Tuesday April 19, 2005 - 00:23:52 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 19th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.9017 ... 1.9045 ... 1.9060 ... 1.9096
Support....: 1.8977 ... 1.8959 ... 1.8930 ... 1.8885
Mixed - waiting for breaks
The 1.8875-92 area supported well and has generated the anticipated rally to 1.9035 and slightly higher to almost reach the lower end of the 1.9060-96 resistance. We would like to call this the peak but the structure of the rally does appear to provide a scenario calling for one additonal high and thus we need to be careful. Losses this morning have brought the Pound lower but we see support at 1.8930-59 and while this holds there does remain risk of a final rally to the 1.9060-96 area. Only above here would see gains extend to 1.9135 at least with further resistance at 1.9180.
The anticipated rally stalled just 5 pips below the 1.9060 resistance and there is a chance this will provide the top to this rally. However, we do note that the structure of the rally suggests potential for one further high and thus we need to proceed with caution today. Losses have been seen already from 1.9055 to 1.8999 and we feel there is risk of a further dip later. Thus while 1.9045 holds there is still chance of losses to reach the 1.8959 level at least and possibly 1.8930. However, only below the lower level raises the risk of losses continuing below below 1.8885 and down to the 1.8827 area. Further support is found at 1.8760-70.
Elliott Wave Comments:
18th April 2005
We have clearly had to re-evaluate the wave structure and while this is less than clear in the initial rally from 1.8590 to 1.8974 we have tentatively placed a labeling representing a double zig-zag from the 1.8590 low. This implies that the 1.8669 low was a Wave x and thus 1.8973 was Wave a with a Wave b correction to 1.8759. This should imply a move back higher to 1.9008-35 at least (representing an internal target in the rally from 1.8759) with risk to the 1.9060 level being Wave c equal to Wave a. We also note a potential Fibonacci target at 1.9096 which would imply a possible Wave -a- high in a larger triangular consolidation structure.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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