User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 3, 2010 - 13:46:07 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Thoughts on US Election (FXA)

Thoughts on US Election


Post mortems are never easy after major swings in elections like the one Tuesday in the US.  So it is quite easy for Republicans to explain the shift as largely ideological…a vote against the socialist European model (which is a much scaled down version that followed the turbulent 60’s in its current form) as practiced by Obama, Pelosi and Reid, and a vote for laissez-faire capitalism which exists nowhere.  It is equally easy for the Democrats to conclude that the election was all about unemployment and the party leadership failed in not spending enough on jobs.  Neither party wants to admit that what the vote was about utter frustration with Washington and partisan business as usual.  With an ample majority, the public quite reasonably threw out the party holding the reins of power.  This happened in 2006 in Congress and 2008 everywhere.  Democrats in Congress thought the public is more patience…two years was not enough time to fix the economy after its worst setback since the Great Depression.  Like Democrats in 2006 and 2008, the Republicans got to run against something, which is a huge advantage especially when the policies of the majority are short on factuals…and long on counterfactuals.   I would not be surprised if in 2 years the economy is not growing jobs in a meaningful way the Democrats will take back the House, the Republicans will win the Senate and Obama will be a one-term president.


Despite the celebratory swagger of the Republicans – deserved and to be expected (is Boehner that different from Pelosi?)– and the tone deafness of the Democrats (when ever has a political party in defeat ever conceded ideological ground much less policy priorities…rewind to 2006…did GW change course?), in short order Congress will realize it has to get down to the business of business and this involves finding common ground and growing jobs.


Fortunately or unfortunately the only true common ground is on trade policy (perceived as no or limited fiscal costs) that means pushing the US farther down the path of a trade war with China.  Rest assured ideology is out the window here and both parties can agree with the need to create jobs and this means exporting fewer to China despite the powerful lobbyists from Wal-Mart and many US manufacturers.  If anyone wants a good assessment of how the US trade relationship with China in the last 15 years has added to US structural unemployment in exchange for cheap consumer manufactured goods have a look at Paul Tudor Jones’ letter to investors from October.  This is the outline of the underpinnings of a much harder position on China and yuan appreciation.  It also ups the stakes of Congress instituting trade sanctions.  If China is the key to the rest of Asian currency appreciation, we should expect more spillover to the region…especially as QE2 assures a weak dollar ahead…look for capital controls to become the new currency intervention as foreign reserves have become too massive for even activist currency regimes in EM land.  The coming move toward less open world trade is surely a negative for equities, commodities and global growth and in time could see the inverse relationship between the dollar and stocks break down…both will be weak. 


I also think the election makes the Fed the water boy for stimulus…it will be in an ever larger role in supporting growth as fiscal policy stimulus option is shut off at least and even more likely contracts (extending the Bush tax cuts is ceteris paribus for fiscal policy…adding to the deficit).  I think the UK government experiment is worth watching for how the US might benefit (or cost) from immediate fiscal tightening…few question the concept many question the timing.  It is also clear that the election result will bring forward fiscal consolidation.  Keep in mind the President’s bipartisan commission (one he appointed because GOP members of the Senate blocked a bill that would have given the commission teeth) on deficit reduction reports back to the President by December 01.  My guess is the House and Senate Republican leadership will want to restart this effort with people they deem appropriate and will want austerity measures up front.  In other words the Fed keeps the printing presses running. 


Healthcare reform reform could be the mutually assured self-destruction of incumbents in the coming months…I would be very negative on gridlock if this is the first push by the House leadership in January.  There is no room for compromise on this issue (Romney-care co-opted by Obama and Democrats). 


I am also quite skeptical that the GOP supply side orientation has been shelved despite the overwhelming conclusions of any reasonable person on the planet…tax cuts do not pay for themselves…sold as such and with the unstated intent to starve government into action also has a long history of not working.  So any Republican or Democrat (black-and-blue dogs that hung on) who says the deficit ad debt can be cut without revenue and spending measures is selling snake oil.  VAT is the common ground of reasonable people but I think reason is still in short supply in Washington and elections and election money is where policy originates and is implemented for the most part.


Finally, I am pretty confident that most Americans are pragmatic and have a long history of rejecting ideologues.  This Tea Party is ideological and will have a heavy imprint on the GOP ahead.  I think this will be problematic.  The left wing of the Democratic Party may appear ideological but frankly someone show me…I don’t see it and this is why pragmatic voters (independents) swung so hard for the GOP…they did not have the results…they cut taxes for the middle class (40% of the near $800bln stimulus and the largest single category) which no one even knew they got (in withholdings in paychecks) and funneled lots of money to state and local governments to maintain services and employment…which GOP exploited as catering to the public workers’ unions…(would be surprised to see how GOP ideologues lined up for these transfers).  If in 2 years the economy is roughly where it is today, pragmatism prevails and we can expect another wave of change…indeed would fit with 2006, 2008 and 2010)…the public is impatient and Washington appears to be fiddling while the nation burns.


Again from my window in rural Connecticut all I see is Japan


David Gilmore




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105