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Thursday November 4, 2010 - 03:42:33 GMT
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Stocks Could Move Higher; Gold Indicates Uncertainty

The rebound in the U.S. equity markets indicates that stocks are poised to move higher. Although the Fed told us nothing that wasn’t already built into the market, the fact that more liquidity was made available shouldn’t hurt equity prices. Stocks could also benefit from an improving economy especially if Friday’s U.S. employment data comes out better than expected.


Technically the indices appear to be in breakout mode, but we have watched this pattern for several weeks. The problem is investors don’t seem willing to chase it higher, so this makes it vulnerable to short-term corrections. Investors aren’t fools. They know we are at lofty price levels and the economy is teetering between recovery and recession so they still want to get value for their buck.


The Gold market is forming an interesting pattern. The weaker close could be indicating that perhaps a bearish assessment for the Dollar is not in the cards. Like I say in my comment about the Dollar, the conditions are ripe for a bottom except a support base hasn’t been built. Gold is saying, not so fast. I believe the Fed’s low inflation assessment is keeping the bulls on the sidelines, but at the slightest hint of inflation, I think they will be ready to strike.


So while it appears the Gold bulls have given the current round to the Fed, they will be waiting for any stumble in the economy. Gold traders will also be watching the Greenback. If a support base is being built or the Dollar makes a closing price reversal bottom then continue to look for Gold to weaken.


Sure there was volatility, but everyone expected that but for the most part, the Fed’s policy statement announcement in my opinion was a non-event. Technically, shortly after the news was released, the Dollar Index plunged to a new low, but the quick rebound to almost unchanged for the day indicates to me that the move was most likely triggered by thin trading conditions.


Although the rebound did not produce a closing price reversal bottom, it did come close, indicating that perhaps the shorts have run out of gas or there are buyers out there. Spike moves are usually not good indicators or major bottoms unless there is follow-through to the upside. This makes Thursday an important day.


The U.S. Dollar may have hit support on Wednesday, but a spike bottom is not a good sign of a major bottom. The Greenback needs to form a support base because my technical works says that the height of the rally is determined by the length of the base. Without good structure rallies are likely to fail. This being said, continue to look for weakness in the Dollar until it can establish a support base.


One other clue suggesting a possible bottom will be taking out the last swing top on the daily chart at 78.51. Or better yet, the previous main top at 78.61. Unless this market starts taking out shorts to attract the buyers, continue to look for lower prices.


Another key indicator of a possible major bottom will be a weekly closing price reversal. All the components are in place for a reversal. We have a prolonged move down in terms of price and time. Now all we need is a higher close, close above the week’s opening and a close above 50% of the week’s range. Last week’s close was 77.46. Watch for the bears to defend this area if tested, but don’t get excited about the long side until the bulls can regain this price.




The Fed said it would buy up to an additional $600 billion in long-term Treasury bonds until the end of June 2011 as part of its quantitative easing strategy to support a sustained economic recovery. Read additional details on QE2

“The Fed’s statement and action is largely in line with expectations, and although it is hard to call this anti-climatic, the initial price action has been largely reversed,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, in emailed comments.

“The Fed’s focus still seems to be on inflation moving in the wrong direction and this is what investors will have to monitor,” he said.


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