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Friday November 5, 2010 - 09:54:15 GMT
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European Market Update: Upcoming Greek weekend local elections provides pause to recent trends (TTN)

Friday, November 05, 2010 5:48:23 AM

 European Market Update: Upcoming Greek weekend local elections provides pause to recent trends


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Aug GDP Indicator: 4.9% v 4.2% prior
- (HU) Hungary Sept Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: 0.5% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 10.9% v 10.4%e
- (SP) Spain Sept Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.7%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -0.8% v 3.4% prior
- (TT) Taiwan Oct CPI Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.3%e; WPI Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.3%e
- (AS) Austria Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.1%
- (DE) Denmark Sept Industrial Production M/M: +2.4% v -6.6% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -27.3% v 21.0% prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct Budget Balance (SEK): -16.6B v -15.4B prior
- (IC) Iceland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 10.0B v 10.6B prior
- (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production Manufacturing: M/M: 1.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 1.7%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production: M/M: +1.8% v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: -10.9% v -13.0% prior
- (UK) Oct PPI Input M/M: 2.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 8.0% v 7.3%e
- (UK) Oct PPI Output M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.4%e
- (UK) Oct PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 4.4%e

- Post launch of QE2 saw equities hit 2010 highs in Europe and new two year highs in most commodities; Silver hits 30 yr high and Gold at all-time highs.
- US Tsy Sec Geithner's credibility undermined after recent strong USD remarks
- Post QE2 move unleashes currency concerns
- France President Sarkozy meets China President Hu in Paris. Finance Min Lagarde believes Euro will bear the burnt of the Fed's move
- BoJ: Maintains its asset purchase fund unchanged at ¥5T
- UK's HSBC says Q3 'well ahead' of year-ago levels
- Weekend local elections in Greece brings back the peripheral concerns into other asset classes
- US payroll data the highlight of the NY morning

EuroStoxx at 2874, -0.4%, FTSE100 at 5853, -0.2%, CAC40 at 3912, -0.1%, DAX at 6,733, flat

- European shares opened higher sustaining the 6-month rally after Fed's announced QE2 in the week. However, some indices drifted into negative territory as investors take profits ahead of the
US employment data due in the NY morning.
Out of continental
Europe, French cement maker Lafarge [LG.FR] reported in line with estimates and net was slightly higher. Company maintained its forecast for cement demand to be in the range of -1% to 3%. Results and the unchanged outlook disappointed markets and shares opened down by 2.7%.
- As
UK earnings gain momentum, names such as Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, Carphone Warehouse and Smith & Nephew reported earnings or provided trading update. RBS [RBS.UK] reported an operating profit of £762M up from a loss of £1.04B last year. The profit excluded a charge related to the Asset Protection Scheme and the bank had a reported loss of £1.15B which had nonetheless narrowed from last year's loss of £2.1B. Bank cited the lower impairments during the quarter which had declined by 21%. Bank noted that Q4 would remain challenging. HSBC [HSBA.UK] gave a rather qualitative update for its Q3. HSBC noted that Q3 was well ahead of expectations and its last year level. Credit metrics had improved as loan impairment charges reaching their lowest level since early 2007. Lending was also ahead of levels but muted demand for credit remained pronounced in developed economies. Smith & Nephew [SN.UK] advanced 4.7% after reporting an increase in both net and revenues and affirming guidance. Carphone Warehouse [CPW.UK] reported an increase in both net and revenues and raised its EPS outlook to 13.5p-14.0p from 11.5-11.9 previously. Shares rallied 5.6%

China PBoC Gov Zhou commented that currencies were an important part of rebalancing, but only one factor of the solution. He added that China could understand the reasons the Fed was implementing more monetary easing in order to stimulate the US economic recovery. He cautioned that US QE2 measures might not be a good policy for the global economy as it might have spillover effects. The gap between the US and China interest rates provided opportunity for speculation. More money was expected to flow into China and the country needed measures to cope with such inflows
- BOJ Gov Shirakawa commented at the post BOJ rate decision press conference that the Fed's latest easing measures did not immediately remove economic uncertainty in the US nor that the QE2 measures were a form of debt monetization. Any policy action had both benefits and costs and the BOJ would watch effects and side-effects of asset buying. He did concede that a major economy easing to have impact on FX and commodity markets. Overall he stated that
Japan's economic risks were evenly balanced but the overseas slowdown was behind Japan's lull in its economic recovery. Lastly he did not believe that emerging markets were experiencing a price bubble at this time.
- ECB's Nowotny commented that the ECB and Fed were drifting apart regarding their respective monetary policies
- German Fin Min Schaeble observed that unity was necessary to overcome the recent financial crisis and called upon a closer cooperation between G7 and BRIC nations. He stated that the Fed's QE2 measures had same effect as
China's currency and the Fed's easing would not solve the US economic problems. He added that such action appears that the US was 'helpless' in the face of its trouble
- Asia Development Bank (ADB) chief Kuroda commented that structural reforms were the key to fixing global imbalances and expected APEC to discuss competitive FX devaluations.
China's current account balance could be gradually redressed and that a more flexible yuan currency was desirable. Capital controls were acceptable as a short-term measure and there was room to debate if the proposed US target of 4% C/A to GDP ratio was feasible.
- The Bank of Spain stated that the country's Spain Q3 GDP Q/Q was seen flat v 0.2% prior while the Y/Y was seen +0.2% versus final Q2 reading of -0.1%

Overall the Fed's stimulus measures appeared to make carry trades more attractive but the IMF noted this might raise capital flows to emerging economies and thus weaken the USD. China Vice Min Cui commented that the
US owed an explanation for policy that amounts to indirect manipulation of the greenback. FX markets signaled that the credibility of US Tsy Sec Geithner is under question with the launch of QE2.
- However the EUR/USD drifted back below the 1.42 level and nesr the prior Oct highs of 1.4170 area as dealers reassessed the risk over uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Greek local elections. The Greek PM Papandreou commented that in late Oct that he would not rule out that he could call early general elections if his party was weakened in upcoming Nov 7th local polls. The peripheral spreads (which have been widening all week) finally affected other types of assets.

Geopolitical/In the papers:
- The Financial Times reported that Russia's sovereign wealth funds removed Ireland and Spain from the list of countries in which the funds can invest in an attempt to lower portfolio risk. Countries in which the funds can still invest include
Austria, Belgium, UK, Germany, Denmark, Canada, Luxembourg, Netherlands, USA, Finland, France and Sweden.
- Some members of
Ireland's opposition parties have doubts regarding the government's proposed spending cuts. Note the government delayed publication of its four-year plan to later this month. Yesterday, the government did forecast the 2011 budget deficit at 9.25-9.50% of GDP against the 11.9% expected for 2010, with the 2011 budget cuts at €6 billion. Though no specifics were made, the government did mention that the ratio of spending cuts to tax increases are at 3-1.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -19.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 14.7% prior
- 6:00 (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 6:30 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 7:00 (GE) Sept Factory Orders M/M: 0.4%e 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 19.0%e v 20.3% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v -6.6K prior; Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.0% prior
- 7:30 (CL) Sept Economic Activity Y/Y 6.4%e v 7.6% prior
- 7:30 (GE) German Gov't briefing on G20 goals
- 8:15 (US) Fed's Lockhart
- 8:30 (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +60Ke v -95K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +80Ke v +64K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +5Ke v -6K prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Average Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.2e v 34.2 prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Building Permits M/M: +2.5%e v -9.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Fed's Plosser Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia
- 8:30 (EU) ECB member Costa
- 9:30 (US) Fed's Hoenig Speaks to Realtors Convention in New Orleans
- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 3.0%e v 4.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v -18.4% prior
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Confidence: 89.4e v 91.6 prior
- 11:15 (US) Fed's Fisher Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia
- 13:20 (US) Fed's Bullard Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia
- 14:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Speaks with College Students in Florida
- 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: -$3.0Be v -$3.3B prior
- 16:15 (US) Fed's Lacker Moderates Panel
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior



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