European Market Update: Participants wait to cast their vote on the FOMC decision (TTN)
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
European Market Update: Participants wait to cast their vote on the FOMC decision
***Economic Data*** - (SP) Spain Oct Net Unemployment M/M: 68.2K v 82.8Ke - (TU) Turkey Oct Consumer Prices M/M: 1.8% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.0%e - (TU) Turkey Oct Producer Prices M/M: 1.2% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 9.9% v 8.9% prior - (EU) ECB: â‚¬4.9B borrowed in overnight loan facility v â‚¬459M prior; â‚¬33.5B parked in deposit facility v â‚¬28.1B prior - (SZ) Swiss Sept Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.8% v 0.1% prior - (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) cuts its key 7-day lending rate by 75bps to 5.50% - (NO) Norway Aug AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.4%e - (SP) Spain Oct Consumer Confidence: 67.1 v 72.8 prior - (UK) Oct PMI Services: 53.2 v 52.6e - (SA) South Africa Oct SACCI Business Confidence: 85.9 v 87.8 prior
Fixed Income: - No events
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Republicans score huge in the House but fall short of taking the Senate. Republicans also capture many Governor Seats as well - Australia's building approvals fall shy of expectations. - FOMC later today. Focus is not on rates but on QE - US jobs data over the next few days with ADP today, initial claims on Thurs and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday - UK PMI Services beats expectations - Peripheral spreads continue to widen; Irish/German 10-year gov't premium nearing 500bps
Equities: EuroStoxx at 2864, +0.13%, FTSE100 at 5760, +0.05%, CAC40 at 3878, +0.33%, DAX at 6668, +0.22%
- European shares fluctuated in the session opening higher after yesterday's 6-month high close. Banks were among the gainers which supported the rally. Major bourses have been drifting on and off in negative territory as markts remain muted ahead of Fed's meeting. - Societe Generale [GLE.FR] rose about 2% after announcing its Q3 results and noting that it would not need a capital raise to meet Basel III. Following the quarter's trend, investment banking revenues had decreased but all the other segments reported higher results on a yearly basis. - Despite good numbers and a reaffirmation of significant increase in earnings and revenues, BMW [BMW.GE] lost about 2% as investors were unsatisfied and were expecting more. Furthemore, BMW increased its forecast for automobile EBIT margin of above 7% from 5%/ This attitude from the markets is similar to Daimler's which also exceeded expectations but whose shares also declined. This may be an indication that investors are nervous over the 2011 economic outlook which auto names failed to provide. - Continental AG [CON.GE] did not help the auto sector this morning with a significant miss on its net earnings, citing raw material costs. Company noted that increase in raw material costs burdened Rubber Group with more than â‚¬450M. Shares fell about 3.7%. - World's largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] fell about 1.3% after reporting results in line with estimates. The volumes had increased driven by a strong growth in Brazil and Latin America. Norwegian oil name Statoil [STL.NO] beat expectations but cut its FY10 production. The equity production for the quarter was also down by 17%. Shares slipped by 4.6%.
Speakers: - German VCI chemical assoc reaffirmd 2010 forecasts but noted that the pace of growth was weakening. It continued to forecast that 20100 German Chemical Production: +11% y/y; Chemical Sales: +18% y/y
Currencies: - The price action for the most part in Europe was muted as dealers awaited the FOMC announcement later today. The EUR/USD continued to find resistance towards the 1.4060 area and lingered near the upper end of it range throughout the morning. There has been market chatter of Far East sovereigns legging into Euro after bidding in numerous local currencies (KRW, IDR and SGD cited). Dealers continue to watch for any break of the three-week consolidation in the pair which that 1.4060 is the ceiling. - The GBP/USD was former aided by the stronger PMI services data. GBP/USD hit its best level since late Jan as it tested above the 1.6110 as the NY morning approached. - Peripheral spreads continue to widen in session with the Irish/German 10-yr Gov't bond premium widening by almost 10bps to record level above 490bps
Geopolitical - US Elections: - As expected, the Republicans won a majority in the House of Representatives, with the party being projected to have at least a 53 seat majority (Note: 218 votes are needed for a majority). Before the midterm elections, the Democrats controlled the House by a 255 to 178 margin, with two vacancies. Some of the key victories by the Republicans for the House came in South Carolina, Missouri, Texas and North Dakota. Overall, the Republicans fared better in the House than in 1994, when the Democrats lost 54 seats and the House will see the largest shift in power since the Democrats lost 75 seats in 1948. - In terms of the Senate, the Democrats maintained control of the body with 51 seats vs. 46 seats for the Republicans. Overall, the Republic party picked up at least 6 seats which were held by Democrats. In some of the key races, Republican Pat Toomey won in Pennsylvania, Republican Ron Johnson defeated Democrat Feingold in Wisconsin, while Republican Mark Kirk won President Obama's old seat in Illinois. As for the Democrats, Senator Majority Leader Reid defeated Sharron Angel in Nevada. Also, Democrat Joe Manchin won a Senate seat in West Virginia.
In the papers - In the Telegraph, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management issued a cautious note on Gilts. The article noted that risks for the Gilt market include rising inflation, higher interest rates and the end of quantitative easing (QE). - Fathom Consulting believes that the UK government should launch a 'bad bank' for distressed mortgages. According to the Telegraph, the consulting firm sees the purchases should be conducted through a second round of quantitative easing (QE). Banks would be short Â£20 billion if they recognized their bad mortgage assets today and this figure could rise to Â£180 billion if property prices declined by another 20% between now and 2012.
***Looking Ahead *** - 6:00 (MA) Malaysia Sept Trade Balance (MYR): 8.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 10.1%e; Imports Y/Y: 16.3%e - 6:15 (GE) Germany to Sell Add'l â‚¬5.0B in 5-year BOBLs - 6:30 (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell up to â‚¬1.0B in 3-Month and 12-month Bills - 7:00 (RU) Russia to Sell up to RUB14.5B in OFZ Bonds - 7:00 (IR) Ireland Oct Live Register Monthly Change: No est v 5.4K prior; Registry Level : No est v 449.6K prior - 7:00 (IR) Ireland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 13.7% prior - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 29th: No est v 3.2% prior - 7:30 (US) Oct Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 37.2K prior; Y/Y: No est v -44.1% prior - 8:15 (US) Oct ADP Employment Change: +20K v -39K prior - 9:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Trade Balance: No est v $1.1B prior - 9:00 (RU) Russia to Sell up to RUB10.0B in OFZ Bonds - 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.5e v 53.2 prior - 10:00 (US) Sept Factory Orders: 1.6%e v -0.5% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories: Crude: +1Me; Gasoline: -500Ke; Distillate: -1Me; Utilization: 83.9%e - 12:00 (MX) Mexico Oct IMEF Non Manufacturing Index: 52.3e v 52 prior; Manufacturing Index: 52.4e v 52.2 prior - 12:15 (SZ) SNB's Jordan speaks in Zurich - 14:15 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain rates at 0.25% level - 17:00 (US) Oct Domestic Vehicle Sales: 8.95Me v 8.82M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 11.8Me v 11.73M prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 26 Feb 2018 A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.