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Saturday November 6, 2010 - 02:33:47 GMT
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U.S. Stocks End with Whimper after Eventful Week.

U.S. equity markets closed slightly higher after a spurt to the upside following a better than expected U.S. jobs report. Buying pressure died shortly after the major indices reached their highest levels in more than two years.


The financial markets took a breather after a volatile and eventful week. Traders seem to have exhausted themselves after a strong rally following a Republican election victory, fresh stimulus from the Fed and a better-than-expected jobs report. It didn’t look like there was a major seller in the markets on Friday, but it appeared that buyers may have grown tired of chasing the markets higher. This came after an eventful week helped support demand for equities.


The December E-mini S&P may break back into 1200 over the near-term which was a former top. If this test doesn’t attract buyers then look for a possible correction to 1193.00.


December Gold and Silver rallied to new highs for the year this week. Despite the slightly better Dollar, December Gold and December Silver continued to post strong gains. Today’s action indicates that precious metals investors are willing to compete with stock investors for funds.


The U.S. Dollar finished lower for the week, but a rally on Friday helped offer a ray of light for the Greenback.


The U.S. Dollar strengthened against most major currencies after the government said the non-farm payrolls grew by 151,000 in October, exceeding pre-market guesses. The Labor Department also revised upward payrolls for August and September. The strong showing helped keep October’s unemployment rate at 9.6%.


The strong showing from the jobs data report helped the U.S. Dollar recover some of its earlier losses particularly against the Euro and British Pound which suffered big losses. The fresh employment data helped give risky assets a boost, driving up demand for commodity sensitive currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.


The main trend is down for the Dollar against most majors, but the rate of decline seems to have slowed down. The Dollar Index remains below a swing top and downtrending Gann angle which indicates continued pressure until the market can penetrate either one of these resistance points. The inability to produce a weekly closing price reversal this week leaves this market vulnerable for a new low next week. If this occurs early in the week, then bullish traders may attempt to produce a weekly reversal once again.


Getting back to the jobs data, the economy needs to be creating at least 250,000 jobs or more to get back on track. Even though the Fed pledged $900 billion in quantitative easing earlier in the week, this doesn’t mean that employers will start hiring. Employers are waiting for consumers to step up their game before they will start bringing in new workers.


Technical signs are building in the December Japanese Yen which indicates impending volatility. Overnight the Japanese Yen had very little reaction to the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged and the release of details of its recent liquidity-injection campaign.


The December Euro was down sharply on Friday but held on to its weekly gains. Based on the short-term swing of 1.3733 to 1.4282, traders should watch for a pull-back to 1.4008 to 1.3943.


The December British Pound reversed Thursday’s rally. At the close this market was approaching an uptrending Gann angle at 1.6130. A failure to hold this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with a potential target zone at 1.5974 to 1.5897. This zone represents 50%/.618 retracement of the 1.5650 to 1.6298 range.


Friday’s strength in the Dollar appears to have shifted interest away from the Fed’s quantitative easing action from earlier in the week and back onto the economic fundamentals. This may be only a temporary condition as most traders should realize that the employment news is only a one day event so far. One key to sustaining the strength in the Dollar will be whether the jobs data can begin to form an upward trend.



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
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