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Monday November 1, 2010 - 10:04:47 GMT
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European Market Update: Peripheral price action diverges in session; GBP benefits from better PMI Manufacturing reading (TTN)

Monday, November 01, 2010 5:55:19 AM

 European Market Update: Peripheral price action diverges in session; GBP benefits from better PMI Manufacturing reading

 

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Sept Trade Balance: -$9.1 v -$9.1B prelim; Exports: Y/Y: 23.2% v 22.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: 27.1 v 32.2% prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct Swedbank PMI Survey: 61.8 v 61.3e
- (TU) Turkey Oct Manufacturing PMI: 54.3 v 50.3 prior
- (NO) Norway Oct PMI: 54.2 v 53.1 prior
- (CZ) Czech Oct Manufacturing PMI: 57.2 v 58.0 prior
- (DE) Denmark Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.9%e
- (SZ) Swiss Oct SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 59.2 v 59.3e
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 17.2% v 16.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 15.8% v 13.5%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.3%e
- (SA) South Africa Oct Kagiso PMI: 49.8 v 48.6 prior
- (UK) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 54.9 v 53.0e; First MoM increase since may

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
Notes/Observations:
- China and India PMIs exceed analyst estimates; South Korea trade data shows stronger export and import components.
- Portugal's ruling and opposition parties reached an agreement on the 2011 budget over the weekend
- UK Oct PMI Manufacturing registers its first Month-on-month gain since May
- European clocks set back an hour with the US poised to do the same next weekend
- Thin markets with All-Saint Day holiday in Europe

Equities:
European indexes as of 05:45 Eurostoxx50 at 2871, +0.91%, FTSE100 at 5722, +0.8%, CAC40 at 3871, +0.97%, DAX at 6666, +0.99%

- European shares gained in the morning following China's 6-month high PMI which improved sentiment in the Asian markets already.
- In individual names, Ryanair [RYA.UK] reported its first half figures beating expectations and raising the outlook for 2010,. The good news followed the trend of major airlines which reported last week such as British Airways which reported a profit for the first time in 2 years, while Lufthansa and Air France also raised their outlook. Ryanair pegged the improvement in outlook to better winter yields but noted that visibility for Q4 is uncertain and the remained cautious. Shares fell 3.7%. Company's main competitor, Easyjet is expected to report on November 16th .
- Dutch mail company TNT [TNT.NV] slipped about 2.8% after company missed estimates. Furthermore, company expected addressed volume to decline in the
Netherlands at the upper end of its prior guidance of 7-9%.
- In M&A news, BHP [
BHP.AU] rose about 1% after an article on Sunday times reported that the company may raise its $39B bid for Potash around 10%. Bayer [BAYN.GE] rose as well after a phase III study of Rivoroxaban met its primary efficacy endpoint.

Speakers:
- IEA commented that the global economy recovery has been more fragile than expected and expressed concern that any rapid increase in oil prices could impact the recovery. It noted that that the current oil markets remained well supplied and that "very high" OECD countries oil inventories to continue in to 2011. China's oil demand to be growth driver next year and added that one could see a commodity asset bubble if the Fed launches a second round of quantitative easing measures
- China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) commented that the Yuan currency faced large appreciation pressures due to competitive depreciation of other currencies. It stated that the scenario of a currency war was worsening as persistent depreciation of the USD had already caused
Japan, South Korea, Thailand and other countries to intervene in currency markets. It believed USD was likely to continue falling in the medium term with gold and oil becoming countries' choices for reserves. It saw China 2010 total foreign trading rising 25% y/y but likely to slow in 2011 due to many factors including global energy and resources prices rising further in 2011.
- IMF Romania mission chief commented that international lenders agreed to release the next tranche of loans due under the country €20B bailout plan.

Currencies:
- The USD initially recovered from its soft tone in Asian and was briefly in positive territory against the major European pairs but the rising risk appetite sentiment continued to be a headwind for any significant dollar momentum. Nonetheless the USD was mixed against the major pairs as the NY morning approached.
- The Peripheral situation in
Europe simmered down a bit after the Portuguese political parties reached an agreement over the weekend to pass its 2011 budget. Dealers also noted the return of several Greek banks in dealing in the inter-bank for the first time since March (Implying that their lines of credit have been restored). However, the Irish spread bucked the trend and widened to a record level against the 10-year German Bund and this appeared to chip away at the overall sentiment in the region.
- EUR/USD hovering just below the 1.40 handle as the NY morning approached. The USD/JPY coming precariously close to test below the 80 level after a 'trading 'glitch' sent it towards 81.40 in the early part of the Asian session. Japanese officlas would not comment on any intervention during that situation.
- The
GBP took advantage of its first MoM rise in the PMI Manufacturing data to adds to its session gains. GBP/USD just off its best level of 1.6089 during the mid- European morning.

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on how the EU plans to have bondholders take losses in future sovereign bailouts is leading to a rise in uncertainty. According to data from Citigroup, foreign ownership of
Greece's debt during the second quarter declined by 14%; 12% for Portugal, 8% for Spain; and 5% for Ireland. As EU states need to issue €915B in new bonds in 2011, investors may demand higher premiums on the debt to compensate for the increase in uncertainty related to how the EU will address future sovereign bailouts.
- During the weekend, Portuguese Prime Minister Socrates' minority Socialist government and the main opposition party reached an agreement on the 2011 budget. The prime minister agreed to fewer new taxes, halting some infrastructure spending, with the opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD) having agreed to help pass the budget bill by abstaining in the first reading of the vote on Nov 3. All other parties have said they will vote against the bill. The agreement maintains the original target of reducing the deficit to 4.6% of
GDP by the end of 2011, from 7.3% expected this year. The Socialist also retained a 2 point increase in the VAT to 23%, but agreed to suspend major infrastructure projects, as a concession to the PSD. They also agreed to PSD demands to reduce other new tax proposals by €500M.
- The Guardian commented on last week's better than expected British economic data noting that it may temporarily have been boosted by construction data. According to many analysts mentioned in the article, headline economic figures should be ignored while examining which sectors are propelling the economy. The articles goes on to note that the best guide for construction is the government orders data, which hints downward with housing orders down sharply.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (RU) Russia Oct Reserve Fund: $ v $41.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $ v $89.5B prior
- (CZ) Czech Oct Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -99.6B prior
- (PE) Peru Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.4% prior; Wholesale Prices M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- 6:00 (DE) Denmark Oct Danish PMI Survey: v 50.6 prior
- 6:45 (TU)Turkey to Sell 2012 Zero Coupon and 2017 Floating Rate Note
- 7:00 (NV) Netherlands Debt Agency to sell up to €7.5B in Bills
- 7:00 (IS) Israel Indexed-Linked Bond Auction
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Oct PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.4 prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.4%e v - 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; PCE Core Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: 54.0e v 54.4 prior; ISM Prices Paid: 70.0e v 70.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v +0.4% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity Y/Y: % v 8.1% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 18.2% prior
- 23:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Cash Target unchanged at 4.50%
- (JP) BOJ to Release October 4-5th Board Meetings Minutes

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
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