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Friday November 5, 2010 - 15:42:31 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Friday, November 05, 2010 11:24:44 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +3.5 S&P +4.3 NASDAQ -0.5

***Economic Data***
- (PO) Portugal Sept Industrial Sales M/M: 19.9% v -18.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.4% v 15.3% prior
- (GE) Germany Sept Factory Orders M/M: -4.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 14.0% v 19.0%e
- (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +3.0K v +15.0Ke; Unemployment Rate 7.9% v 8.0%e
- (CL) Sept Economic Activity Y/Y 6.5% v 6.4%e
- (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +151K v +60Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +159K v +80Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -7K v +5Ke
- (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.6% v 9.6%e

- (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.25 v 0.2%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 v 34.2e
- (CA) Canada Sept Building Permits M/M: +15.3% v +2.5%e

- Investors are treating the October jobs report with a certain amount of caution this morning, pausing to consolidate gains after yesterday's big run up. On Thursday the DJIA gained 220 points, bringing the index to levels last seen before the mid-September 2008 meltdown. The headline October nonfarm payrolls number surprised everybody, showing their first gain since May, while revisions to the September and October data uncovered an additional 110K jobs were created. Key commentators have highlighted the fact that the duration of joblessness among the unemployed is going in the wrong direction and are suggesting a wait-and-see for the November results to see if the overall unemployment rate will budge from 9.6%. On the QE2 front, more negative reviews rolled in from
Asia and Europe overnight. BOJ Gov Shirakawa warned the effort does not immediately remove economic uncertainty in the US. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said QE2 will have the same effect as China's currency manipulation and called the measures "clueless." Fed dissident Hoenig accused the Fed of monetizing the debt. Crude is near yesterday's highs, at $86. Gold tested fresh all-time highs again this morning, around $1,398. The US long bond yield climbed to the highest level since June following the payrolls figures and prices remain lower across the curve but off their worst levels.

- AIG continues to lose very large amounts of money on a quarterly basis. The government ward's third quarter loss was $2.4B, driven by pre-tax losses racked up on the sale of American General Finance and its Japanese life insurance businesses. AIG said it is on track with a recapitalization plan and would still be able to repurchase the Treasury's stake in the firm early next year. Elsewhere in the financial sector, it's worth noting that JP Morgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are all up around 8% since the Fed launched QE2. Goldman Sachs is up about 5% over the same period. Shares of the big banks are being helped by word from the Fed that it will shortly announce plans for allowing them to raise their dividends.

- Starbucks and Kraft reported quarterly results and also ended a key retail coffee distribution agreement. In its fourth quarter, Starbucks beat earnings estimates, reported impressive 8% comp store growth and raised its 2010 outlook. Kraft's Q3 results were more or less in line with Street estimates. Starbucks announced that it would end an arrangement whereby Kraft distributed its coffee to grocery stores. Kraft responded by warning Starbucks that the agreement requires it to pay Kraft the fair market value of the business and possible a premium. Shares of SBUX are up 4%, while KFT is down 2%.

- Share of CBS are down 2%, but off their worst levels. Profits at the media conglomerate were a bit better than expected, although revenue was soft and down a bit on a y/y basis. CBS broadcast advertising marketplace remains strong both nationally and locally, with robust pacing increases across the board. Activision Blizzard's Q3 earnings were very strong thanks to better-than-expected results among its key game franchises, although revenue was still a bit soft and the firm's guidance for Q4 was also subpar. Shares of
ATVI are down 3%. DISH Networks may have beat earnings targets, but its net subscriber losses are starting to steepen, frightening investors. Shares of DISH are around even.

- Among industrial names, engineering firm Fluor racked up a big quarterly loss thanks to some significant charges and named a new CEO. Auto parts manufacturer Magna crushed expectations, cranked up its dividend and announced a stock split. Quarterly results from refiner Tesoro were strong on a big gain in refining margins, although executives said high unemployment in
California continues to keep gasoline demand weak. TSO is up 3%. Shares of road freight name YRC Worldwide is down 10% after a big quarterly loss and a 12% y/y decline in total shipments. Beazer Homes also lost more than expected, and the firm's metrics looked shaky. BZH is up 4%.

- Nonfarm payrolls has helped the greenback capitalize on some earlier jitters from the European peripheral countries. EUR/USD tested 1.4035 at its lows while USD/JPY retested the pivotal 81.50 level but failed to break the post BOJ-FX intervention hourly downtrend line from Sept 15th. CAD recovered from its initial weakness after its tepid employment gains and focused on the better than expected Canadian Building Permits to retest parity.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Confidence: 89.4e v 91.6 prior
- 11:15 (US) Fed's Fisher Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia
- 12:30 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 3.0%e v 4.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5%e
- 13:20 (US) Fed's Bullard Moderates Panel at Jekyll Island, Georgia
- 14:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke Speaks with College Students in Florida
- 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: -$3.0Be v -$3.3B prior
- 16:15 (US) Fed's Lacker Moderates Panel
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior



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