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Tuesday November 9, 2010 - 16:45:42 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Tuesday, November 09, 2010 11:12:34 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -23 S&P -1 NASDAQ +1

***Economic Data***
- (PO) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: -1.5B v -€1.6B prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.1%e
- (EU) ECB drained €64.0B in 7-day Term deposit Tender; recd 50 bids totaling €72.7B
- (US) Oct
NFIB Small Business Optimism: 91.7 v 90e
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Nov 6th: +1.3% w/w; +3.4% y/y
- (CA) Canada Sept New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 6th: +2.6% y/y; MTD: 0.0% v Oct
- (US) Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.7 v 47.0e
- (US) Sept Wholesale Inventories: 1.5% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Oct NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.5% v 0.8% prior
- (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e;; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e; Core
CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (MX) Mexico Sept Final Trade Balance: -$560M v -$560M prelim

- For the third straight session US equity markets are not finding much in the way of upside momentum, but remain close to fresh multi-month highs. The dollar remained a bit firmer overnight thanks to continuing European peripheral debt fears, but regardless European equity markets met or surpassed April highs. The Dollar index has drifted lower since the open of equity trade in NY as surging commodity prices weigh on the greenback. Monthly reports out of the USDA are sending cotton, grains, soybeans and other soft commodities higher. Gold continues to glimmer, with the December contract now just off fresh all time-highs above $1420 while silver makes fresh 30-year highs and copper trades above $4 for the first time in 2 years. US the Commerce Department's September wholesale inventories report was much better than expected, and the non-auto component indicates the second reading of Q3 GDP may be higher. Treasury prices are marginally lower with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points in the day at 2.57% ahead of this afternoons 10-year note auction.

- Atlas Energy is up sharply after Chevron stated that it would acquire the shale gas firm for $4.3B in cash. The deal is valued at $43.34/shr, for a 37% premium to Atlas's closing price on Nov 8. Chevron is looking to beef up its market position in the shale gas business by acquiring assets in the Marcellus region. Other shale gas names are up 7-9% on the deal, including Range Resources, McDermott, Cabot Oil & Gas and Petrohawk. In other acquisition news, there were reports that Alibaba was holding talks with private equity firms regarding a deal to buyout Yahoo's 40% stake in Alibaba. Note that there has been increased chatter in recent days about deal talks aiming to break up Yahoo's assets.

- In earning, Sara Lee came in comfortably ahead of expectations in its first quarter report. The food company also announced that it would divest its North American fresh bakery business to Grupo Bimbo for $959M and concentrate its business on core coffee and protein categories. SLE is up 3%. Dean Foods missed earnings targets in its Q3 report by a wide margin, citing adverse conditions in its milk and dairy related businesses. DF is down more than 15%. beat top- and bottom-line expectations and crushed analysts targets in its Q4 outlook. PCLN is up nearly 10%.

- The dollar maintained a soft tone throughout the
New York morning as both industrial and soft commodities continued their parabolic ride. The market was waiting for a potential gesture from China ahead of the G20 Leader Summit (perhaps a rate hike or a widening of the trading band) but instead saw the Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit downgrade US sovereign credit rating a notch to "A+" from "AA", citing QE2. This was the second cut this year by Dagong on the US sovereign outlook. IMF's Eyzaguirre commented that the Fed might embark on a third round of QE. EUR/USD was off session highs and trading near 1.3935 midway through the New York session. USD/JPY was within striking distance of fresh lows.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (EU) EU's Fule Speaks to Parliamentary Committee
- 12:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Governor Carney speaks in Geneva
-13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 13:30 (GE) EU President Van Rompuy Gives Speech in Berlin
- 15:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand Financial Stability Report
- 15:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank Financial Stability Report
- 16:30 (US) EIA Weekly Energy Inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Nov 7th: No est v -46 prior
- (CH) China Oct Trade balance; Exports Y/Y: 23.0%e v 25.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: 28.3%e v 24.1% prior



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