Â» QE2
?+ EM? ?
this is just one of many iterations of our equation.That
is what is so great about equations; you
can play with the variables with impunity.It is why economists love them so.The iteration above says:
goes higher if global cooperation improves, i.e. implicit deal between
and China, which assumes lower than now anticipated QE2;or
if global cooperation gets worse, i.e.
trade tariffs materialize, the dollar goes higher on a risk bid; and the
goes higher on any emerging market accident a la the risk bid.
line:If the US
continues to muddle-through, and
everyone is happy with the dollar as global fuel to prop up risky asset
the buck looks like it will be heading to dirt nap territory and all the
of its disappearance will be re-emphasized in the usual full confidence,
expected.But if price really does lead
fundamentals, as we believe they do, and the dollar for some strange
doesn't soon retest the weekly trend, just maybe the sentiment extreme
for a while no matter how many helicopters are in the air.
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