Wednesday November 3, 2010 - 03:39:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 03-Nov-2010 -0336 GMT
Good day for the Dow (11188.72, +64.10) yesterday. The Nasdaq (2533.52, +28.68), which has been doing better than the Dow, is close to highs last seen in Apr-10 and Jun-08. Overall, the Dow looks likely to move up towards 11750-12000 over the coming weeks.
All Asian indices are in the green, except for Taiwan, which is down marginally. The Hang Seng (24095, +1.77%) is doing rather well. The Shanghai (3051) might need to consolidate sideways for some time, after having moved up very well ealier in October. The Sensex (20345.69) might move up a bit today, but the real movement would be tomorrow, after the FOMC. The outlook is bullish/ mildly bullish at the moment.
Crude (83.90) has risen further and is now trading near the upper end of the range (79.50-84.50) in which it has been trading over the last few weeks. Our bullish sentiment is intact and as we have been mentioning for sometime, a strong break above 85 might trigger fresh upmove towards 88-90 in the coming days/weeks.
Gold (1351.70) is ranged between 1350-1365 over the last couple of days ahead of the much awaited FOMC meet today. With strong Support in 1325-20 region, the broader outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 1400-25 in the coming days/weeks.
Dollar coming down, as expected, ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight. The Dollar Index (76.74) has seen a low of 76.64 today. Remember, long-term Support at 76.00 has still not been violated. Unless this Support breaks convincingly after the FOMC, there could be a danger of a sharp rebound in the Dollar, simply because that is least expected.
The Euro (1.4016), Dollar-Yen (80.65), Pound (1.6037), Swissy (0.98) and Aussie (0.9976) are all likely to go into hibernation for the rest of the day. They may wake up only after the FOMC.
In Asia, the Sing Dollar (1.2885) and the Korean Won (1112.70) have strengthened further. In fact, the Sing Dollar is the strongest it has ever been. Looking at the ADXY also, the Asian currencies do not seem to be giving up their gains. The Brazilian Real (1.7010), in the meanwhile, is holding onto its losses. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 44.37/38 yesterday and might dip further towards 44.30 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yield was flat at 0.34% while the 10Y yield was down 4bps to quote at 2.59%.
Yesterday, the RBA surprised the market with a 25 bps rate hike as it increased the rates to 4.75% from 4.50%.
In India, the RBI increased the Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 25 bps as expected to 6.25% and 5.25% and the left the CRR unchanged at 6.00%.
12:15 GMT US ADP Emp
...Expected 22K...Previous -39K
18:15 GMT US FOMC Interest Rate
...Expected <0.25%...Previous <0.25%
AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Actual 4.75%...Previous 4.50%
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 6.25%...Previous 6.00%
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 5.25%...Previous 5.00%
...Actual 6.00%...Previous 6.00%
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