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Monday November 8, 2010 - 10:47:00 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- QE2 Conumdrum

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


QE2 Conundrum

10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Nov 8- Forex markets are still trying to digest the likely impact of the additional quantitative ease announced by the Fed last week. Some are still worried about hyper-inflation in the U.S., which would seem to be very unlikely, while others are expressing concern about the stimulus the extra liquidity will have on economies whose currencies are pegged to the USD. We do feel that this could prove to be a justifiable concern. Bottom-line, those economies who have been taking advantage of their dollar peg may be forced to make some uncomfortable adjustments. This might be the unspoken agenda of Messrs Bernanke and Geithner and does raise the risk of unintended consequences

One concern is that a couple of pieces of positive U.S. data have appeared since the Fed decision was made. They have raised the question whether QE2 was too much too late. We will have to see. The Fed could always dial back on the policy at any time but will want to be seen running a consistent policy and not be over-reacting to a couple of data points.  

No major U.S. data are due today or most of the week. Thursday sees the Veterans Day holiday for U.S. bond markets, banks and government offices. Equity markets will be open. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: North America: No major data are due from the U.S. or Canada. The U.S. will se a three-year auction.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 10:05
EUR 1.3931 -99 JPY 113.01 -100 JPY 130.77 -72
GBP 1.6120 -61 GBP 86.42 -29 CHF 155.59 12
CHF 0.9652 44 CHF 1.3446 -34 CHF vs.    
JPY 81.12 -14       JPY 84.04 -53

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         10:05
CAD 1.0026 25 AUD 1.0112 -41 Gold 1392 -1.80
CNY 6.6550 0 NZD 0.7882 -68 WTI 86.34 -1.06

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           10:05
NIK 9733 107 DAX 6739 -16 DJIA 11444 0
HSI 24964 88 FTSE 5861 -14 S&P 1226 0
SSEC 3160 115 SMI 6596 0 NAS 2579 0
ASX 4778 -22       TSE 12925 0

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


Important Notice

The information upon which Global Viewpoint, Inc. Bases its Forex analyses is obtained from sources it believes are reliable, but Global Viewpoint, Inc. Does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, timeliness or completeness of any of the information, content, views, opinions, recommendations or services, contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from any of the services contained on the Global-View site, and use of the information provided on this web site is at your sole risk. Global-View specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate any purchase, sale or trade. 

Opinions expressed on the forum pages are not necessarily those of Global Viewpoint, Inc. In using the forums you should not assume that any messages provided have been reviewed by Global- Viewpoint, inc., or that such communications contain correct information, Global Viewpoint, Inc. Disclaims any warranty, whether express or implied including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to the service or any materials and products. None of the materials presented on our web site are to be regarded as investment advice. 

In no event shall Global Viewpoint, Inc. And other information providers, be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever, with respect to the service, the materials and the products.

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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14:00 CA- BOC Decision
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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