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Tuesday November 9, 2010 - 11:08:37 GMT
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European Market Update: Risk apetite finds fresh legs (TTN)

Tuesday, November 09, 2010 5:56:17 AM

 European Market Update: Risk apetite finds fresh legs

 

***Economic Data***
- (SZ) Swiss Oct SECO Consumer Confidence: 7 v 17e

- (FI) Finland Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -€140M v -€19M prior

- (GE) Germany Oct Final Consumer Price Index M/M:0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e

- (GE) Germany Oct Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e

- (FR) Bank of France Oct Business Sentiment: 103 v 102e

- (FR) France Sept Central Govt. Balance: -€124.2 v -€122.1B prior

- (FR) France Sept Trade Balance: -€4.7B v -€3.9Be v -€4.9B prior

- (CZ) Czech Oct CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: €548M v €476Me

- (DE) Denmark Sept Current Account (DKK):9.5B v 7.5Be; Trade Balance ex-Shipping: 5.9B v 4.8Be

- (NV) Netherlands Sept Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 13.5% v 15.0% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 10.6% v 15.0% prior

- (UK) Sept Visible Trade Balance: -£8.2B v -£8.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -£4.6B v -£4.5Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.6B v -£4.5Be

- (UK) Sept Industrial Production M/M:0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e


- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.9%e

- (GR) Greece Oct Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.4%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.4%e

- (GR) Greece Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.1% v -2.1% prior


Fixed Income:

- (SA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B in R203 and R207 Bonds; as expected

- (NV) Netherland Debt Agency (DSTA) sells €3.2B vs. €2.5-3.0B Indicated in 3.5% 2020 Bonds; avg yield 2.606% v 2.799% prior

- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (
PDMA) sold €390M vs. €300M Indicated in 26-week Bills; avg yield 4.82% v 4.54% prior; Bid-to-Cover: 5.15x v 4.22x prior; Foreign take in auction around 33%

- ECB allotted €175.0B in main 7-Day Refi Operations and €63.6B in 1-month Tender at fixed 1.0%

- ((AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sells total €1.00 vs €1.0B indicated in 2015 and 2020 Bonds

- Sold €500M in 3.5% July 2015; avg yield 1.816% v 1.912% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.07x v 3.3x prior

- Sold €500M in 3.9% July 2020 avg yield 2.827% v 3.008% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2,90x v 2.80x prior

- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells
HUF40B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.24% v 5.24% prior

- (UK) DMO sells £700M in 1.25% 2055 Index-Linked Gilts; avg yield 0.619% v 0.614% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.11x v 2.28x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
Notes/Observations:

- QE2 Fallout - China yields on 0ne-year Bills rise to 2.3437% from 2.2913% prior
-
China FX Regulator
SAFE vows to crack down on "hot money" and will "strictly" punish non-compliant banks

- The Euribor Fixing saw the 3M rate register its first daily decline in 31and off 16-month highs

- Far East and Middle Eastern Sovereign buyers of Euro takes pair off session lows of 1.3825
- Swaps Show PBOC to Raise Rates 4 times over the next 12 months to 3.5%

- Peripheral spreads continue to widen despite EU assurances of austerity efforts


Equities:

EuroStoxx at 2893, +0.9%, FTSE100 at 5897, +0.8%, CAC40 at 3942, +0.7%, DAX at 6,799 +0.7%


- Despite pressures from resurfacing European debt concerns and equities retreat in Asia, markets opened in positive territory and hit two-year high during the session following a string of positive corporate earnings.
Banks were trading lower but Barclays [BARC.UK] gained 2.6% at the
London open, although shares slipped in negative territory during the session. The pretax profit had decreased but bank noted that it was due to a one-time charge. Also weighing on its earnings was a loss of £182M in Barclays Capital, the investment banking unit. Revenue had also declined due to a decline of 14% in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodity and Equities had declined by 34%. Bank said that while Basel III may hamper its ability to generate earnings, it will not need to raise new capital.
- In the
UK, retailer Marks and Spencer published its first half results posting an increase in its adjusted pretax profit, which came slightly below estimates, nonetheless. Like for like sales had also increase but the group said that trading conditions remained tough and took a cautious stance for the remainder of this year and in 2011. Shares lost about 3%. Publisher Yell Group [YELL.UK] reported a decrease of 8.9% in revenues and guided Q3 revenues to be down 12% and did not expect an improvement in revenue during the fourth quarter. Shares sank 14%. Meanwhile, Vodafone rose 1.8% after reporting better than expected results and boosting its profit. Company cited its higher than expected revenue growth in each of the Group's regions.

- Out of
Germany, reinsurer Munich Re [MUV2.GE] beat estimates and raised its 2010 after tax profit to €2.4B on a higher investment income and favorable claims environment. It also guided its 2011 net profit at €2.0-2.4B range. Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] is trading higher by 3% after posting better than expected earnings and raising its lower end of EBIT guidance. Company cited freight revenue which had increased to €3.7B from €2.7B a year ago. Company benefitted from economic growth and increasing trade in Asia.
- Swiss staffing name Addeco [ADEN.SZ] reported Q3 earnings significantly exceeding analysts estimates. Company does not see any signs of slowdown. Shares gained almost 4%,
Hermes [RMS.FR] also surprised positively and raised its FY10 revenue growth target at 15% from12%. Shares gained 6%.


Speakers:

- China PBoC advisor Li Daokui urged key countries to ensure basic exchange rate stability to aid global recovery and expressed concerned that US QE2 measures could fuel inflation. He stated that
China did not aim for the yuan to replace the USD as the most important global currency but sought a "reasonable" global monetary system. He later commented that the US should commit to achieving the current account target of 4% and highlighted that some countries are opposed to the US proposal. Li noted that China's 2010 and 2011 C/A surplus would be below 4% to GDP target.

-
Ireland Fin Min Lenihan commented that he discussed broadening the tax base with EU Commissioner Rehn but did not address increasing corporate tax. He described the meeting as cordial and believed that the EU was willing to listen

- IEA World Energy Outlook noted that oil demand and price were set to grow steadily over the next 25 years despite environmental policies, essentially dooming climate-change goal. The IEA forecasted oil prices over $100/barrel in 2015 and at $200/barrel by 2035. It lowered its 2035 oil demand outlook to 99M bpd vs. 105M bps prior view. It noted that that all net growth in oil demand to 2035 to come from non-OECD countries with half from
China alone. It saw fuel subsidies hitting $600B by 2015 vs $312B in 2009


Currencies:

- Again the primary focus was on euro zone peripheral debt, which continued its widening mode to post EMU levels for
Ireland and Greece. To summarize that the European debt concerns have been present since mid-year, but have intensified over the past week with the EU's Budget assessment of Ireland, fears Greece would back away from earlier fiscal commitments, and less lenient treatment proposed by Germany for bondholders. The European morning started off on a bumpy road as the peripherals dominated flows despite supportive remarks from EU Commission Rehn after he endorsed its Ireland's budget plans after yesterday's European close.
However, the EUR/USD was off its session lows with reported aid from sovereign accounts bidding on approach of 1.3830 area. The EUR/JPY tried to approach the post BOJ solo intervention low of 111.40 but fell about 30 pips short and climbed back above 112 handle mid-morning.

- The Euribor Fixing saw the 3M rate register its first daily decline in 31 sessions

- The softer USD tone in the session was reflected with precious metals containing their upward trend in session with spot gold hitting fresh all-time high above $1,420.00/oz; spot Silver at fresh 30-year highs just shy of 28.50/oz and spot Palladium topping 9-year highs at $717.50/oz. the IEA global outlook had little effect on front-month NYMEX crude at it was little changed at $87.03/barrel.

- As the NY morning approached the EUR/USD was at 1.3924, up 65 pips from the
Tokyo open and 100 pips off session lows. USD/CHF was lower by 70 pips at 0.9603 and GBP/USD at trading at 1.6140, higher by almost 30 pips.
- The JPY was well off its best levels against the European pairs. EUR/JPY at



Geopolitical/In the papers:
- In press reports, one of Ireland's leading economist Morgan Kelly commented that bailout of Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland will require €70B rather than €50B estimated. The cost to taxpayers of both banks will be equivalent to Anglo Irish. He goes on to state that the impending mortgage crisis will make
Ireland effectively insolvent.
- In the upcoming inflation report by the Bank of England may not shed light on whether the central bank will implement additional quantitative easing measures. The article in the Telegraph mentioned that in the inflation report, the Bank of England is expected to signal large uncertainties related to its growth and inflation forecasts, which leaves the option to move monetary policy in either direction. The Bank's governor King is expected to indicate that more easing is still on the table, if growth slows sharply. Note the inflation report is due for release on Wednesday.



***Looking Ahead ***

- (PO) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: No est v -€1.6B prior - 6:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.7% prior

- 7:00 (EU) ECB expected to drain €64.0B in 7-day Term deposit Tender

- 7:30 (US) Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism: 90e v 89 prior

- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior

- 8:30 (EU) EU's Rehn Speaks in Dublin

- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales

- 10:00 (US) Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.0e v 46.4 prior

- 10:00 (US) Sept Wholesale Inventories: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior

- 10:00 (UK) Oct NIESR GDP Estimate: no est v 0.5% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6%ev 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 3.7% prior; Core CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Final Trade Balance: No est v -$560M prelim

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Vehicle production: No est v 197.4K prior; Vehicle sales: No est v 65.9K prior; Vehicle exports: No est v 1.7K

- 10:00 (EU) EU Commission issues reports on Turkey, Iceland, Balkan Entry Bids

- 12:00 (EU) EU's Fule Speaks to Parliamentary Committee
- 12:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Governor Carney speaks in Geneva - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes - 13:30 (GE) EU President Van Rompuy Gives Speech in Berlin
- 15:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand Financial Stability Report

- 15:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank Financial Stability Report

- 16:30 (US) EIA Weekly Energy Inventories

- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Nov 7th: No est v -46 prior
- (CH) China Oct Trade balance; Exports Y/Y: 23.0%e v 25.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: 28.3%e v 24.1% prior

 

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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