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Tuesday November 2, 2010 - 10:04:05 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Australian Surprise


The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis

Australian Surprise

10:00 GMT ( Nov 2- There already have been two headline events today, The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly hiked its Cash Rate target by 25bps to 4.75% and the flash October EZ manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.6 from 54.1. Yesterday saw better than expected manufacturing PMIs from the U.S., U.K., China and Australia. The PMI data are worth following as a reliable leading economic indicator.

Major U.S. elections are under way today.  Odds favor a change in the balance of power in the U.S. Pundits are expecting the Presidents party to lose control of the House of Representatives and to lose its veto-proof majority in  the Senate. Presumably a move to the center should be a USD positive. 

Following the election results, the FOMC is seen announcing additional quantitative Ease (QE2) on Wednesday . It is thought that Fed President Bernanke spoke through the WSJ last Wednesday as he tried to diminish expectations for an aggressive QE2 program. Expectations at one time were that QE2 would drive the yield on the 10-yr note down to 2.00% but it has been rising over the past two weeks

The USD is trading broadly softer as it appears that the risk trade is being put on this new week. Japan remains a focus after the Bank of Japan also moved forward its next policy meeting to November 4/5 from mid-November. Additional Japanese QE is expected as well. This will be immediately after the FOMC decision. October U.S. non-farm payroll data are due on Friday.


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: North America: U.S.- Core PCE, Personal Income, Construction Spending and Mfg PMI.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads



Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:13
EUR 1.3972 91 JPY 112.66 80 JPY 129.60 43
GBP 1.6074 43 GBP 86.92 33 CHF 158.36 -83
CHF 0.9852 -78 CHF 1.3765 -19 CHF vs.    
JPY 80.63 5       JPY 81.84 69

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         9:13
CAD 1.0096 -63 AUD 0.9996 139 Gold 1358 7.63
CNY 6.6827 -63 NZD 0.7679 22 WTI 83.32 0.61


Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 


Equities           9:13
NIK 9160 5 DAX 6607 2 DJIA 11125 17
HSI 23671 18 FTSE 5715 20 S&P 1184 2
SSEC 3045 -9 SMI 6508 0 NAS 2505 3
ASX 4701 3       TSE 12665 4

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
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A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales

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