User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 3, 2010 - 16:13:02 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

A Second Guess.

The fun has begun and fiscal conservatives have taken back control of the US House. The rally in US stocks over the last couple months has been credited in part to this expectation that a shift in power within the US House of Representatives will help ease the burden of potential taxes and regulations that have heretofore been among the biggest reasons corporations have held back from hiring and investing.

Sounds good for the economy, right?

But almost as quickly as the Democrats fell from favor, commentators are now expecting a gridlock between the US House and Senate will be a disaster for the US economy. We’re in the middle of a balance sheet recession, and it’s said consumers sure won’t be able to take up the slack when government spending gets thrown back; financial support for the economy will go the way of Democrat congressmen.

Sounds bad for stocks, right?

But there have been some small and scattered bright spots in some economic numbers (manufacturing activity, jobs numbers, etc.)  all while we continue to be dumbfounded by the fact that stocks haven’t already turned over based upon reality over QE2’s certain lack of effectiveness setting in. It’s almost as if investors really want to test the Federal Reserve’s bailout threshold before they admit there’s no solid reason to be buying stocks at these levels, in this economy.

Although, maybe the Federal Reserve action (rather than Federal Reserve effectiveness) is a solid enough reason ... as it is widely believe that wealth effect from a juiced stock market can help along a struggling economy.

But still – has it been too far too fast for stocks?

Here’s an excerpt from Pragmatic Capitalism’s blog trying to sift through the psychology behind market tops and bottoms:

The beauty of mean reversion is its simplicity.  If we take a graphical look at the current environment we can visualize the imbalance that occurs in a market.  Market peaks and troughs tend to occur when a market enters a state of disequilibrium with its underlying fundamentals.  This can be due to a number of varying factors, but psychology tends to be the primary driver.  I often say that it is always brightest at the top.  The current environment is not only displaying excessive bullishness, but the general equity mentality has become one of extreme complacency.  You either think the Fed is going to push the market higher or you think the economy is on the path to recovery.  As Tepper said, it’s a “win win”.  The problem with a market and its mean reverting nature is that investors place their bets before the cards are dealt.  This is why markets always peak on good news and bottom on bad news.

So now Quantitative Easing Part Deux becomes all the more important. Despite the fact that it will not substantially change a single thing it is meant to change, there is still a lot of hope riding on the fact that maybe it’ll somehow be there to fall back on when fiscal spending disappears. If it is, then maybe a bull market will be there to fall back on too.
So ... as we look at everything under one giant microscope, it seems obvious to us that stocks are outpacing their fundamentals, QE2 expectations have more than overshot their merit, and the absence of risk has the potential to rear its ugly head in a big way. And that’s why we think it makes sense to buy stocks, sell the dollar, and pretty much go long on risk appetite.

Sounds perverse, we know. But after all, our analysis amounts to a big fat negative while price action tells us we’re fat wrong. Maybe we’re missing something here, but we might as well not fight it ... because the Federal Reserve probably can’t afford doing anything that would jeopardize the stock market ... even though they have absolutely no problem putting the US dollar at risk under the guise of a boost from exports.  If we get some fiscal conservatism in Washington, it means the burden of stimulus is squarely on the back of monetary policy. 

That gives the Fed seemingly two outlets today:

1) Be aggressive with plans to implement QE2 and keep alive the notion that the Fed works to keep the markets well supported a la higher asset prices help consumer confidence through the magic of the wealth effect.

2) Be somewhat reserved with plans to implement QE2 and talk up the more optimistic points of the economic recovery so as to keep alive the notion that the outlook for stocks is positive as far as the eye can see.

We will find out soon—maybe!


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105