***Economic Data*** - (DE) Denmark Oct Danish PMI Survey: 55.2 v 51.3 prior - (BR) Brazil Oct PMI Manufacturing: 49.5 v 50.4 prior - (US) Sept Personal Income: -0.1% v 0.2%e; Personal Spending: 0.2% v 0.4%e - (US) Sept PCE Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; PCE Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e - (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: 56.9 v 54.0e; ISM Prices Paid: 71.0 v 70.0e - (US) Sept Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- Strong manufacturing data from around the globe sent equities higher this morning. In the Asia session, October PMI data from India and China was very strong, and a raft of European PMI readings were also better than expected. After the open of US trading, the US the October ISM Manufacturing report roundly beat expectations, with broad-based strength seen in the key sub indices. With the FOMC almost universally expected to announce additional on Wednesday, traders sent stocks higher in the early going (reversing last week's trend of equity indices trading lower on better data). The S&P500 briefly approached multi-month highs, coming within four points of the key 1,200 last seen at the beginning of May. However, equities have rolled over in mid morning trading. The greenback has recouped its losses against the euro in US trading, with EUR/USD heading straight down after testing 1.40. Sterling remains well bid after the UK PMI reading came in strong, with GBP/USD below 1.6050 and just off two-week highs. US Treasury markets have given back some early gains after the better than expected ISM data. The 10-year yield is now higher by 4 basis points on the day at 2.63%. Oil prices shot up on the open of floor trade in NY. The Dec contract traded as high as $83.86 before backing off more than a dollar.
- There have been a fair amount of merger related flows this morning. Over the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that BHP might raise its $130/share bid for Potash by as much as 10%, possibly after the Canadian government clears the company to takeover Potash Corp. US drug wholesaler McKesson said it had purchased US Oncology for $2.16B. US Oncology is affiliated with more than 1,300 oncologists and provides an array of services including back office support and for research. M&T Bank announced that it would acquire Wilmington Trust, in a deal valued at $351M. Finally, there was chatter out overnight that IBM was considering a takeover approach for network security provider Fortinet
- In earnings, shares of managed care giant Humana are up after the firm blew out on earnings, which were helped by lower medical costs and strength in its plans serving Medicare recipients and employers. The firm did not offer FY11 guidance, however. Other large managed care names are trading up hand in hand with Humana. Corning is up a few percent after offering largely in line results. The firm warned that it anticipates that worldwide glass market demand could be flat to down slightly in Q4 on a sequential basis. Loews Corp's profit crushed expectations and revenue was in line.
- In other news, shares of mortgage insurer Ambac are down more than 50% after the troubled firm disclosed that it has been unable to raise additional capital and decided against making a regularly scheduled interest payment on its 2023 debentures due Nov 1st. The company said it was working to put together a prepackaged bankruptcy. Shares of pharma name Avanir have more than doubled in price after the FDA approved its drug Nuedexta as the first ever treatment for the neurological condition pseudobulbar affect (characterized by involuntary, sudden, and frequent episodes of laughing and/or crying).
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia Oct Reserve Fund: $ v $41.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $ v $89.5B prior - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchases Notes/Bonds - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity Y/Y: % v 8.1% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 18.2% prior - 23:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Cash Target unchanged at 4.50% - (JP) BOJ to Release October 4-5th Board Meetings Minutes
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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