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Thursday November 4, 2010 - 03:50:44 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 04-Nov-2010 -0340 GMT


Coming to trade this morning We get a sense a of Deja-Vu. In our FX thoughts yesterday we highlighted some interesting similarity to September 18,2007 FED meeting, when the market was clamouring for a first rate cut from FED. POst Fed rate cut, dollar saw a drubbing of 4-5% within 10 days. Though the issues at hand now are different but the sentiment backdrop has a lot of similarity.

Fed announced a USD 600B purchase plan of treasuries, mostly confined to the 4-10 year maturities. This is over and above the $250-300 billion asset purchase to be done from the re-investment of the repayment proceeds from ABS and MBS. Therefore all in all a $850-900 billion buy order to be placed under the treasury prices. Going by the details of the asset re-purchase plan, most of the purchases of treasuries will be confined to the 4-10 year maturites. This in our opinion can have its shares of good and bad consequences. The rates on the mortgage markets are benchmarked to long end of the curve, so a slim support from FED might not be enough to keep the rates capped, especially when there is strong indications for market yields to move higher. At the same time having a steeper yield curve can help the banks to earn a postive carry on their funds and hence shore up their balance sheet and also encourage lending.

US markets have closed flat with a 0.2-0.3% gains, Dow shut shop at 11,215 (up 0.24%). Trend remains up for the Dow as long as it can stay clear of 11,000 support. Resistance will be on offer around 11,300, a close above 11,300 can open a target for 11,700.
Asian markets are trading in the green, with Nikkei surging by over 2% , now at 9359, Hangseng up by 1% to 24,388 and Shanghai up 0.73% to 3198. Yesterday Nifty shut shop at 6160.50 (up 0.68%). Coal India IPO makes its debut on the bourses today.As long as 6130-50 support holds Nifty we are looking for Nifty to aim for 6300.

Crude (85.24) has risen past the upside of the range (79.50-84.50) as expected and is now trading above 85 thereby keeping up our bullish sentiment intact for a rise towards 88-90 in the coming days. Though the EIA's data showed an unexpected increase in the US Crude inventories, better than expected fall in the gasoline stocks and Fed's QE2 announcement supported the price rise yesterday.

Gold (1355.90) fell sharply yesterday breaking below 1350. However, the significant Support at 1320 is still holding and it has bounced back once again above 1350 from the low of 1325.50. While above 1320 the outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 1400-20. On the downside 1280 is the next signficant Support seen below 1320.

A bit of a mixed bag for the Dollar after the FOMC last night, with a bearish bias. The Dollar Index (76.41) saw a low of 76.22, but does not seem to be in an imminent danger of breaking below 76.00. It is to be seen now whether the Dollar Index is able to build a bottom for itself, above 76.00, over the next couple of weeks, or not.

The Euro (1.4126) had risen to 1.4191 after the Fed news but is trading a little lower. It may try to grind higher towards 1.42-43 in the coming days, but the pace might be slow. Dollar-Yen (80.93) had risen to a high of 81.58 yesterday but has come off from there. Crucial Support at 80.70 and 80.24 need to be watched now. If they hold, Dollar-Yen may move up in the longer term.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9735) has seen a good fall over the last couple of days, after having risen over the last couple of weeks. Good Support should be available between current levels and 0.9650. The Pound (1.6124) has been consolidating its gains from last week and could be headed higher towards 1.6250. The Aussie (1.0060) is trading at its highest level ever now, and might be good for a further 100-150 pip rise.

Emerging market currencies have soared. Dollar-Won trades at 1100.80 and might try to test the previous low near 1090.40. USD-SGD trades further lower, at 1.2844. The Brazilian Real has strengthened to 1.6895, from 1.7030 day before yesterday. The country had a holiday yesterday.

Dollar-Rupee may dip towards 44.25-00 today.

The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 1 bps and 4 bps each to quote at 0.33% 2.55%.

Yesterday, the Fed announced that it will buy $600 billion more in government bonds by the middle of next year and left the rates unchanged at <0.25%.

The BOE and ECB meet on interest rate decision is due today.

The BOJ meeting is due tomorrow (05-Nov-10)

...Actual 43K...Previous -2K

US FOMC Interest Rate
...Actual <0.25%...Previous <0.25%



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