European Market Update: Upcoming Greek weekend local elections provides pause to recent trends (TTN)
Friday, November 05, 2010
European Market Update: Upcoming Greek weekend local elections provides pause to recent trends
***Economic Data*** - (FI) Finland Aug GDP Indicator: 4.9% v 4.2% prior - (HU) Hungary Sept Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: 0.5% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 10.9% v 10.4%e - (SP) Spain Sept Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.7%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -0.8% v 3.4% prior - (TT) Taiwan Oct CPI Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.3%e; WPI Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.3%e - (AS) Austria Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.1% - (DE) Denmark Sept Industrial Production M/M: +2.4% v -6.6% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -27.3% v 21.0% prior - (SW) Sweden Oct Budget Balance (SEK): -16.6B v -15.4B prior - (IC) Iceland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 10.0B v 10.6B prior - (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production Manufacturing: M/M: 1.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 1.7%e - (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production: M/M: +1.8% v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: -10.9% v -13.0% prior - (UK) Oct PPI Input M/M: 2.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 8.0% v 7.3%e - (UK) Oct PPI Output M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.4%e - (UK) Oct PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 4.4%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Post launch of QE2 saw equities hit 2010 highs in Europe and new two year highs in most commodities; Silver hits 30 yr high and Gold at all-time highs. - US Tsy Sec Geithner's credibility undermined after recent strong USD remarks - Post QE2 move unleashes currency concerns - France President Sarkozy meets China President Hu in Paris. Finance Min Lagarde believes Euro will bear the burnt of the Fed's move - BoJ: Maintains its asset purchase fund unchanged at Â¥5T - UK's HSBC says Q3 'well ahead' of year-ago levels - Weekend local elections in Greece brings back the peripheral concerns into other asset classes - US payroll data the highlight of the NY morning
Equities: EuroStoxx at 2874, -0.4%, FTSE100 at 5853, -0.2%, CAC40 at 3912, -0.1%, DAX at 6,733, flat
- European shares opened higher sustaining the 6-month rally after Fed's announced QE2 in the week. However, some indices drifted into negative territory as investors take profits ahead of the US employment data due in the NY morning. Out of continental Europe, French cement maker Lafarge [LG.FR] reported in line with estimates and net was slightly higher. Company maintained its forecast for cement demand to be in the range of -1% to 3%. Results and the unchanged outlook disappointed markets and shares opened down by 2.7%. - As UK earnings gain momentum, names such as Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, Carphone Warehouse and Smith & Nephew reported earnings or provided trading update. RBS [RBS.UK] reported an operating profit of Â£762M up from a loss of Â£1.04B last year. The profit excluded a charge related to the Asset Protection Scheme and the bank had a reported loss of Â£1.15B which had nonetheless narrowed from last year's loss of Â£2.1B. Bank cited the lower impairments during the quarter which had declined by 21%. Bank noted that Q4 would remain challenging. HSBC [HSBA.UK] gave a rather qualitative update for its Q3. HSBC noted that Q3 was well ahead of expectations and its last year level. Credit metrics had improved as loan impairment charges reaching their lowest level since early 2007. Lending was also ahead of levels but muted demand for credit remained pronounced in developed economies. Smith & Nephew [SN.UK] advanced 4.7% after reporting an increase in both net and revenues and affirming guidance. Carphone Warehouse [CPW.UK] reported an increase in both net and revenues and raised its EPS outlook to 13.5p-14.0p from 11.5-11.9 previously. Shares rallied 5.6%
Speakers: - China PBoC Gov Zhou commented that currencies were an important part of rebalancing, but only one factor of the solution. He added that China could understand the reasons the Fed was implementing more monetary easing in order to stimulate the US economic recovery. He cautioned that US QE2 measures might not be a good policy for the global economy as it might have spillover effects. The gap between the US and China interest rates provided opportunity for speculation. More money was expected to flow into China and the country needed measures to cope with such inflows - BOJ Gov Shirakawa commented at the post BOJ rate decision press conference that the Fed's latest easing measures did not immediately remove economic uncertainty in the US nor that the QE2 measures were a form of debt monetization. Any policy action had both benefits and costs and the BOJ would watch effects and side-effects of asset buying. He did concede that a major economy easing to have impact on FX and commodity markets. Overall he stated that Japan's economic risks were evenly balanced but the overseas slowdown was behind Japan's lull in its economic recovery. Lastly he did not believe that emerging markets were experiencing a price bubble at this time. - ECB's Nowotny commented that the ECB and Fed were drifting apart regarding their respective monetary policies - German Fin Min Schaeble observed that unity was necessary to overcome the recent financial crisis and called upon a closer cooperation between G7 and BRIC nations. He stated that the Fed's QE2 measures had same effect as China's currency and the Fed's easing would not solve the US economic problems. He added that such action appears that the US was 'helpless' in the face of its trouble - Asia Development Bank (ADB) chief Kuroda commented that structural reforms were the key to fixing global imbalances and expected APEC to discuss competitive FX devaluations. China's current account balance could be gradually redressed and that a more flexible yuan currency was desirable. Capital controls were acceptable as a short-term measure and there was room to debate if the proposed US target of 4% C/A to GDP ratio was feasible. - The Bank of Spain stated that the country's Spain Q3 GDP Q/Q was seen flat v 0.2% prior while the Y/Y was seen +0.2% versus final Q2 reading of -0.1%
Currencies: Overall the Fed's stimulus measures appeared to make carry trades more attractive but the IMF noted this might raise capital flows to emerging economies and thus weaken the USD. China Vice Min Cui commented that the US owed an explanation for policy that amounts to indirect manipulation of the greenback. FX markets signaled that the credibility of US Tsy Sec Geithner is under question with the launch of QE2. - However the EUR/USD drifted back below the 1.42 level and nesr the prior Oct highs of 1.4170 area as dealers reassessed the risk over uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Greek local elections. The Greek PM Papandreou commented that in late Oct that he would not rule out that he could call early general elections if his party was weakened in upcoming Nov 7th local polls. The peripheral spreads (which have been widening all week) finally affected other types of assets.
Geopolitical/In the papers: - The Financial Times reported that Russia's sovereign wealth funds removed Ireland and Spain from the list of countries in which the funds can invest in an attempt to lower portfolio risk. Countries in which the funds can still invest include Austria, Belgium, UK, Germany, Denmark, Canada, Luxembourg, Netherlands, USA, Finland, France and Sweden. - Some members of Ireland's opposition parties have doubts regarding the government's proposed spending cuts. Note the government delayed publication of its four-year plan to later this month. Yesterday, the government did forecast the 2011 budget deficit at 9.25-9.50% of GDP against the 11.9% expected for 2010, with the 2011 budget cuts at â‚¬6 billion. Though no specifics were made, the government did mention that the ratio of spending cuts to tax increases are at 3-1.
***Looking Ahead *** - (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -19.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 14.7% prior - 6:00 (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 0.6% prior - 6:30 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel - 7:00 (GE) Sept Factory Orders M/M: 0.4%e 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 19.0%e v 20.3% prior - 7:00 (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v -6.6K prior; Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.0% prior - 7:30 (CL) Sept Economic Activity Y/Y 6.4%e v 7.6% prior - 7:30 (GE) German Gov't briefing on G20 goals - 8:15 (US) Fed's Lockhart - 8:30 (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +60Ke v -95K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +80Ke v +64K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +5Ke v -6K prior - 8:30 (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Oct Average Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.2e v 34.2 prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Building Permits M/M: +2.5%e v -9.2% prior - 8:30 (US) Fed's Plosser Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia - 8:30 (EU) ECB member Costa - 9:30 (US) Fed's Hoenig Speaks to Realtors Convention in New Orleans - 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 3.0%e v 4.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v -18.4% prior - 11:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Confidence: 89.4e v 91.6 prior - 11:15 (US) Fed's Fisher Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia - 13:20 (US) Fed's Bullard Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia - 14:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Speaks with College Students in Florida - 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: -$3.0Be v -$3.3B prior - 16:15 (US) Fed's Lacker Moderates Panel - 20:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.