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Tuesday November 2, 2010 - 15:13:13 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Tuesday, November 02, 2010 11:08:06 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +70 S&P +8 NASDAQ +19

***Economic Data***
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Oct 30th: +0.1% w/w; +2.0% y/y
- (IR) Ireland Oct Consumer Confidence: 48.1 v 52.4 prior
- (SI) Singapore Oct Purchasing Managers Index: 50.7 v 49.3e; Electronics Sector Index: v 48.2e v 48.5 prior
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 30th: 2.6% y/y; MTD: 0.2% v Sept

***Fixed Income***
- (AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) to sell up to €1.1B in July 3.5% 2015 and July 3.9% 2020 RAGB bonds on Tuesday, Nov 9th
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold approx €2.9B in 3-month and 6-month Bills vs. €2.8B indicated
- (HU) Hungary sold HUF40B in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 5.24% v 5.25% prior
- (UK) DMO sold £4.0B in New 2% 2016 Gilts; avg yield 1.958%; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x
- (FI) Finland sold total €1.5 in 3.375% 2020 and 4% 2025 Bonds vs. €1.5B indicated
- (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sold total € vs €8.0B Targeted in 13-week, 20-week, 24-week and 50-week Bills
- Sold € in 13-week Bills, avg yield % v 0.365% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.93x prior

- Equities are well bid this morning as investors plunge into risky assets ahead of the FOMC meeting and the midterm elections. The Dow and S&P are trading just below the late Oct multi-month highs. The dollar is at the weaker end of its recent ranges this morning, with EUR/USD once again testing above the 1.40 level. Crude is not far from two-week highs, with the front-month contract just shy of $84. US Treasury prices are firmer with the benchmark 10-year yield is holding just above 2.6%.

- Shares of MasterCard are up 3% after the company's profit beat expectations by a wide margin. The firm showed healthy growth in its operational metrics, emphasizing that its international growth was driving the business. Shares of AXP and V are both up on MA's decent results. Mortgage insurer Radian Group reported a quarterly profit after a year of losses, sending shares of
RDN up 10%. Note that the company's outperformance was based on a gain from the change in the market value of derivatives. Both MTG and PMI are up on the news.

- Pharma names Pfizer and Teva both gained in the pre-market after modestly exceeding earnings expectations in third quarter results. However, both have traded down sharply right from the opening bell. Note that Pfizer trimmed its full-year revenue guidance, while Teva reiterated its full year view. Third quarter results from drug distributor Amerisource Bergen were slightly above par, and their 2011 outlook was slightly above its prior forecast. Shares of ABC are down nearly 2%.

- Big ag name ADM is getting plowed under after missing earnings expectations by a very wide margin. The firm warned that while profit in its oilseeds and agricultural services business increased, other businesses posted a loss due to certain insurance loss provisions. In addition, the firm's margins fell sharply. Dow Chemical, which just reported quarterly results last week, reaffirmed some long term guidance in a press release out this morning, sending shares of DOW up a few percent.

- Oil and gas names Anadarko and
Marathon have reported quarterly results. Including hedging for possible losses connected with the BP oil spill, Anadarko lost money in the quarter, although on an adjusted basis the firm was profitable (but missed expectations). On the conference call, executives said 2011 production would be well above 2010 levels, helping to pull shares of APC out of negative territory. Marathon beat top- and bottom-line expectations. MRO is still down 4%.

- In tech, third quarter results from MEMC Electronic Materials were sub par and the firm suspended its 2010 guidance, related to profit recognition issues. Shares of
WFR are down 5%. Oracle is up slightly after announcing that it would acquire e-commerce service provider Art Technology Group for around $1B in cash. Dell is off a few percent after reports made the rounds that the CEO would announce an acquisition later today on the cloud computing front.

Sterling weakened in early New York trading after dealers commented that the Bundesbank might have been active in buying EUR/GBP. Safe haven flows were also evident in the NY morning after reports of an explosion occurred at the Swiss embassy in Athens and Greek police conducted controlled explosion of parcel at Bulgarian Embassy. The dollar remained within established ranges.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (IT) Italy Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -18.9% prior
- 15:00 (IT) Italy Oct Budget Balance: No est v -€ 12.7B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -€64.5B prior
- 16:30 (US) API Weekly Energy Inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 31st: No est v -47 prior
- 20:01 (UK) Oct BRC Shop Price Index
- 21:00 (CH) China Oct Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 61.7 prior


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